Anti-Terrorist operation: Daily Summary, July 29, 2014

30/07/2014

6 minute read

War is a barbarous proceeding when we attack a peaceful neighbor, but it is a sacred duty when undertaken in defence of one’s country.
– Guy de Maupassant

By Roman Burko

Donetsk Region: Border Area

Last night terrorists tried to recapture Savur-Mohyla from the ATO forces. This elevation, mentioned earlier, is of strategic importance because it allows for control over a significant part of the border and is essential for the resupply of the ATO group that advances in the Dolzhanskyi direction. Furthermore, if the Russian Federation sends troops over the border from Kuibyshevo, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will present serious difficulties for such a maneuver utilizing the elevation of Savur-Mohyla. For this reason control of this hill has been strongly contests since the Ukrainian Armed forces seized the hill. Fighting over the hill is likely to continue until Ukrainian forces liberate Snizhne. The militants in Snizhne have a very convenient position for offensive operations in the area, operating from the `10th mine’; the waste bank of the mine allowing for examination and sweeping fire of Savur-Mohyla.

Donetsk Region: South of Donetsk City

Last night there was an attempt to draw the ATO forces into combat in the Donetsk-Volnovakha direction: the terrorists shelled a checkpoint of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine. It is likely that attacks in this direction will happen from time to time because this direction provides an outlet to Mariupol and further into Crimea by the sea. Given that the Starobesheve direction is more or less blocked, this direction remains one of the few options to fall back.

Donetsk Region: East of Donetsk/Torez area

Increased terrorist activity was observed in the Khartsyzk-Shakhtarsk area over the last 24 hours as well. The road that passes through these cities connects Donetsk with Krasnodon and the Russian Federation, and is a critical supply route for the DNR forces in Donesk. For this reason fighting in the Kharthsyzk-Zuhres-Shakhtarsk and Snizhne-Torez-Shakhtarsk areas will be frequent and intense, at least until the ATO forces consolidate in Shakhtarsk.

Donetsk Region: North of Donesk/Horlivka

Yesterday’s ATO’s offensive in the area of Krasnyi Partyzan (small settlement south west of Horlivka) was probably not expected by the terrorists. Thanks to this maneuver it was possible to solve the problem of breaching fortified area near Shumy head on (north of Horlivka), and attack Shumy from the direction of Krsnyi Partyzan towards the rear line of the fortifications along the railroad in Horlivka. It is at this stage that the terrorists threatened to blow up “Styrol” enterprise (the large ammonia mine) and filter stations with tanks of chlorine.

Furthermore, in order to secure the rears of the Ukrainian forces advancing towards Horlivka, there were several successful attacks in the direction of Avdiivka although the area has not yet been completely secured from terrorists units.

Luhansk Region

Heightened terrorist activity was observed in Alchevsk, which is situated along the main Donetsk/Luhansk motorway. Yesterday the militants introduced curfew restrictions. This is probably due to covert regrouping of the striking forces, similar to how it was done in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk where all main movements of militants occurred at night.

Terrorists also began to strengthen their position in settlements along the Krasnyi Luch-Debaltseve highway; in response to the ATO seizure of Delbatseve and the continued offensive in that area.

In addition, the terrorists started to strengthen their defensive positions in Rovenky which is also related to the capture of Savur-Mohyla by Ukrainian forces. Roveky has becomes a significant staging point, and essential to the militants preventing the complete encirclement of Luhansk by ATO, cut off the city from resupply from the Russian Federation (of Enslaved People). In the near future continuation of attacks towards Chervonopartyzansk and BCP Dolzhanskyi can be expected; this is similar to what happened of the night of the 28th.

Maneuvers from Russia and the Militants

In addition to the counterattack options explored above, we can expect provocative attacks from the direction of the Russian Federation, namely in the area of Kuibyshevo, Gukovo (towards Svedolovsk) and Novoshakhtinsk.

It is noteworthy that the border in the Krasnodon area of Luhansk region (Izvaryne, Sjevernyi, Popivka, Velykyi Sukhodil, Parkhomenko, Kruzhylivka) is almost completely open. That area is a quite large territory which is a significant gap in the state border. Therefore large terrorist groupings constantly filter through that gap from the Russian Federation.

Residents of Sukhodilsk (Krasnodon area of Luhansk region) constantly observe movement of Russian armored vehicles supplied to terrorists. In the village of Krasnodon (not to be confused with the adjacent city of the same name) in the territory of “Avtoagregat” factory, an accumulation of armored vehicles is observed. It is possible that the forces concentrated in that area are used as a reserve for reinforcement of militants. Another base of terrorist vehicles is located in the area of Orekhovska mine (Molodohvardiisk).

It has been noted that the Russian military constantly conducts reconnaissance missions with drones in the areas adjacent to the Black Sea (in particular, Odesa and Kherson regions). We constantly receive information about UAVs from local residents and security officials.

While out of the ATO zone, care should be taken in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions as there are considerable forces of the Russian military concentrated in the border areas.

International

In the international arena we observe strengthening of sectoral sanctions against the Russian Federation. For the past day the United States of America, Canada and the European Union continued pressure on the Russian Federation demanding to stop the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and withdraw the militants from the territory of Ukraine. Strengthening of the sanctions happened also because the Russian Federation and the terrorists forces under its control prevent investigation of the MH17 crash. In his speech, the President of the United States of America recalled that the images from the US satellites confirmed the facts of aggression from the Russian Federation against Ukraine and the shelling of Ukrainian troops from the Russian territory.

The new sanctions isolate Russian banks from international capital markets, and prevent the Russian defense industry and the energy sector from being able to secure new western technologies.

[hr]Edited by Larry Field

Русский: Антитеррористическая операция в Украине. Сводка за 29.07.14
Українська: Антитерористична операція в Україні. Зведення за 29.07.14
Deutsch: Anti-Terror-Operation in der Ukraine. Zusammenfassung für 29. Juli 2014

Source: burkonews.info

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February 7: The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine

February 7 – 5 Ukrainian military were killed and 26 injured in the conflict area in Donbas in the last 24 hours, – informedVolodymyr Polevyi, deputy head of the Information Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during Munich Security Conference. NATO Secretary General has said that the alliance is strengthening collective security system as well as spoke about providing political and practical support to Ukraine on behalf of NATO.

February 7 – The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, – said on Saturday in MunichSupreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, Gen. Philip Breedlove, writes Spiegel Online. "We are not talking about sending troops to Ukraine," – said Breedlove. In addition, he called Vladimir Putin's proposals on the resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine "totally unacceptable".

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has held tripartite talks with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Vice President Joe Biden – "The parties have coordinated further steps and stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire as well as continued dialogue on the implementation of all provisions of the Minsk agreements".

February 7 – Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has publicized intercepted conversations, which suggest that Russian military are provoking clashes between the ATO forces and militants of "People's Republic of Donetsk". They must be getting new "arguments" ready for Putin's negotiations.

February 7 – Armed Forces and the National Guards of Ukraine have received new military equipment – a modernized armored vehicle "Spartan", equipped with heavy machine gun and "Stugna" missiles.

February 7 – Ukraine is ready to support ceasefire at any time, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in his comments to journalists at Munich Security Conference. Whereas the issues of state's federal structure or the autonomy of certain regions (Putin's wishes), may only be decided at a national referendum, not in Moscow or Berlin. All is needed for peace in Donbas is closed borders with Russian Federation and withdrawal of Russian troops, not peacekeeping forces. In his speech at Munich Security Conference, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko presented the passports and military service cards of Russian soldiers who "must have gotten lost in Ukraine" and were detained by Ukrainian military.

Near Debaltseve after attack Russian terrorists appeared "cemetery" Russian tanks (video).

Poroshenko in Munich (20 min)

By Taras Kuzio

Arm Ukraine and force Putin back to the negotiating table

Russia, despite its repeated denials, is sending large quantities of military equipment to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine along with 9,000 of its troops. Movement of Russian forces, including the Pantsir-S1 missile system, are being tracked by think tanks and western intelligence agencies. Only Russian professional (not conscript) troops and intelligence officers can operate highly sophisticated Russian military equipment – not irregular separatist forces.

Respected Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer has concluded that the aim of Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, is to destroy Ukraine's independence by installing a satrap in Kiev similar to Chechen warlord Razman Kadyrov, thereby ending Kiev's goal of integration into Europe.

Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Kiev should deal with the separatists by buying them off with autonomy and money as he had in Chechnya, which to her was unacceptable.

Russia and its separatist proxies have never abided by the September Minsk peace accords and last month tore them up and demand a new agreement that would lend legitimacy to their territorial gains. Military assaults have claimed a growing number of civilian lives, including 40 in rocket attacks on the port city of Mariupol and a Luhansk hospital, with the total number of civilians killed rising to 5, 500, according to the UN. Growing numbers of combatants continue to die on both sides, as illustrated by these gruesome photos of a column of 16 Russian and separatist tanks that was destroyed yesterday.

In the face of the new Russian-backed offensive, pressure on US President Barack Obama to send defensive military equipment to Ukraine is becoming ever more intense. The release of a report for the Atlantic Council of the US by eight US ambassadors calling for military assistance was published along with a crescendo of commentaries in The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times (here, here andhere), The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The Washington Post, The New York Times, The American Interest, The Christian Science Monitor, The Atlantic, The New York Post, The Boston Globe, The Los Angeles Times and Spiegel Online.

This chorus of support was backed by influential former US National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. A bipartisan group led by Republican and Democratic Senators Rob Portman and Dick Durbin called for military assistance to Ukraine "to defend its sovereign borders against escalating Russian aggression".

The New York Times reported that the US was considering supplying arms to Ukraine, something reportedly confirmed by Douglas Lute, the US Ambassador to Nato. Ashton Carter, President Obama's choice to become his fourth Defence Secretary, said three days later he was "very much inclined" to provide arms to Ukraine to fight Russian-backed separatists.

Ukraine has been seeking western weapons since the summer of last year but so far has received only non-lethal equipment such as winter clothing, bullet proof vests and night vision goggles. The US did send 20 light counter-mortar radars late last year and, with two-decades of cooperation in Nato's Partnership for Peace programme, is beginning to train four companies of Ukraine's National Guard.

Arguments against the supply of weapons, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "look increasingly naïve". Nevertheless, Canadian commentators have pointed to Ukrainian corruption (see here and here) and the presence of "UkrainianNazis" as a way perhaps to justify the Stephen Harper government's decision not to providie military support. High levels of corruption never stopped the supply of Canadian military equipment and special force trainers to Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. Although Putin and the Russian media have repeatedly raised accusations of"fascism" in Ukraine, it is the Russian (rather than the Ukrainian) regime that more closely resembles the political science definition of "fascism".

Nato will not send weapons to Ukraine but the UK, Poland and Canada would follow the US lead. President Obama is fighting against his own Democratic party if he sticks with the position of Chancellor Merkel, who continues to put naïve faith in a peaceful solution.

Economic sanctions (helped by falling oil prices) have not discouraged Putin's reckless and bloody intervention in eastern Ukraine. Some of those advocating military support to Ukraine believe – as in the 1980s through weapons supplied to the Afghan Mujahedeen – that only a growing number of casualties will force realignment in Russian policy to that of public opinion, two thirds of which is against intervention in eastern Ukraine.

The Donbas conflict, engineered and sustained by Moscow, is already Europe's worst security challenge since World War II. There have been 40 close military encountersin the air between Russia and the west since the annexation of the Crimea in March last year. Putin believes he is fighting a "Nato legion" through alleged Ukrainian proxies and has always claimed the Euromaidan revolution was a western-backed coup. Russian soldiers dying at the hands of western weapons would return the world to the Cold War of the 1980s, although it remains unclear which US congressman would today step up as the new Charlie Wilson.

Putin will stop his destabilisation of Ukraine and return to negotiations only when western arms equalise both sides on the battlefield.

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute forUkrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.

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