Putin has decided to create Transnistria-2 according to the Crimean scenario.
The Chechen “green men” and weapons will be transferred here and we will hear much nonsense about the renewal of the military-industrial complex of the Luhansk Oblast.
1. Putin’s motives. Putin is not ready for large-scale intervention. First of all, he does not have the necessary morale. But he is extremely concerned that, at the current rate, in three to four weeks nothing will be left of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR). This will not be understood in Russia and, equally important, some 10-15 thousand angry and insulted gentlemen of fortune will return to Russia. They, naturally, could be neutralized physically, but it is a complicated scenario that could fail in 3-4 years when the necessity arises to carry out a “Donbas” operation somewhere in Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Baltic countries, or central Asia. This is why Putin’s assignment today is to force the EU to pressure Ukraine to end ATO (antiterrorist operation) and declare the Donbas a territory with uncertain status. This requires not just the transport of troops, but especially of children.
It is the children that will become the major information trump card during negotiations with the West. This is why the children are being so blatantly removed from the shelters for attempted transfer to Russia. In the mind of (Dmitry) Kiselev (right-wing head of Russia’s official news agency — Ed.) an outline of a plan already exists: the orphaned children cross the Ukrainian border and scumbags dressed in Ukrainian military uniforms shoot them. It may sound terrible, but if the Russians are not able to remove the orphans from Donetsk, they will prepare provocations and actually shoot dozens of children. This is exactly why Olena Bondarenko (Party of Regions MP close to Yanukovych — Ed.) proclaims daily on all broadcast stations that the Ukrainian army is an army that kills children. This is becoming a major theme of Russian propaganda. How could it not bring to mind the story on ORT TV (Russian public television — Ed.) where some refugee described that on the central square in Sloviansk, the Ukrainian military crucified a three-year-old child.
2. Israeli lessons for Putin. After today’s announcement by the Russians that Ukraine has released a bomb on Russian territory, the Federation Council announced that Russia could apply precision bombing in Ukraine. If that happens — and the probability is very high — Russians will say that Israel is behaving exactly the same way. Would Ukraine be able to respond in kind? Today it would be impossible, and all super patriots need to understand it. We must avoid a full-scale war. We should call for meetings of the Security Council, shout at the OSCE, but above all not give Putin the possibility to unleash a war.
3. How Donbas-Transnistria will live. Last week Russian court pollsters released a new poll according to which two thirds of Russians do not want the annexation of the Donbas. Now this kind of survey could not have materialized out of thin air. It was sanctioned in the Kremlin, and it is a signal for the West that Putin does not want any aggression. His short-term plan is very similar to the Crimean one — every day the Donbas will fill up with new Chechen men, who will regularly cross the border and join the ranks of terrorists. A propaganda campaign about the restoration of the military-industrial complex in the Donbas will serve as window dressing.
In order to understand the absurdity of such a campaign it is enough to cite one example: the militants have declared they are renewing production in the Luhansk cartridge factory and have already brought in specialists and equipment from Barnaul, Russia. However, there is one problem: this factory produces ammunition according to local standards, and it is simply impossible to prepare the production of cartridges for Soviet weapons in a very short period of time. Similarly, repairing heavy armor in the “October Revolution” factory, as the separatists want to do, is completely impossible.
These are precisely the myths that will be circulated by the media. In a week, on Kiselev’s program we will see the first tank driving out of the shop of some factory and a plane being built in another. Actually, everything that is happening is a somewhat complicated Crimean scenario with one peculiarity. The Kremlin is not preparing to annex this territory. Putin wants to stabilize the DNR-LNR borders by expanding them to the maximum in order to extend the expansion to other areas.
4. Why does Vekselberg need this? Together with the gentlemen of fortune, emissaries from big business are arriving in our area. The best example — the PR operative of Vekselberg (Russian oligarch close to the Kremlin — Ed.), who heads up the government of LNR. Much has been written about the fact that Russians do not trust the homegrown governors and rely only on their own agents. More interesting is why the large businessmen need this. One logical answer becomes evident. Russian business understands that if Putin wins, a massive redistribution of property will take place. Naturally, no one promises anything yet. But anyone who dares to take a risk now may have every chance to win later.
5. Akhmetov’s PR or separatism in Mariupol-2. Right now the entire Internet is filled with the agitation by pro-Akhmetov deputies, who are saying that the Donbas must be pacified according to the Mariupol scenario. Therefore, local teams must be created and these teams need to restore order in the cities. A reasonable question arises: who is keeping Akhmetov from creating teams in Krasnodon or Rovenky? Nobody. However, he will not create them because his longtime friend Viktor Medvedchuk is telling him that all this idiocy needs to be taken to the masses without doing anything. The essence of this idiocy is a softened version of the declaration that the Ukrainian army is the army of child killers. Medvedchuk is lobbying for the creation of a territory of uncertain status and promises immunity to Akhmetov.
The plan is simple — the army withdraws, and Medvedchuk, together with Akhmetov, unexpectedly introduces order in the Donbas. This, of course, would not be acceptable to any politician in Ukraine, but Akhmetov believes for some reason that Medvedchuk will be able to guarantee something for him. In fact, we must not forget that, among other things, a possible scenario is heating up with a new round of separatism in this same Mariupol. After a while, when sufficient numbers of Chechen “green men” arrive in Ukraine, fighting may begin near the Azov Sea under the slogan “They haven’t heard us and they’re killing children.”
6. Why doesn’t Poroshenko arrest Yefremov? The question of Yefremov’s (head of the parliamentary faction of Party of Regions — Ed.) imprisonment is a matter of national importance. Until the government arrests him, everyone will understand that Poroshenko is not fighting separatism seriously. Why won’t he arrest him? The only answer that suggests itself is that he has not yet matured to real lustration. It is much easier to create media noise and renew the Gongadze case, which will never reach any conclusion.
7. What should be done? There is only one answer — fight. And, additionally, it would not be a bad thing to see Yefremov in prison.[hr] By Vadym Denysenko, DsNews, July 13, 2014
Translated by Anna Mostovych