Russian Forces on Belarusian Border Ready for ‘Full-Scale Proxy War,’ Minsk Expert Says

Russian tanks in the Russian town of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, bordering Belarus on 5 June 2016. Photo by RFE/RL

Russian tanks in the Russian town of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, bordering Belarus on 5 June 2016. Photo by RFE/RL 

2016/07/20 • Analysis & Opinion

Staunton, July 1 – Yury Tsarik, a Belarusian security analyst, says that the strengthening of Russian forces on the Belarusian border and the fact that they are being kept in field conditions rather than installed in new bases shows that Moscow is ready to conduct “a full-scale proxy war” against Belarus and the West.

Tsarik, who is the chairman of the observers council of the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Research, says that no one should be deceived by Moscow’s current charm offensive because the Kremlin is putting far more forces on its Western border than any NATO strengthening could justify.

The Russian forces opposite Belarus are approaching the size and armament of the forces Moscow used in the Donbas and may exceed it by year’s end.

He told Kseniya Kirillova, a US-based Russian analyst that what is especially worrisome is that the large groups of Russian forces that have been moved up to the Belarusian border are not being installed in new bases but rather kept in ’field’ conditions, a pattern that suggests Moscow may plan to use them in the near future.

“According to specialists,” Tsarik says, “Russian forces which have been concentrated on the Belarusian border will be sufficiently numerous for the conduct of a full-scale proxy war on the territory of Belarus.” Indeed, the Russian forces opposite Belarus are approaching the size and armament of the forces Moscow used in the Donbas and may exceed it by year’s end.

He suggests that what will happen next depends in large measure on whether the West decided to dispense with the Minsk Process and decide at the NATO summit in Warsaw to provide more help to Ukraine. If that happens, Russia will certainly increase its “military activity in Ukraine” and may move on Belarus.

“Moscow cannot allow the realization of ‘an aid package’ for the reform of the Ukrainian armed forces from NATO because if such a reform were successful, the Ukrainian army would become a factor which would restrict the regional military domination of Russia,” the Belarusian analyst says.

The Russian leadership is counting on “the destruction of Euro-Atlantic unity, the further erosion of the EU and NATO, [and] the disintegration of the United Kingdom” to keep the West from acting and reducing the attractiveness of the West as “a reliable partner” to the countries in between NATO and Russia.

The Belarusian government is fully aware of what Moscow is doing and has responded by increasing its purchase of military equipment from China and elsewhere. It has accelerated its own defense modernization and is training to respond to “hybrid threats.”  And the army has been assigned responsibility for coping with terrorist actions or evidence they are being prepared.

Thus, Tsarik says, if until now, the military would act only after a terrorist incident, now it is prepared to act against those who appear to be planning one.  All this is intended, the analyst says, to strengthen Belarusian defenses and thus reduce Moscow’s ability to put pressure on Minsk by insisting as it has since the start of the Ukrainian crisis on “’a single military organization of the Union State.”

Source: Window on Eurasia

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  • Kruton

    Death to the Bolshevik savages!

  • Dagwood Bumstead

    I’m surprised that Pedo Putolini still hasn’t made a move on Belarus yet. The country is riddled with Dwarfstan moles, especially in the armed forces and KGB. It’s not as if there would be any organised resistance, as the opposition is already pretty much neutralised. The takeover can be done in a few days; the dwarf has nothing to fear from the west as his dear friends Frau Ribbentrop Adolfina Merkelain and her henchman Napoleon Hollandier will ensure that there will be nothing more than a few verbal protests- certainly no increase in sanctions or anything else really serious.

    • Czech Mate

      maybe the military incursion is a backup option in case it doesn’t go smoothly…

  • Czech Mate

    It’s Olympics time soon. Putler’s favourite time for war…

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      But Pedo Putolini’s dope-riddled “athletes” may not be present in Rio, if the IOC sees sense.
      The last thing Putolini needs is for an invasion by “little green men” to see Belarus actually resist. Although I consider this unlikely because of the massive penetration of the Belarusian armed forces and KGB by (pro-) Dwarfstan moles to an even greater extent than in the Ukraine, we may be surprised. Putolini needs a very quick Crimea-like success. If the “little green men” result in active resistance he will have a third war on his hands which he can ill afford.

      • Czech Mate

        who knows they could still make it to Ukraine only through Belarus as much as weird as it sounds…

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          It doesn’t sound weird at all. It’s why I’m surprised Putolini hasn’t seized Belarus yet. It would give Kyiv an extra umpteen kms of border to actively protect, increasing its defence problems.
          For Putolini invading and annexing Belarus only gives benefits. He can present it to the people of Dwarfstan as a next step on the road to restoring the country’s greatness. He gets rid of Lukashenko, who hasn’t been as compliant as expected. He can increase the size of Dwarfstan’s armed forces by adding those of Belarus. He can finally get extra bases from which to launch another attack on the Ukraine. The benefits to Dwarfstan are considerable, the risks negligible. The west will do nothing. If you are the dwarf, what’s NOT to like about seizing Belarus?

          • Czech Mate

            Plus he gets the REAL CHUNK of buffer zone against the nazi West, one he lost in Ukraine…

  • zorbatheturk

    Putin the Cockroach.