Ukraine gets hold of Russian plan for large-scale invasion

A map of possible Russian invasion into Ukraine developed by https://www.stratfor.com in March 2015, which well illustrates the current scenario

A map of possible Russian invasion into Ukraine developed by https://www.stratfor.com in March 2015, which well illustrates the current scenario  

2015/06/17 • Politics

Article by: Nicole Gallina

Specialists from the group “Mirotvorets” acquired documents from the Russian General Staff that confirm Russia’s intentions to invade and occupy the Ukrainian territories east of the Dnipro river.

The General Staff of the western military disctrict already agreed on the plan at the beginning of April in Petersburg – and wanted it to be carried out in spring/early summer 2015. It forsees to skirt big cities, and to cut communication lines and destroy infrastructure within 15 days. Such an operation would be carried out by battalion tactical groups (BTG) of the Russian regular army – as Dmytro Tymchuk (Information Resistance) also has repeatedly underlined in his military updates.

The invasion would be backed by massacres of civilians – in order to blame the Ukrainian army and justify the advance – and be again disguised as “DNR/LNR”-operation. It would be split into two parts: first an attack of the Kharkiv/Donetsk oblasts, then of Poltava, Kyiv and Chernihiv. The increasing activities of (Belo) Russian military on the border with Ukraine support those intentions (see the most recent military exercises).

The Russian southern military district for its part worked out a plan to attack Zaporizhzhiya and Melitopol in order to open up a corridor to Crimea.

We can assume there are similar plans with Transnistria, according to recent Russian propaganda and military activities in the region.

Editor’s note: Such an invasion had been predicted as one of Russia’s possible military options in Ukraine back in March 2015 by the Stratfor geopolitical intelligence firm. Earlier, in February 2015, the Russian independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta published a plan to take over parts of Ukraine that was brought into the Russian presidential administration in February 2014.

Edited by: Alya Shandra

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  • puttypants

    NATO, USA where are you? Are you going to allow Putin to get away with this?

    • Peter K

      According to some news sites (UNIAN, Censor.net) Herashchenko said that the Russians had planned the invasion for April or May. It is now June, so hopefully that means that this operation will not be carried out. Herashchenko also said that the Ukrainian government had known about this plan since April and shared it with the US, which prompted the US decision to store heavy armor and artillery in Eastern Europe.

      • Nomid

        Exactly… I think the big push is on hold, Tzar Vladimir the short has met many unforseen problems with his plans. I bet there have been even worse plans from the beginning to take over even bigger parts (if not the whole) of Ukraine, the question is how serious the Russian MOD have been considering these when so much of their progress have been ruined because the Ukrainians have put up such a good fight

  • Dagwood Bumstead

    Does the Dwarfstan army actually have the capability to hold onto this area for a long time? Personally I doubt it. If not, the excercise is pointless. How many soldiers would the dwarf need to control this territory in the face of an increasingly hostile population and the very real possibility of serious guerrilla warfare? It can only be done by removing masses of troops from the whole country, not a smart thing to do in the face of increased unrest in central Asia and China’s increasing assertiveness, as well as Kadyrov’s. With the Far East and Siberia stripped of troops, Peking may well be tempted to accelerate its programme for reclaiming territories lost to the Tsar in 1856 and 1860.
    Furthermore, will the people of Dwarfstan be prepared to accept the heavy casualties such an extensive operation would inevitably result in? The limited operations in the Donbass have already caused heavy losses to the army’s specialised forces- paratrooper and spetsnaz units- and these elite troops are not replaced easily. There is little support for war with Kyiv as it is. Hiding casualties didn’t work for long in Afghanistan and it wont work for long now.
    In the face of such overt aggression even Obama and Merkel may be forced to give up their “No weapons for Kyiv” attitude. Even if they don’t, more military assistance from other countries can be taken for granted- apart from Poland and the Baltics, think Sweden and possibly the UK. Increased sanctions would be inevitable which would wreck the economy- kicking the country out of SWIFT would almost certainly be among the extra measures. Down goes the value of the ruble, down go many of the country’s banks, up go unemployment and poverty levels.
    And the diplomatic consequences would be incalculable. There would be no way the dwarf could hide or deny active involvement any longer.

    • On the Balcony

      In Putin’s mind he is leading the world in a fight to defend true multiculturalism. i.e. the right of people’s and states to exist and be governed on principles and values other than those embraced and promulgated by the U.S. and West. Putin believes that the wolves of decadent democracy are at the doorstep and that Russia has no option other than to defend what he believes is Russia’s legitimate right to subjugate it’s neighbors’ interests to its own. Short of a real threat of Russia’s destruction he will push on in Ukraine. Presented with a real or perceived threat of Russia’s destruction he might simply “push the button.” The West is truly between a rock and a hard place.as long as Putin is in power.

      • Peter K

        Putin is already 60, and all the botox in the universe won’t make him any younger. How much longer has he got? If he can’t be stopped, then Ukraine and the rest of the world just need to outlast him.

        • On the Balcony

          How long would it take for this situation to get completely out of control? A week? A month? Putin has another decade or two to go. Unfortunately, unlike previous Russian leaders, Putin is said to be extremely health conscious so no one is holding their breath.

          • Nomid

            The trouble is, if Putin throws a fit, he can deploy all the Russian military and invade any country near his borders that he wants in a moments notice. I don’t think he will, at all. It would only accelerate his downfall, and i think he is getting REAL close to the point were his downfall is almost guaranteed in the near future. But we can not ignore the fact that he can, all by himself, make the situation spin out of control.

          • Czech Friend

            he will be dealt with soon, either by ruskies or someone else. I have no doubt about that.

          • Peter K

            Right, the danger is real. But there are things that the US and its allies, and even Ukraine, can do to grab some control of the situation and maintain it. Ukraine can build its army, fight corruption, reform its economy, and generally build its state and nation. The US can reinforce NATO, give Ukraine financial (and hopefully someday soon, military) assistance, and get its own worst-case-scenario responses ready.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          He will be 63 this year. There’s a joke in Russia that 2015 will be the year of 3 x 63: Putin’s 63rd birthday, oil price down to $63 per barrel and the ruble down to 63 to the US dollar.

          • Nowhere Girl

            It’s quite an optimistic scenario – while it’s true that Putin has largely managed to stop/slow down the ruble’s fall (probably by forcing oligarchs to throw some capital on the market, it’s being said), already last year it was well above 63 rubles per dollar. At some point the ruble was falling by the minute. This may repear itself – any “economic defence” RuSSia employs won’t last forever, especially when it’s spending huge money on the military and propaganda…

  • On the Balcony

    This “attack plan” is incomplete and, as presented, makes absolutely no sense. Russia’s goal is Ukraine’s industrial heartline and its coastline –ALL of the coastline. (A diagonal line from Kharkiv to Moldova.) Rather than waste troops preparing for a purely diversionary attack on Kiev the government should focus on plans to secure communications and quickly transfer cnc personnel, government functions to Odessa and Lviv, prep the Kyiv population on civil resistance techniques and assign a volunteer battalion to go underground and make Russia pay as much as possible for its folly.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      With the heavy fighting that such an invasion would result in, there is every chance that much of the invaded territory will be left in ruins, just like the Donbass. Furthermore, retreating Ukrainian troops would blow up anything they could- bridges, power plants, railway systems etc etc. Dwarfstan would have to pick up the tab for the reconstruction and it can’t even afford reconstruction of the current territories of the so-called LNR and DNR. And it can forget about any reconstruction help from the EU, US or Canada. The economic value of the territory would be far less than its current value; many people would have fled westwards, reducing the labour force to a similar state of that of LNR and DNR- mostly pensioners and poorly educated unskilled workers.
      The further westwards the dwarf goes, the more likely the local population will be uncooperative. Even in the Donbass no more than 38-39% of the population was ethnically Russian- do you think the 88% ethnic Ukrainians in Sumy oblast, for instance, will welcome the Kolorads with open arms? Hardly. And how do you fight guerrillas who will have massive support from the population? Only through terror, which will result in even more people going west. The dwarf can seize all he likes, but without sufficient people to run the factories, farms etc it will all be worthless.

      • Czech Friend

        yes, his regime is losing brain power by the day just like the evil old Soviet Union nobody capable and sane wants to be part of his world if given the chance.

      • Peter K

        I hope it doesn’t come to that. Steppe isn’t good ground for fighting a guerrilla war. And guerrilla wars tend to be a last resort anyway, with huge civilian casualties. The only thing we can say for sure is, the farther west Putin goes, the more Ukrainians will die. Better then to fight in Donbas than in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, or Poltava.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          The guerrilla war in the Baltics and Western Ukraine lasted for about 12 years without any support from the west whatsoever, though it gradually petered out from 1950 on. With support from Poland at the very least, and with Poland having a border with Western Ukraine, support will easily be passed on.
          Guerrilla war can be waged in cities and from forests- by no means all of Eastern Ukraine is steppe.
          And with the war between Moscow and Kyiv becoming an open declared war, there will be no restraint on Ukrainian troops to wage guerrilla war in Russia itself. The dwarf will require troops to protect potential targets in Russia, reducing the forces available for the front. His army simply is not large and strong enough to invade the Ukraine, protect potential targets in Russia and keep an eye on Peking and Kadyrov at the same time.

      • On the Balcony

        It will be worthless to us if Putin continues it –and Putin is currently ready to settle for a weak and failing Ukraine which, he believes, will eventually bow to Russia’s yoke.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          NO government in Kyiv will bow to the dwarf- if only because it would be political suicide. The Ukrainians don’t want the war, but they are fighting for their very survival as a sovereign nation and quite possibly even as a race, given the pronouncements by Dugin and other extremists such as Zhirinovsky. Giving up wasn’t an option for the British in 1940 and it isn’t one for the Ukrainians in 2015.
          There’s no chance of Kyiv bowing to the dwarf because anybody with half a brain knows that a deal with the dwarf is worthless. The Crimea, Minsk I and Minsk II proved that. There won’t be a Minsk III.

  • gmab

    PUtin always said, way back in the beginning of this war that, if the West forced Russia to go down, he’d take Ukraine down with him. He also intimated he wanted more Slavs in his empire as non-Slavs are the minority in the vast country. I truly hope that the above scenario never happens.

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      “Small” problem for the dwarf is that most Ukrainians don’t WANT to be part of his Slav empire. And whether the Belarusians do is doubtful……..

    • Oknemfrod

      >he wanted more Slavs in his empire as non-Slavs are the minority in the vast country<
      Hmmm… it does not make logical sense.
      Non-Slavs are actually a majority in his country, exacerbated by the fact that a majority of the Russians are actually not Slavs.

      • gmab

        I meant non-Slavs are the majority. Thanks for spotting my error. He needs more Slavs in the West of Russia almost like he knows he’ll lose the East Russia eventually. I agree, the only Russian Slavs are offspring of Slav-Russian marriage therefore part Slav.

        • Oknemfrod

          Got it… just a typo.

  • Miki Mato

    what about visit a psychiatrist?

  • http://kopaty.com/ Mat

    Unfounded speculation.

    • misusan

      i think so tooo. i also thought the winter olympics were ok.

      in sochi///

    • Peter K

      What is unfounded speculation? The Documents Myrotvorets uncovered from the Russian general staff, which the Ukrainian government first shared with the US and then published?

  • Czech Friend

    To me it just proves Obama’s incompetency and total failure of the whole free coalition to really STAND UP for Ukraine.

    When Putler being so much weaker while thinking he can still get away with large scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Our dear cowardly leaders, you deserve to be bitchslapped for putting as all in risk by appeasing the bully. Yes, it is that simple when dealing with this ruskie primitive KGB rat.

  • disqus_eXW9OZNPtl

    Map was made by Stratfor not RU.

    • Kruton

      Stratfor said that the Maidan protest couldn’t overthrow the Russian backed criminals,they were wrong!

  • Vlad Pufagtinenko

    and so it begins……Glory to Ukraine

  • rvborgh

    is there an English translation of these documents somewhere online?