Peace is over for Poland

Polish Cavalry - as at Vienna 1683, still ready to save Europe.

Polish Cavalry - as at Vienna 1683, still ready to save Europe. 

Military analysis

Article by: Thomas Theiner

Unlike Sweden, Poland has kept defense spending at 1.95% for the last decade, which is the bare minimum for a nation under threat. However, with a government debt of 49.9% of GDP and a budget deficit of 2.9%, Poland has little room to increase defense spending in the short term, especially as it is forced by the German-invented EU Convergence Program to keep its budget deficit permanently under 3%. Luckily, Poland’s economy keeps growing and growing: in 2015 it will grow by at least 3.2% allowing Poland to spend an extra €350 million on defense in 2016 without increasing its budget deficit. However, Poland should spend even more: raising its corporate income tax by 2% to 21% would provide Poland with an extra €900 million a year for defense, while still retaining the lowest corporate (and income) tax rate among the six big nations of the European Union.

Poland is the European state most at risk to be devastated by Russia, and yet Poland is not yet fully prepared to defend itself against such a fate. Even though no other European nation bar Greece fields an armored and mechanized force as powerful as Poland and no other nation bar Turkey is buying as much modern weapons as Poland, there are still gaps in Poland’s military capabilities that need to the closed as soon as possible.

Most urgently, Poland’s army needs a modern long-range air-defense system with anti-ballistic missile capability. Admirably its army is already running the WISLA program to buy either the American MIM-104 Patriot or the Italian/French SAMP/T system. The SAMP/T is the more capable system, but buying MIM-104 Patriot Systems will score Poland points with American politicians. Currently American MIM-104 Patriots are based in Poland and therefore I assume Poland will buy the American system, also because France comes out as less reliable, see the (thankfully postponed) questionable decision to deliver two amphibious assault ships of the Mistral-class to Russia, whose only purpose, now after the occupation of Crimea, is to ease a Russian occupation of Gotland.

Besides the WISLA program, Poland’s army also runs the NAREW program to buy a mobile medium range anti-air missile system to defend its armored brigades and the HOMAR program to build an indigenous surface-to-surface rocket artillery system based on the American HIMARS multiple rocket launcher and the American MGM-140 ATACMS missile. As soon as the HOMAR enters service, Poland will be able to strike Russian anti-air missile systems, command centers, ballistic missile systems and other high-value targets 300km inside enemy territory. Finland intended to buy the MGM-140 ATACMS for its M270 MLRS systems, but canceled the deal under Russian pressure in March 2014. The massive pressure and plethora of threats Russia unleashed on Finland proves that Russian generals fear nothing more than precision guided missiles that can destroy Russian S-300 anti-air missile systems and thus open the way for Western air power to annihilate Russian ground forces.

But Poland’s army is still Europe’s shining light when it comes to preparing for war: it already bought nearly 2,700 Israeli-made Spike anti-tank guided missiles, is about to introduce the modern MSBS Radon assault rifle, has ordered 997 KTO Rosomak wheeled infantry fighting vehicles, has ordered the WLR 100 Liwiec artillery radar to spot Russian artillery positions, is starting production of the AHS Krab self-propelled howitzer for its armored brigades along the Kaliningrad border and is adding reserve personnel to augment its forces.

The CV90, because Poland's mechanized infantry deserves a modern IFV.

The CV90, because Poland’s mechanized infantry deserves a modern IFV.

But some gaps in the Army’s inventory remain: first, there are way too few modern tanks, and the plan to introduce the light Polish-British PL-01 tank by 2018 is way too late. Based on the chassis of the Swedish CV-90, the PL-01 can enter production sooner and as Poland’s mechanized brigades desperately need a modern tracked infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) to replace the obsolete Soviet-made BMP-1, Poland should either license the Swedish CV-90 for production in Poland or develop an IFV variant of the PL-01. To protect its tanks and IFVs from anti-tank guided missiles, Poland should license Israel’s Trophy active protection system, which automatically recognizes and destroys incoming missiles and rocket-propelled grenades. Equipped with the Trophy system and a 120mm cannon, the PL-01 will easily defeat Russian tanks. At the same time, the production of the AHS Krab must be sped up and expanded from 72 howitzers to 240 howitzers to equip all of Poland’s mechanized and armored brigades. Last year Poland’s army started the KRUK program to acquire 30 modern attack helicopters within the next two years. Most likely Poland will buy the Italian A129 Mangusta designed by AgustaWestland as it could be built at Agusta’s PZL-Świdnik plant in Poland. But 30 attack helicopters are not enough. Poland should buy at least 48.

Poland’s navy is also buying equipment and upgrading its capabilities. Most recently it acquired Norway’s Naval Strike Missile for its Coastal Missile Squadron. Within this year Poland will launch a tender to buy three submarines capable to launch cruise missiles and has request American permission to acquire Tomahawk cruise missiles. However, the current plan by Poland’s military to buy a mere six anti-submarine warfare helicopters is way below what is actually needed. With Russian submarines likely to swarm the Baltic Sea in a Baltic war Poland will need at least 12 anti-submarine helicopters.

In a future war with Russia Poland’s navy will have three main tasks: defend the Polish coast from amphibious Russia landings, destroy Russian submarines and ships blockading Poland’s coast and destroy the German-Russian North Stream gas pipeline. Poland’s navy is adequately prepared for all three tasks, although replacing its two aging American-built Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigates with two modern air-defense frigates would greatly improve Poland’s ability to deny Russia air superiority in the Baltic Sea. Spain (Álvaro de Bazán-class), Germany (Sachsen-class), the Netherlands (De Zeven Provinciën-class) and Denmark (Iver Huitfeldt-class) currently build frigates armed with the American RIM-66M-5, RIM-161D, RIM-162 ESSM and RIM-174 Standard ERAM surface-to-air missiles, which give these frigates anti-air, anti-cruise missile and anti-ballistic missile capabilities with a radius of 240km. Additionally, all of these frigates are capable of firing Tomahawk cruise missiles against land targets 1,700 km away.

Alternatively, Italy and France build the Horizon-class frigates and FREMM frigates and the UK builds the Type 45 destroyer, which employ the same missiles as the SAMP/T system to shoot down enemy planes and cruise missiles in a radius of 120km. However, anti-ballistic missile and cruise missile land attack capabilities for these three classes are still in development. Overall, buying two modern air-defense frigates is an expensive item Poland will have to buy one day, as unlike Sweden with Gotland, Poland does not have an island 100km from its coast, which can act as an unsinkable platform for long-range anti-air missiles.

Polish F-16C-52+, more needed.

Polish F-16C-52+, more needed.

Poland’s air force is currently the service in need of the most investment. The Sukhoi Su-22 ground attack aircraft it fields is flying garbage, that has been retired nearly everywhere. Likewise Poland’s MiG-29 will need to be replaced with a more capable fighter in the coming years. As Poland already fields 48 American-made F-16C/D Block 52+ fighters, it would be wise to replace the Su-22 as soon as possible with 48 of the much more capable F-16E/F Block 60 variant. Not only does the Block 60 variant have a more powerful engine, more fuel capacity, better avionics and more hardpoints to carry weapons than older F-16 variants, it also has an internal AN/ASQ-32 IFTS ground targeting system and an AN/APG-80 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, which can search, track and fire at multiple air and ground targets simultaneously. Buying more F-16 will cut down maintenance and training costs for Poland’s air force.

Alternatively, Poland could cooperate with Sweden to produce at least 72 Saab JAS 39E/F Gripen fighter at its PZL Mielec plant, thus giving the Polish aerospace industry a quantum leap in technology and quality. However, the JAS 39E/F will only enter production by 2017 and it will be unable to carry the HARM Targeting System pod and the AGM-88E AARGM anti-radiation missile, which Poland’s air force needs to strike Russian S-300 systems in Kaliningrad from a safe distance. A big plus for the Gripen is that it fires the most advanced air-launched ground attack missile in the world, the British Brimstone, which would allow two Gripens to wipe out an entire Russian tank battalion in minutes. As Poland will need to upgrade and expand its air force as soon as possible, the Gripen can only be an alternative if Sweden is willing to lease 36 of its 86 JAS 39C  fighters to Poland until the JAS 39E enters service.

The other two alternatives on the market are the F-35 and the Eurofighter Typhoon. However, the F-35 is too expensive for Poland and the Eurofighter, which is by far the best fighter produced in Europe, is unlikely to be licensed for production in Poland. Carrying the CAPTOR-E AESA radar and able to deploy all missiles and bombs already in the Polish arsenal, as well as the AGM-88E AARGM and the Brimstone, the Eurofighter clearly would be the most capable fighter for Poland.

Poland already has acquired an immense amount of missiles and bombs for its F-16 fighters including AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM radar-guided air-to-air missiles, the AGM-65G Maverick air-to-ground missiles  and 40x AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles, which will be delivered in 2016. Surprisingly, Poland has neither an anti-radiation missile nor an anti-ship missile in its arsenal, even though its F-16 can deploy American AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Even more surprising is that Poland does not have advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in its inventory. Here too Poland will have to invest to provide its frontline commanders with a real-time reconnaissance option that i.e. Israel’s Hermes 450 or Hermes 900 can provide.

If funds can be found in the next years, Poland should also acquire airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. If Sweden agrees to share production with Poland, then the Saab 340 AEW&C would provide the Polish air force with a proven solution to command and control the aerial battlespace. Alternatively, Poland could acquire the Spanish-Israeli CASA C-295 AEW, which would fit well with Poland’s existing fleet of 16 CASA C-295 tactical transport planes. Just as Sweden, Poland will have to replace its antique C-130E Hercules planes in the coming years: either with C-130J Super Hercules or Airbus A400M Atlas planes. The latter costs 50% more and is plagued by endless production problems, while over 300 C-130J are already in service and therefore a safer choice for Poland; unless Airbus is willing to outsource production partially to Polish manufacturers.

Before concluding the Polish air force section I want to commend it for two excellent decisions: first for buying the best trainer aircraft on the market, namely the Italian Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Master, and second for having all its air bases, except for the 22nd Air Base in Malbork, outside the range of Russia’s S-300 systems in Kaliningrad. Clearly someone was aware of the implications of a possible war with Russia when deciding on the basing of Polish air force wings.

Polish Army main bases.

Polish Army main bases. (click to enlarge)

The same cannot be said about the Polish Army. During the Cold War 37% of Italy’s Army stood within 100km of the Yugoslav-Italian border and another 40% right behind to cover the flanks and act as reserve. Just 23% of Italy’s Army was based to the South of Bologna. Today 43% of the Polish Army is based along its border with Germany, with a further 25% based in the South and Center of the country leaving just 24% of its forces to garrison the border with Kaliningrad. This is too little, especially as the forces facing Kaliningrad have a 250km long unprotected flank to their right. Irresponsibly, Poland has just a single reconnaissance regiment deployed to cover its 250km long border with the Russia-dependent Belarus. That is a mere two soldiers per km.

When Putin said his army could be in Warsaw within two days he meant this open flank: during a joint Russo-Belarusian military exercise two Russian motor rifle brigades and could cross the Polish border and have nothing in their way until they reach Warsaw. In the worst-case scenario, they will be joined by the 6th and 11th Belarusian mechanized brigades. The distance between the border and Warsaw is just 180km, which means the Russians can be there in four hours. Only the 1st “Warszawska” armored brigade is based in Warsaw and can defend the city; that is, if the brigade is even in Warsaw, as currently it is assigned as reserve for the Kaliningrad front and might not even be in the Polish capital when Russian forces occupy it.

Poland assumes it will have ample time to move its brigades from the West of the country to the East when needed, but I assure you: there won’t be time! And by the time Poland will finally begin to move its units, Russian Special Forces will have blown up all rail bridges in Western Poland. With the railways cut, Poland will have to transport its heavy equipment by truck to the East. However Poland, like all other European nations, has been very stingy in buying heavy lift vehicles and so it can move at maximum one battalion at a time. Bringing a tank battalion to the East is an 800km round trip under Russian fire, which means most of Poland’s army will not reach the front before Poland will have surrendered.

Therefore, Poland should aim to move its two strongest brigades, namely the 10th and 34th armored cavalry brigades to the East, where they and the 1st “Warszawska” armored brigade should form a new division, which will act as a bulwark against a Russian attack coming from Belarus. Additionally, Poland should raise two new brigades. Currently Poland fields 312 active soldiers per 100,000 citizens, which is too low: the United States fields 425 active troops per 100,000 citizens, Norway 476, Israel 2,142. Poland would have to raise its armed forces by 35,000 troops if it wants to level with Finland (402 troops per 100,000 citizens) or raise its forces by 41,000 troops to reach the level of Estonia (418 troops). That is too much though; adding another brigade equipped with KTO Rosomak wheeled infantry fighting vehicles and a mechanized brigade with tanks and tracked infantry fighting vehicles would be enough to defend Poland and aid the Baltic States.

To sum up the situation of Poland: unlike Sweden, which has the money and technology, but lacks the martial will, Poland lacks the money and technology, but its people have so much spirit to live free and so much will to resist Russia that today Poland is the strongest, most sincere and most admirable nation on our continent. God bless Poland and the Poles!

This article is part of the article series Peace is Over, which also includes the following in-depth analysis of the current military capabilities and the required changes to defend Sweden and the Baltic States:

  1. Sweden
  2. The Baltic States
Since you’re here – we have a favor to ask. Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine is ongoing, but major news agencies have gone away. But we’re here to stay, and will keep on providing quality, independent, open-access information on Ukrainian reforms, Russia’s hybrid war, human rights violations, political prisoners, Ukrainian history, and more. We are a non-profit, don’t have any political sponsors, and never will. If you like what you see, please help keep us online with a donation!

Tags: , , , , ,

  • Andrei Andronic

    Any article about Romania?

  • Cieckot Il

    We have 20% of corporate income tax, not 2% as mentioned in 1st paragraph. Regards from Poland

    • noclador

      As per website of the Polish government it is 19% and I suggest to raise it to 21%.

      Here is the website:

      • Murf

        Excellent article. I second the request for one on Romania and Bulgaria.

  • Gryzelda Wrr

    “Poland lacks the money and technology, but its people have so much spirit to live free and so much will to resist Russia that today Poland is the strongest, most sincere and most admirable nation on our continent. ”

    Don’t say that! One gets embarrased :)

    BTW: Buying weapons is like buying clothes. No matter how much you spend on them, when you open the wardrobe, you never find what you need.:)

    • Murf

      That is where the Marine Corp saying; Adapt, Improvise, Overcome takes center stage. It’s better to have the wrong size screw driver than to have to use your finger nail.
      Fortunately Poland has a well stocked tool box to begin with.

      • Gryzelda Wrr

        I hope we really have the tool box. We’ve always had lots of spirit and little money. A popular Polish saying: we are “barefoot but with spurs”:)

        • Murf

          Don’t let familiarity breed contempt. I was 21 years in the US army and very body I talked to had nothing but good things to say about the Polish Army. These guy don’t hand out compliments lightly nor do I.

          They have a lot of good training(the Polish pilots get as mcch stick time as the Brits.) The have gotten a lot of valuable real combat experience. In Iraq the Poles provided brigade and the HQ for the Multinational Division. They were responsible for running a unit made up of about 40 different countries. That is like herding cats with a bull horn. However it does give hard admin training for senior officers. In A stan Poland took on responsibility for an entire province. Which is a whole new level of complexity. This makes the polish Army one of the most experienced in NATO at all levels.

          Training and experience can over come many deficiencies in weaponry. Just look at the US vs the Viet cong.

          And on the note.

          A lot of Polish equipment is out dated Warsaw Pact. They have however kept it updated and well maintained.

          The army are replacing the Soviet era tanks with 300 modern Leopard 2s. They buying CV-90 series IFVs to replace BMP1s and 30 attack helios.
          The Air Force has gotten 100+ modern F-16s. They buying a stockpile of US made JDAM glide bombs.
          The Navy is building three new subs with tomahawk cruise missiles.

          Most impressively they have started an air defense program called “the Shield of Poland” A multi layer system which will include an anti ballistic system.

          All to together the Polish Military has been allocated 40 billion for upgrades. One of the largest weapons buying programs in the world.

          Most of the gaps the author is talking about are not huge, minor but important tweaks.

          The only glaring deficiency is the lack of an organized reserve. Rapid expansion and replacing losses will be an important deterrent.
          All in all I would rate the Polish army as one of the best in Europe. Certainly as good as the Army that stopped the Soviets in 1922 and saved Europe from Communism.

  • Roger Mikael Klang

    “Poland will have to buy one day, as unlike Sweden with Gotland, Poland does not have an island 100km from its coast”
    Gotland is actually located 300 km from Kaliningrad. But great article though! Where is this Thomas Theiner from?

  • vsevolod4

    A sobering article; Poland has a lot to worry about from Russia.
    So much for that “reset” with the West … Putin took advantage of our “greater flexibility” …
    And please, when talking about Polish military spending, no jokes about screen doors on submarines.

    • Murf

      And they were greeted with the warm hospitality you would expect from friends and allies.
      But you are right about the symbolism. Germany and Poland are allies now. They have put side their age old differences and work together.
      To bad Putin and his lackeys can not think on the same level.

      • Murf

        Sure, we would be glade to have them. These are the people who become the strength of this country.
        Not sure what your problem with them is.

  • Calibra

    maybe you should do some research, 320 million will buy you half a modern frigate, or 20 modern F16’s

    What you propose will cost more than 5 billion euro in buying, training and maintaining, poland cannot afford that.

    • Murf

      They have already allocated 40 billion for their modernization program for the next five years.Poland is growing like crazy and they take their defense serious.

  • Mazepa

    Who is this guy? His analyses are rather brilliant.

  • Murf

    As a former US Army soldier I have to say how proud I am to have an ally like the Poles.
    Since joining NATO Poland has been a strong supporter of peace keeping operations and the US occupation in Iraq. They have always been enthusiastic and will to cooperate with us.
    I would also like to thank the people of Eastern Europe for their hospitality and friendship shone to our soldiers in the recent Dragoon Ride operation.

    • Murf

      And I hope you are at the scene of a nuclear event. I would pay real money for pics of you wasting away form radiation poisoning.
      Wouldn’t that ironic you got a dose of Polonium?

      • Murf

        You see Michael we have a clear working relationship.
        I think you a whinny little bitch who talks trash like a five year old girl.

        • Murf

          Ok Mikey. Let me put this in perspective.
          In 21 years of military service I had:
          Torn ligaments in both ankles.
          Chigger bits so dense they where diagnosed as Poison Ivy,
          I spent 10 cold rainy days in up to my knees in mud (I got my own fungus from that thank you very much.)
          Stayed up so long I was hallucinating.
          Broke my left elbow, and lost 50% of my hearing in my Right ear.
          Oh and a Drill Sargent promised me he was going to extract one of my orbits and preform somewhat physically impossible as well natural acts in the exposes cavity.(Pull my eye ball and Skull fuk me) he said with such conviction I question the unlikely hood of its completion. ( I was scared shitless.) good time, good times.
          I have been an Xray Tech since 1990 and have:
          Been up to my elbows in blood and eyes balls from trauma,
          Been vomited on, bleed on. crapped on, peed on and a few other body fluids you have probable never heard of.
          I have seen an endless parade of human misery the highlights include:
          Doing CPR on 6 cardiac arrest patients( one of whom was a 6 week baby for 3 hours. That was a bad night.)
          Patients with 70% of their burned. (You never forget that smell!)
          Children who have had appendages cut off, suffered physical abuse and sexual assault. Born premature and were the size of your palm. Born addicted to Meth, Coke, Heroin. and Hydrocephalus(and was all on one kid.)
          I have seen more suicides than I can count including a guy who cut himself about twenty times with a razor clear to the bone.(They say all bleeding eventually stops. They are right. Until you give them a blood transfusion. Then it starts again. Who knew huh?)
          End stage cancer patients by the dozen per week.(Including the only man I ever admired. I did his fist scan that found it and his last scan.)
          So why don’t you put your juvenile “toe fungus” Bull Shit into that context and talk to me about insults.
          Christ you are such a little girl.
          You need to stick to the fantasy role playing game boards where they MIGHT think you are cool.
          Around here, you are just a bad joke that takes it’s self way to seriously.

          • Murf

            4.5 years of your life you will never get back. Sad really.
            Your posts are not intelligent, insightful, enlightening, They bring nothing to the discussion.
            I would say they are retarded but that would give them far to much credit.
            You come across as a drooling village idiot. Nothing more.
            I enjoy a zestful debate with people I differ with, some times strongly.
            From Jihadists who justify some of the most heinous crimes of modern times to to good natured political issues.
            You don’t fit into any of these.
            As a side note; I don’t expect an ounce of sympathy for my life’s decisions. I wanted you to see your so called barbs are no more significant than a cheeky monkey’s chattering.
            As I have said before you should go some where were your brand of “discussion” might get some form of interest.
            Because it is not here.

          • Murf

            Stingers are used against air craft only.

  • john.realist

    this article is rubbish. here’s a real summary of Poland’s situation:

    1) no money to increase the defence budget
    2) lots of debt, and the economy is NOT booming despite government’s propaganda
    3) the government is not interested in building the military infrastructure, nor it is doing anything to prepare for the worst
    4) we’re in the worst possible geographical position, and we are currently underarmed, understaffed and helpless
    5) nobody is going to fight for Poland, not to mention for Ukraine. if Russia were to attack Poland, we would just run away and give up – Poles do not want to die for their country, not to mention other nations
    6) NATO? EU? seriously? remember what happened in 1939? we’re as alone as we’ve always been.

    the conclusion: if Putin wants to take a slice of Poland, he definitely can. the question is if he will. and nobody is going to die for Ukraine or peace in Europe. everybody is going to run away to the UK :)

    • Murf

      Yet other member of the St Pete’s brat pack. Commonly called a Russian Troll.
      You can always tell because they up vote their own posting.
      Scurry back to St Pete’s little troll, no were believes your swill.

      • Murf

        Big talk from a guy who talk’s so gleefully about NUCing the world.

        • Murf

          Lots! You volunteering?
          Just kidding.
          I never heard a shot fired in anger. I was two weeks from being shipped to the sand box in 91.

    • Olaf

      Dear john or rather Ivan, This article is maybe a little bit naive but definitely is not rubbish. Hardly to believe you have ever been in Poland. You have no idea about real situation of Poland.
      1. currently huge amount of public money are wasted for ineffective hypertrophic administrations, useless projects like stadiums, airports, festivals, or supporting excessive employment in economically inefficient enterprises (eg. coal mines, state railways) and other election gimmicks. That money should be spent on army and national defense industry.
      2. No one said that Polish economy is booming. The author only mentioned the stable growth of 3 percent. That corresponds completely to the truth.
      3. I agree that the government is doing far too little to support national defense.
      4. Russia has a much worse strategic position than Poland. The Russian army must simultaneously maintains troops in the arctic, the Far East, in Europe. To protect russian interests in the Caucasus and in Central Asia. Must fight with the Ukrainians. Defends deserted but rich Siberia against China. Insure against such countries as Japan, USA, Iran. Russia have to additionaly invest in nuclear and space program. And the Russian economy is ONLY three times larger than Polish.
      5. You dont know Poland, nor Poles nor polish history. We are organically not able to surrender. The last 300 years of our history is the history of endless struggles against stronger powers, invasions, repeated defeats, bloody repression, but also continuous uprisings, resistance movement, restorations of country and society. Such a defect of character. Maybe we are too proud maybe too stupid but we just do not know how to lose.
      6. In 1939, NATO or the EU does not exist. In 1939, Poland had to face concentric attack of 2 the biggest, world military powers (CCCP and Third Reich). Our ally GB had no land forces. France had just started the mobilisation. Joint powers of our enemies were many times stronger than strength of our allies. There were no realistic possibilities to help us in 1939.
      Today the situation is completely different. Putin does not have any allies who could attack Poland from behind. Our allies are not only the GB and France but as well US, Germany and many other countries. We are part of an effective and proven military block. NATO’s military power is dosen times higher than the Russian power.
      the conclusion: Putin are not strong enough to conquer even the Ukraine. Putin’s invasion of Poland would mean the final defeat and the collapse of the Russian Federation.

      • canuke

        Bravo, brave Pole!

      • john.realist

        im polish, my friend.

        • Gryzelda Wrr

          Well, this is possible though not very probable. There have always been a number of Poles ready to take part in a Targowica confederation. But they are minority and they end up very badly:)
          Just for reminder:

          Leading members of Targowica confederation:

          “Stanisław Szczęsny Potocki: Marshal (head) of the Confederation.[4] Sentenced to death, but never apprehended (…)
          Other magnate members:
          Franciszek Ksawery Branicki:[4] Sentenced to death during the Kościuszko Uprising but never apprehended. Emigrated to Russia, died at Biała Cerkiew, 1819.
          Szymon Marcin Kossakowski: Hanged April 25, 1794, in Wilno during the Kościuszko Uprising.
          Józef Kazimierz Kossakowski: Bishop. Hanged May 9, 1794, in Warsaw during the Kościuszko Uprising.[5]
          Ignacy Jakub Massalski: Bishop. Hanged June 28, 1794, in Warsaw during the Kościuszko Uprising.[6]”

          The conclusion: Anybody who gives a slice of Poland to anybody, should think it over. :)

      • Murf

        That’s the kind of fighting spirit American’s love! (We even have a grudging respect for Vietnam, SOBs fought hard)
        That is why the US won’t sell out Poland. That is why the US military respects the Poles and won’t stand by and watch a friend get swallowed up by that Piece of Shite Putin.

        Best regards from the US.

        • Murf

          Wrong war chief.
          Gotta get your time line straight if you want your comments to have any resonance.
          That was about as stupid as me saying; “hope you got gassed in WWI.”
          Try to work on that ok!

          • Murf

            With a bit of Lock you will get a flesh eating virus.

          • Murf

            I rarely stay in the pay by the hour “No tell motels” that are your style so think I am ok.
            Are you sure it is not an STD?

          • Randall Cook

            A pox on you MishaInLeningrad1234..I hope that you die from a mrsa infection, that starts in your feet and works its way up to your empty skull.
            PS see You at your warcrimes trial as ruSSland gets what it deserves…a thorough beat-down.

          • Randall Cook

            He did.LOL! & that was lovely sentiments you expressed there, Misha/Julius Streicher…well done Gespodin Katsap.

        • Andrew Chmilewsky

          I wouldn’t quite trust Obama there Murf.
          He sold out the Budapest Memorandum.
          What’s he REALLY care about Poland.
          Not his thing.

          Obama is far more concerned with desert rat holes of absolutely no particular importance to U.S. interests, save for domestic lobby groups.

          • Murf

            Obama is a legal eagle. If the law said it was legal to sacrifice babies to the elder gods he would do it.
            With Article 5 under his belt Obama will do…something.
            He will probably will want to do something particularly ineffective. But as I said, many people in the Pentagon have strong ties with the Polish military. Don’t under estimate that. The US military had strong ties with the Egyptian military and kept them from crushing the Mubarak Protests. That is why Egypt is not a blood bath. He also came to the Kurds aid long before the the Baghdad government. Th Kurds have many supporters in the government like Joe Biden.
            Next to England, Poland has been our biggest supporter for the the last 20 years.
            That may not mean shit to his Obamaness but it does to a lot of other influential people.
            And Poland is fixing to spend 40 billion on weapons.
            As they say; money talks.

        • obou

          Coming from neighboring Czech Republic I must say I respect the Poles and the respect is now bordering on admiration as my own country has failed to even show support on the soft power push on Russia (that is: the leaders have failed to show support, the people by and large are absolutely against Russian meddling). Olaf, to your conclusion and to slightly argue against Thomas’s analysis: Over the past 25yrs, irrespective of troubles with the economy, corruption and bureaucracy, Europe has seen freedom and prosperity unmatched in history. Us, Czechs, have found that of all the nations in the world, the Germans are good friends. Me being a Czech of Jewish origin (most of my family perished in the Holocaust) have a great relationship to today’s Germany and manage a company which is partially German owned. I travel to Warsaw regularly. I do business with Slovaks, Swedes, the French and the English. I have many great friends throughout the EU and I lived in the UK, Sweden and Denmark. The Union has enabled us to overcome our historical traumas. It is for this reason, I am an optimist: if the worst comes to the worst, I am willing to stand in line and defend Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn or Warsaw as if it was Prague. And I know I am not alone. We are One. That being said, I am ashamed that European governments have so heavily relied on US protection. Its like we had a neighbor that was asked to stand on guard at our fence day in, day night for decades without us even bothering to have a look outside of the window and see if there isn’t something looming over the gate. And every so often we say the neighbor is a bit aggressive when he lashes out at a wolf nearby and hate it when he tells us in a polite way “maybe, you should at least have a peak out of that windows sometimes.” I value the US and believe the transatlantic alliance is absolutely key to our future but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be able to protect our own borders, for freakin’out loud! It is for this reason, I believe Thomas’s analysis helps: even if it may be slightly over-exagirating the risks, it should help in the people of the EU forcing their politicians to make defense a priority. Just like Poland.

          • Murf

            Thank you for your kind words and locality to your union’s bright future. And the hospitality you showed our soldiers recently.
            Best regards from the U.S.

          • Gryzelda Wrr

            Obou, this was beautiful. As a Pole I want to say: thank you.

          • Sergey Tokarev

            ‘I wouldn’t overrate our civilization’ – neither would I.

          • Gryzelda Wrr

            Sergey, there is a joke in Poland. Two old men sitting and remembering old times.

            -Władek, if the 39 was to repeat… If we were attacked by Germans and Russians at the same time… Who would you beat first?
            -The Germans, of course!
            -Duty before pleasure.

            Thanks to Russian people of your kind I’ve finally understood the joke.

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Test passed. Witty. Now wait for many decades, when Poland will be paying for madness of your ilk. You will think about me many, many times.

          • Gryzelda Wrr

            You wish:)

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Which ‘wish’, beach? You will pay absolutely certainly. You are sick beach. You have no idea what you are doing.

          • Sergey Tokarev

            You think Russia will fall on her knees, or neoloons will win nuclear war and reward you for you lousiness? You are sick.

          • Gryzelda Wrr

            Calm down. Take your pill. Breathe deep. It’s ok. I am not offended:) I don’t want Russia to kneel. I want Russia to be a great, friendly, healthy country. We do not hate you. You have been manipulated.

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Fokk you, brainless beach. I am absolutely calm. Nobody needs you fokking garbage of a country, which you know very well. You will pay, beach, because entire Poland will pay, unfortunately including sane minority.

          • Andrew Chmilewsky

            Sergey Tokarev
            — A typical, VULGAR, WOMAN ABUSING, Russo-mongolian, cheap, lying, COWARDLY troll ROTE:

            “Fokk you, brainless beach. I am absolutely calm. Nobody needs you
            fokking garbage of a country, which you know very well. You will pay,
            beach, because entire Poland will pay, unfortunately including sane

            Talk like that to your cheap, Russo-mongolian ho’ mother and not to decent women like that! LOW CLASS Ruskie scum! Coward you are for YOUR RUSKIE MOUTH!

            YOU RAN AWAY LIKE A RUSKIE COWARD when it came to a WAGER! — Tried to TALK around it! RUSSKIE COWARD with a BIG MOUTH!

            LIKE TO BEAT WOMEN UP, eh Ruskie COWARD? Russian SCUM!!!

  • evanlarkspur

    I’m very sorry that the Poles somehow have the idea that we Americans don’t respect them. As a nation that has rejected corrupt and brutal communist rule, embraced democratic principles and the rule of law at great personal cost, and become the sixth largest economy in the EU, nothing could be further from the truth. Poland is a shining example of why everyone wants to leave Russia behind for good.

    • Gryzelda Wrr

      That can be easily changed. Cancel the visa regime:) That’s actually the only complain we might have. Our boys are good enough to go to Iraq, but not good enough to go to the US :)

      • Sergey Tokarev

        Relax, Your Majesty. They can pat you on your butts when you die for Banksters. It is more important that visa regime.

        • Gryzelda Wrr

          Sergey, we have known each other for so long. Don’t pretend that you are anything else but a Russian nationalist.

          • Sergey Tokarev


          • Gryzelda Wrr

            So you don’t care what or who I will die for. You just couldn’t miss the opportunity to make a biting remark about Polish-American relations:) Sometimes I think that you Russians are simply jealous:)

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Thinking is not your forte, Your Majesty.

          • Melp

            what is your forte?^^

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Thinking – certainly my strength. There are some others. I mean what I say, because I am a Russian man. Why are you asking? :)

          • Melp

            because i have another impression^^

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Thinking isn’t your strength either. Don’t worry. Maybe you are pretty. :)

          • Melp

            sorry, i prefer woman.^^

          • Sergey Tokarev

            I thought you were a woman. Sorry (, women), I judged based on your stupidity. Regards.

          • Melp

            is it fun to shoot yourself in the knee?^^
            heading for another one, you’re not a challenge^^

          • Sergey Tokarev

            Sorry for being too frank with you. Let me lie once: you are a smart guy. I am impressed. :)
            Do you have any idea what this garbage of the article is about? Why doesn’t he tackle something more practical, such as invasion of aliens from outside Milky Way?

          • Melp

            there will be no 2nd round:)

      • evanlarkspur

        I wasn’t aware that Poland doesn’t enjoy the same 90 visa-waiver program that the rest of the EU does. Hardly seems fair, frankly! I’d fix it if I could.

        • Gryzelda Wrr

          No. A bit humiliating.

          That’s the only point of our relations that is REALLY important and urgent to solve. I don’t know if you heard that “famous” statement of our former FM Radek Sikorski. It was recorded and leaked in a mysterious way that is currently under investigation. Sikorski said that we were “doing a blow job” to the US and we did not deserve any gratitude. It was a huge scandal. It seemed that our government would collapse because of the leaks and Sikorski finally lost his position and his chances to become the Foreign Minister of the EU. Which has probably caused a great joy to Mr Lavrov. I am sure Sikorski meant exactly that. It has a symbolic meaning for the Poles. Merkel saved the situation supporting Donald Tusk, the PM for EU council president. This has really saved the government’s face.

          International policy is a funny thing. The visa regime between the US and Poland has actually lost its importance for the people here since we joined the EU, but it still is a matter of honour:) And from the US point of view it should be a priority to grant it if not for the sake of Poland then just to shut up the Russians, who never miss their opportunity to remind us of it.

          Who knows, maybe somebody who has a say in this matter is reading us? :)

          • evanlarkspur

            I do remember the Sikorsky leak, of course- it was what I was referring to. I wouldn’t be too concerned by the Russians rubbing your noses in not yet having a visa waiver with the U.S. The Russians don’t have anything even remotely like this yet, and are unlikely to, at this point, of course. But more, they are just jealous and resentful that you’ve managed to shake them off your shoes like so much dust, and become the sixth largest economy in the EU! And your standard of living far exceeds that of Russia ( not to mention that your police aren’t robbing citizens in broad daylight like they do in Moscow). We admire what you’ve done! The Russians are just pathetic whiners for whom everyone must be either a vassal or an enemy because they are so (rightfully) insecure.

  • Marcin Spadi Zielinski

    Russian trolls can bark and bark yourself if they want to, in the end pay them for it directly from the Kremlin.

    The fact that one is easy biggest threat to Russia is not the US, EU, NATO and the UFO, the biggest threat is ourselves Russians, Russia and their government.

    Unknown to any other nation that so much lying to yourself, do not know the other people, who had suffered so much over the centuries, which shed so much blood, the blood of their own hands.

    Even the Nazis during WWII were not able to kill as many Russians as the Soviet government, by the hands of the NKWD.

    And it would be nice as would a little louder started to remind them, that winning the war against the Nazis is difficult for a country, which as the Nazis ally started this war, Nazi and Communist is the same in this case. And in 1939, they were allies, causing the second world war.

  • polishguy

    The Author said many nice things about my country, for which I thank Him. However, the situation of our armed forces is far from shining light even in peaceful Europe. As for the procurement of weaponry there is a bias toward very costly and far fetched projects at the expense of things that are most basic. To give but few examples, the mentioned Spike ATGMs are the only modern anti armor weapon at the level of company, and they are far to few, and expensive to engage anything but MBTs. We do not have modern grenade launcher either of reloadable or disposable type. There is no issued modern multipurpose ammunition for RPG-7 which are currently the backbone of anti armor weapon in our infantry. The disposable RPG-76 Mosquito are hopelessly obsolete and are to be decommissioned anyway. The small arms department is in shambles – the MSBS was not even officially approved by Ministry of Defense is not in mass production yet, soldiers usually have old 7,62x 39 AKMs, best units are rearmed with 5,56×45 Beryl AK derivatives. The same goes with squad machine gun – predominantly tried and true PK and PKM for russian 7,62x54r, few PK-2000 for 7,62×51 NATO. This creates problems with ammunition logistics, as we are using predominantly small arms in Warsaw Pact calibres, not compatible with NATO and in the case of assault rifles not even used by Russians anymore, since they switched to 5,45×39. Our mechanized infantry uses completely obsolete BMP-1 as the only IFV. There is no successor to these nor any viable and approved plans to modernize them. The KTO Rosomak is not intended to fight along or against tanks, its a wheeled vehicle and would have trouble to keep up with the armour in rugged terrain. The anti aircraft weapons mostly have their roots in 1970s, newer systems are either in stage of development or far to few. Even so, our MoD decided there will be cutbacks in procurement of locally made MANPADs. The list of most basic needs goes on and on. Expensive attack helicopters and few dozens of cruise missilles with conventional payload of about 450 kilograms are just waste of money in our current situation.
    The most grave problem is the lack of reserves for professionalized army. The compulsory military service was cancelled years ago as a means to win over the young voters. Now the army is theoretically about 100 thousand strong, includes 23 thousands of officers, 41 thousands of NCOs and 33 thousands of privates. There are also a National Reserve Forces – purely bureaucratic creation treated for saving on necessary manpower and as a job source for cadre and waiting room for those who want to enlist. It is understaffed, due to lack of volunteers, does not have proper equipment, and its training varies in quality. The same civilian and military advisors to the MoD and President of Republic who were endorsing this abortion now try to coin new idea of uniting various paramilitary organizations, students of high school military and law enforcement classes and airsoft groups into MoD directed “reserve army”, to do necessary assessment they will undoubtedly establish various committees staffed by retired and active generals and colonels that will proceed, as usual, for next ten years or until the next votes, depending on the political connections of those officers. Now there is a lot of talk about irregular warfare and so called “ukrainian experiences” as if the ethnic, political and economical situation of Poland was the same and Russians had any hold or sympathy among our population. Pure political bullshit scheme to get some money for cushy jobs for the residential clown experts with general stars and professorial titles and their cronies at the expense of really useful things – like system of reserves or viable civil defense system built by communist regime before 1989 with ABC warfare in mind that now simply does not exist. But hey, the media would be bored and there just got to be swift results before next election. So, the spirit may still be there, but the wits and means are lacking

  • Sergey Tokarev

    Nice analysis, except 1) Is Poland prepared to fight possible invasion of Botswana off? 2) In case Martians attack Poland, by which weapons would Poland intercept Martian spacecraft?

  • Murf

    Poland just announce they are going with the Patriot missile system. They are going to buy six launchers with an option for two more.

  • Adam Wade

    This article is such a garbage propaganda writing!

    This comment of yours “Poland is the European state most at risk to be devastated by Russia” is ignorant and full of it! Russia is the only SUPERPOWER country now that is defending white and non-white Christians and Catholics from the evil “Zajonists” which took control of the EU and u s for the last 40 or so years. Zajonists started communists in Russia before WW1 and thank God they are OUT of Russia now, BUT they took control of the west and want humanity to suffer at any cost creating artificial WW3 against Russia. Look what they done to Syria, Ukraine, Libya, Venezuela, Iraq and now they messing up Brazil.
    I hope God continues helping Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and rest of the world to eliminate the evil!!