A 2022-style global invasion from Belarus "will no longer be possible" because of how warfare has changed, Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, advisor to Ukraine's Minister of Defense, wrote on Telegram on 29 May. Though he did not rule out Russia using Belarusian territory to launch missiles or Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities.
The post appeared amid weeks of warnings from Ukrainian leadership about a steady Russian-Belarusian military buildup near the border. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April said Ukrainian intelligence had detected road construction and artillery positions on the Belarusian side of the border.
Flash maintained that the northern border is now "sufficiently fortified and covered by combat-ready troops."
"No more than a few hours"
"A 2022-style global invasion will no longer be possible. Warfare has changed. Any column of equipment won't last more than a few hours," Flash argued.
Opening a new front from Belarus could only serve to "draw part of our forces to a new section of the front," he added.
Real risk: missile or Shahed launchpad
Flash did not rule out the possibility that Russia would push Belarus to host launches of cruise missiles or Shahed drones in a scenario that is already partly underway.
Russia has been routing its drones through Belarusian cellular infrastructure and launching signal-relay balloons from Belarusian territory to extend the reach of its drone fleet, Euromaidan Press documented in May.
The defense ministry advisor added that Ukraine's Defense Forces "are ready for the most varied scenarios."
"Nothing to divide"
The advisor closed with an appeal to the Belarusian people, saying that he sincerely believes that the "people and army of Belarus see the current format and results of this war for all sides and won't allow themselves to be drawn into this madness."
"The people of Ukraine and Belarus have nothing to divide and nothing to fight over," he wrote.
His analysis tracks closely with a 26 May Institute for the Study of War assessment that a Belarusian ground invasion of Ukraine is very unlikely but that Russia may push Minsk to allow drone launches from Belarusian soil.
