Putin deciding on next stage of Donbas war — Portnikov

Putin

 

2015/03/19 • Analysis & Opinion

Political commentator Vitaliy Portnikov wrote in a recent article that the main question remaining after the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted amendments to the special law on self-government in the Donbas is whether Putin would dare launch a new Donbas war. Since Portnikov left the question open, Galinfo has asked him to explain his reasoning on the issue.

“This is an open question even for the president of the Russian Federation. Before launching a new offensive, it is necessary to realize its possible consequences and purpose. If we believe that Vladimir Putin’s goal is to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, then it is also necessary to understand to what extent this new offensive would destabilize the situation or if, on the contrary, it would bring about even greater cohesion of Ukrainians around their statehood and their determination to defend it at a time when the Russian army is seizing more and more pieces of Ukrainian territory,” Portnikov said.

According to Portnikov, the Russian president also will have to consider the economic situation in his own country, which is on the verge of collapse.

“Additionally, before risking a new offensive, he will have to consider the possible reaction of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. In fact, the Russian economy is in more serious trouble than it appears at first glance. And the statistical information the experts rely on is probably falsified. So basically we can say that the collapse of the Russian economy is inevitable and may occur over the next several months — not even years,” he said.

Portnikov added that after the murder of Boris Nemtsov, the internal political tension has grown in Russia and for that reason Putin cannot feel safe even in the middle of the country.

“Today, after the murder of Boris Nemtsov, there is serious destabilization of the internal Russian political system. The fighting among clans has escalated, and Vladimir Putin is no longer able to satisfy all those who support his throne, on whom his power depends. Thus, any failure, any mistake, may bring about the political collapse of the president of the Russian Federation, and under the current conditions in Russia, this political collapse my mean the destruction of the entire system as well as physical danger for Putin, his closest entourage and their families. Thus, Putin will have to think about the serious matter of safety when he decides on these issues,” Portnikov said.

Portnikov also believes that if Putin does not revise his policy, Russia may experience its biggest political collapse since the Muscovy era.

“I think the president of the Russian Federation does not have a clear answer to all these problems today, that he finds himself in a corner and cannot find any logical exit from this situation. For that reason, the situation will develop sporadically and will lead, without any doubt, to the most serious political, economic and social collapse of the Russian Federation of its entire history as a state on this territory since Muscovy era,” he said.

In the event that Putin still decides to risk war, the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU will be strengthened, which will accelerate the end of the Russian Federation.

“If Putin sill dares to take that step, then the new severe sanctions of the United States and the European Union are inevitable. The Minsk process is a chance for Putin to leave the game with the smallest losses for his economy and his future. If he does not take advantage of this chance, those who want to avoid further deterioration of the situation will have no choice but to continue the economic pressure on Russia,” he concluded.

Translated by: Anna Mostovych
Source: Galinfo

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  • Dirk Smith

    If he attacks Mariupol, it’s over. He’s done. Slava Azov!!

  • puttypants

    slava Azov!

  • disqus_aJpixObjG7

    here are NO REBELS in UKRAINE because there is NO CIVIL WAR,

    NO REBELLION. There is a RUSSIAN

    INVASION of UKRAINE BY russian FASCIST FORCES. Anyone who brings the word nazi

    or fascist in a reportage re UKRAINE is in fact an ACTIVE PUTINIST.

    FREE UKRAINE and its FREE PEOPLE WILL HAVE

    VICTORY OVER FASCIST RUSSIA:

    At this point the farce has developed to typical repetitive macchiavellian

    historical proportions.

    It is a BLACK AND WHITE story of GOOD AGAINST EVIL of UKRAINE defending itself against

    russia. It is a story of Abominable cowardice, abominable betrayal, abominable

    appeasement on the part of the West.

    A neo fascist, illegitimate, unelected (“elected” by massive electoral fraud)

    dictator and his neo fascist regime

    (78% of the Russian Duma are neo nazi, neo fascist and /or extreme right

    nationalist)

    invades a neighboring sovereign nation.

    He invades to punish it, to reconquer it for the crime of rising up en masse in

    a people’s revolution, overthrowing a murderous russian puppet who actively

    worked to destroy Ukraine and on the side embezzled over 100 billion dollars of

    state funds.

    In response, the West –all its politicians and all its media- rushes, scurries

    to the Kremlin to kneel behind the mass muderer Putin and get a long brown

    tongue.

    Ukraine does not need to ASK NATO for help because great Britain and the USA

    together with France and China are LEGALLY BOUND by the Budapest Memorandum to

    do- IMMEDIATELY, WITHOUT ANY ASKING- all that is necessary to drive russian invaders and

    their murderous terrorist proxies out of Ukraine, which includes Crimea, and to

    secure Ukraine’s borders.

    This implies not just the LEGALLY BINDING RESPONSIBILITY to supply Ukraine with

    overwhelming modern weaponry but also to provide ALL the “boots” on the ground

    as well as air and naval power needed to quickly accomplish this.

    So any talk of perhaps, maybe, one day considering to eventually propose to

    think about and possibly discuss the abstract idea of deciding to supply arms

    to Ukraine” is simply ILLEGAL AND CRIMINAL-

    a negation of international law and Legally binding obligations.

    As putin, the illegitimate neo fascist dictator pursues his goal of creating

    another NORTH KOREA ON A MASSIVE SCALE, the entire post-decadent and now

    degenerate West, scurries to appease the criminal russian dictator, but offers

    NO HELP WHATSOEVER to Ukraine.

    The left and the neo nazis of Europe and America have revealed their true

    fundamentally identical twin nature. They have revealed their pervert

    incestuous love affair, and entered into a three-way love affair with putin.

    UKRAINIANS DO NOT SHELL UKRAINIANS.

    RUSSIAN FASCIST INVADERS OF UKRAINE

    SHELL UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS after every russian “humanitarian” convoy

    brings thousands of tons of rockets mortars and artillery shells the russian

    FASCIST RUSSIAN BANDITS start up again shooting them at UKRAINIAN PEOPLE and destroying them and their houses. Then they BRAINWASH the people telling the that Ukrainians, not russians shelled them. All Western journalists repeat this abominable lie.

  • Michel Cloarec

    One thing putin should do without losing his face , is to let the terrorists leaders deal with Kiev and wash his hands . Nobody will blame him !

  • disqus_aJpixObjG7

    soon, soon, the demonic genocidal fascist putin will be dead… along with all the murderous russian riff raff that is invading UKRAINE. Soon, soon they will perish… motorola, givi and all the other such foreign rapists, heroin dealers and murderers invading UKRAINE