Luhansk Border and Southern Region
The Russian Federation continues to transfer troops across the border, heading towards Rovenky and Sverdlovsk. Given that the Russian troops are dug in near Gukovo (Rostov Oblast of the Russian Federation), the decision of the ATO command to withdraw its forces towards Chervonopartyzansk is probably correct. Yes, this exposes a part of the border but it also move units to a much safer position. Besides, in case of a successful Ukrainian advance upon Shakhtarsk, Torez and Snizhne from the West and North West and an advance from the area of Savur-Mohyla towards Dmytrivka-Dyakove-Rovenky, the terrorists will be pushed out towards the Russian Federation and will become the problem of the Russian border guards.
According to the data of our group (Inform Napalm) the ATO forces failed to retain control over the M04 highway and as a result the Ukrainian units in Lutuhyne and Heorhiivka were cut off. Given that the terrorists are led by experts from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and not a rabble of separatist criminals, we should expect an attack upon the grouping of the ATO forces from the direction of Rovenky and Alchevsk (see the map) in the next few days. The latest developments show that the terrorists are fighting in a tactically competent manner.
Luhansk Oblast: Northern Areas
Yesterday we predicted the possibility of a counter attack on the rear of the Ukrainian forces advancing upon Pervomaisk. However it seems the terrorists have missed their opportunity. However, they continue to build up their forces in Pervomaisk, Irmino, Stakhankov, Bryanka, and Kirovsk. Today we have slightly modified the map in the area of Lysychansk by moving the northern holding lines slightly down. Our analysis of the terrorist grouping in that area and the other grouping that was located near Lysychansk shows the approximate equality of the forces from both sides. However, by all theory of military warfare the attack forces should exceed the forces of the defensive side three to four times. This brings us to the conclusion that the militants consciously retreated to the new lines. This is probably their strategic maneuver and not a measure that ATO has forced upon them.
Donetsk Oblast: North of Donetsk and Horlivka
The Ukrainian forces continue to encircle the terrorist grouping in Horlivka. Yasynuvata has also become a stumbling block in that terrorist units continue to fight for this area, which is why there is no final success in the encirclement of this area.
Donetsk Oblast: Southern and Eastern/Central Areas
The terrorists have regrouped for a counterattack in the area of Marinka and Khartsyzk-Shakhtarsk.
Over the past day the militants continued to counter attack in the area of Shakhtarsk, along the N21 highway and in the north-eastern direction (Kirovske and Rozsypne). We would like to point out that if the ATO forces successfully advance towards Fashchivka, they could be counterattacked by terrorist forces from Stakhanov and Irmino, moving towards Shakhtarsk. If successful, this counter attack could lead to the Ukrainian attack group been cut off.
Comments on Military Strategy
Now let us make a practical suggestion. Currently the Ukrainian forces are not fighting the regular military forces. They are fighting the forces of the Russian Federation, which imitate the terrorists. If there is a great desire to liberate Donetsk with minimal losses, you need to apply the same tactics of the enemy. Remember how the invasion of the `Colorado’s’ (the stripedpest) started in the Donbas. They captured Sloviansk and consolidated, spread to Kramatorsk and consolidated, then went on to next city. The Ukrainian forces still live in the old field armies of the USSR Constitution: liberated the town and moved on. As a result they receive acts of sabotage in the rear. Why not try at first to solve the problem in the Pervomaisk area, and only then to move to Shakhtarsk? By “solve the problem” we mean seizing the city, and fully mopping-up the city and the surrounding area, and then holding the area. Such holding actions require the detention of all people involved in sponsoring or supporting terrorists. The Ukrainian forces should apply the rule that anyone who has ever held in their hands the weapons with no right to its possession is a criminal, regardless of whether or not it has been shot. Tough? Yes, but otherwise we get a Chechnya for next 10 years…
Translated by Victoria Field and Oxana Tinko, edited by Larry Field
- Русский: Антитеррористическая операция в Украине. Сводка по состоянию на 12:00 2 августа 2014
- Беларуская: Антытэрарыстычная апэрацыя ў Украіне. Зводкі па стане на 12:00 2 жніўня 2014
- Українська: Антитерористична операція в Україні. Зведення за станом на 12:00 2 серпня 2014
- Français: OPERATION ANTI-TERRORISTE EN UKRAINE. RESUME A MIDI LE 2 AOUT 2014
- English: The Anti-Terrorist Operation in Ukraine: Summary for August 2, 2014