Dmitry Tymchuk’s Military Blog: Summary – July 14, 2014

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2014/07/15 • Daily Updates

Brothers and sisters!

Here’s the Summary for July 14, 2014 (for previous summary, please see Summary for July 11).

The bad news:

1. Today, the enemy shot down our [cargo] plane An-26. There is no clear information regarding all the crewmembers, let’s hope that the guys will be alright. It is currently known that two pilots have been captured by the insurgents. I believe that the Ministry of Defense will do everything possible to ensure their release.

The plane was shot down at an altitude of 6,500 meters [21,325 feet]. The MANPADS used by terrorists (including the latest Russian 9K333 “Willow”) don’t shoot this high. On these grounds, the RNBO [National Security and Defense Council] suggests that our plane was shot down by either a Russian fighter jet, or a Russian MANPAD from the territory of the Russian Federation.

Taking into account that the Russian army no longer hesitates to support terrorists by openly moving its equipment designed for insurgents across the border, there was nothing surprising about such “support.” And the more successfully the ATO advances, the less effort the Kremlin is making to mask its aggression against Ukraine.

2. NATO has once again called on Russia to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the leaders of some European members of NATO are all broadcasting about some “negotiations of parties in Ukraine through Russia as an intermediary” and the “peaceful settlement of the problem.”

Those leaders can be understood. They [act out of] their obviously selfish interests–”Gazprom” neither sleeps nor skimps. And it is quite obvious that these gentlemen are more frightened of penniless old age than the safety of their own continent.

3. Once more about the unhealthy resonance around the “Russian invasion.” I already gave a separate comment about the “Russian invasion of July 15″ (regarding the media broadcasts of my morning announcement), let me repeat it again.

Nobody says that tomorrow there will be a Russian war against Ukraine in a different format than the one that we have been seeing for [the past] four months. As of tomorrow, the commanders of the Russian special forces groups must be ready for deployment to Ukraine. We already went through it in April, when the Russian subversive and reconnaissance groups [SRG] roamed around Donbas just like in [their own] home.

We, the IR group, do not think that Russia is ready for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine–with escalating numbers of Russian troops on the border, we don’t observe “complete” operational and tactical groups, which will be able to carry out such an invasion. Perhaps there will be attempts to invade under the guise of “peacekeepers,” but this is clearly a fallback. For now, the Kremlin’s task is to maximally destabilize the situation in Donbas with the goal to draw the conflict out into a full-blown civil war.

There is one way to counter this scenario: to effectively continue the ATO, and to begin with carving out terrorist groups from the Russian border. And this is generally what the ATO forces are doing now. I sincerely believe that these efforts will be crowned with complete success. But just the very preparation by Russia to expand the format of its secret aggression against Ukraine is not encouraging.

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Dmitry Tymchuk, Coordinator, Information Resistance

Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

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