Russia’s new Kyiv strike threat is posturing for the Victory Day humiliation, not retaliation—ISW

On 25 May, Russia threatened systematic strikes on Kyiv "in violation of the spirit of the Victory Day ceasefire, likely to posture strength after the humiliation of the ceasefire itself," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote. The EU, France, Poland, and Ukraine's Foreign Ministry refused to leave the Ukrainian capital within hours. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio took Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's call but downplayed the message.

ISW: The threat hides a humiliated Kremlin

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned of "systematic" strikes against Ukrainian defense industrial facilities, drone production sites, and decision-making centers in Kyiv. The ministry called on foreign citizens, diplomats, and international organizations to leave the city. It also urged Kyiv residents to stay clear of military and government infrastructure.

"Russia’s warning and continued strikes are an attempt to obfuscate Russia’s weakness," ISW wrote.

Putin is trying to recover from the embarrassment of asking Kyiv to allow his 9 May Victory Day parade. He is also trying to distract from Moscow's failure to shield its capital and deep-rear cities from Ukraine's expanding long-range drone strikes. The think tank added that Putin is struggling to shield Russians from the economic strain of the war, and that Russian forces are failing to make operationally significant advances in the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.

The Kremlin framed its new threat as retaliation for Ukraine's 21-22 May strikes on a former college in occupied Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast. Ukraine's General Staff reported the site had been turned into a barracks for the elite Russian Rubicon drone unit. 

Lavrov phoned Rubio the same day to relay the message and push the line that Ukraine and its European partners were sabotaging peace efforts, ISW noted.

The framing fails on its own timeline. Russia began intensifying strikes on Kyiv from the night of 12-13 May — over a week before the Starobilsk hit. That combined assault destroyed a section of a Darnytskyi-district apartment block and ultimately killed 24 civilians. The Kremlin also blamed its 23-24 May assault on Kyiv on Starobilsk. 

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Brussels, Warsaw, Paris, and Kyiv refused to leave

EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová called Moscow's statement "a masterpiece of hypocrisy," ZN reported. 

"A regime that has been bombing residential buildings, museums, maternity hospitals, schools, and power plants for years has suddenly started speaking the language of 'international humanitarian law' and 'the Geneva Conventions,'" she said. "The EU isn't going anywhere. We are staying in Kyiv. We are staying with Ukraine. Kyiv stands. Ukraine stands. And we do too."

The French embassy in Ukraine told Interfax-Ukraine it would continue operating as usual, condemning Moscow's threat as unacceptable and contrary to Russia's international obligations.

Poland went further. Warsaw warned on 25 May that it would treat any attack on Polish diplomatic missions as deliberate, RFE/RL reported.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry called the Russian threats "shameless blackmail" in a 25 May statement, thanking diplomats who continue working in the country. The ministry said Moscow is effectively admitting its attacks aim to intimidate the foreign diplomatic corps — admissions it called future evidence in international legal proceedings against the aggressor state. 

Rubio took Lavrov's call—and softened the response

Rubio told reporters Lavrov had passed him a message from Putin intended for Trump, which he relayed, RFE/RL journalist Alex Raufoglu reported. 

Rubio downplayed any suggestion that Russia had specifically pressed the US to withdraw embassy staff from Kyiv. Moscow had broadly warned diplomatic facilities that the Ukrainian capital remained dangerous, he said.

"The danger in all of these wars, as they continue and then they go on, is that they always have the threat of escalation," Rubio said.