There is no clear evidence that Russian oil flows have been significantly limited to India. This comes after US President Donald Trump claimed last week that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him during a phone call that his country would stop buying Russian oil, Bloomberg reports.
However, India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated it was unaware of any such conversation. However, there are signs that some Indian refineries are diversifying their crude supplies.
Russia saves its huge oil profits after talks with the US president
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been able to block actions by his American counterpart that could have hurt Russia’s oil sector.
Maritime shipments of Russian crude hit record levels
Additionally, over the past four weeks, Russian seaborne crude exports have reached the highest level in 29 months, approaching the level highs from early 2022, before it began its full-scale war against Ukraine.
According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, average shipments from Russian ports over four weeks reached 3.82 million barrels per day as of 19 October, up 80,000 barrels from the previous four-week period and the highest level since May 2023.
Meanwhile, Russia is boosting crude production under its OPEC+ agreement with partners to restore some of the output cut in previous years and support prices.
However, export volumes may be approaching a peak, as ports operate near historical highs, repaired refineries after Ukrainian strikes are increasing throughput, and winter is approaching quickly.
The four-week metric shows that in the last period, 35 vessels carrying crude departed Russian ports weekly, just one ship shy of the maximum since early 2022, when Bloomberg began tracking weekly flows.
If Russia can maintain higher processing rates, some crude is likely to be redirected from export terminals to supply domestic fuel needs and the military.
