On 24 May, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces have significantly expanded their salient southwest of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, in easter Ukraine. This development could support a direct offensive on Kostiantynivka or support the envelopment of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from the northeast in the coming weeks and months.
ISW cited geolocated footage from 23 May showing Russian forces advancing south of Popiv Yar and capturing fields near the settlement. Russian milbloggers reported involvement of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division near Popiv Yar, as well as the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment near Novoolenivka. Additional Russian advances were reported toward Poltavka, Rusyn Yar, and Romanivka.
Ukrainian resistance slows Russian advances
Despite these movements, ISW emphasized that Russian forces must eliminate remaining Ukrainian positions southwest of Toretsk and push defenders north of the Kleban-Byk reservoir to continue their advance along the T-0504 Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka and H-20 Donetsk–Kostiantynivka highways.
Progress near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk remains slow due to heavily contested terrain and drone operations. ISW notes that Russian units still face difficulty breaking through Ukrainian defenses in these areas.
In Pokrovsk area, Russian forces recently intensified assaults to the southeast and south of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, possibly to support a planned future envelopment. However, earlier efforts to expand west of Pokrovsk were halted by Ukrainian counterattacks in February 2025. Russia has since shifted focus southwest toward Novopavlivka.
ISW concluded that, given limited manpower and matériel, Russia is unlikely to sustain major offensives toward both Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka simultaneously and will likely have to prioritize one direction.
“The Russian salient southwest of Kostyantynivka is likely sufficient to support a future Russian offensive operation toward Kostyantynivka or Pokrovsk, but Russian forces will have to make further advances from Chasiv Yar and Toretsk and west of Pokrovsk before Russian forces will pose a significant threat to either of these towns,” ISW wrote.
