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ISW: Russian advances slow despite maintaining high casualty rates

In January, Russia lost 96 soldiers per seized km², the second-highest monthly casualty rate after December.
byYuri Zoria
04/02/2025
2 minute read
russia deploys 50000 troops attempts reclaim kursk oblast before trump presidency dead russian soldiers svobodaorg
Dead Russian soldiers. Illustrative photo via svoboda.org
ISW: Russian advances slow despite maintaining high casualty rates

Russian forces suffered their second-highest monthly casualties of the full-scale invasion in January 2025 while their territorial gains decreased, the Institute for Study of War (ISW) reported on 3 February.

For months, Russia has been pushing to capture the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Chasiv Yar and other Ukrainian strongholds. Pokrovsk has been the focal point of Russia’s ground assaults. By late summer 2024, the situation near Pokrovsk had deteriorated with renewed Russian advances in the east. With frontal attacks being among Russia’s most used tactics, Russia’s casualties have been extremely high.

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Russian forces lost 48,240 troops in January 2025, equivalent to more than three Russian motorized rifle divisions, ISW reports.

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ISW’s analysis of geolocated evidence shows Russian forces captured approximately 498 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast during January, averaging 16.1 square kilometers per day. This suggests Russian forces suffered about 96 casualties for each square kilometer of seized territory, according to ISW.

December 2024 saw Russia’s highest monthly casualties since the February 2022 invasion, with 48,670 troops lost, according to the Ukrainian MoD. ISW assessed that Russian forces gained 593 square kilometers that month.

The approximately 100-square-kilometer decrease in territorial gains between December 2024 and January 2025, combined with similar casualty rates, indicates Russian forces are maintaining high losses despite achieving fewer advances, ISW reports.

ISW previously observed that Russian advances had already begun slowing from November to December 2024. While the Russian military command appeared willing to accept record casualties from September through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, ISW notes that “it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.”

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