The Russian army continues trying to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, a strategic hub the loss of which would significantly complicate Ukraine’s fighting in the area.
Despite multiple “human waves,” Russia has yet to capture the embattled city, with Estonia’s intel chief praising Ukraine’s Armed Forces for resisting the massive Russian assault.
In his analysis the “Greatest Russian Offensive”, OSINT researcher Volodymyr Dacenko explains what’s going on the battlefield.
We collected five main points below.
1. Losses are close to the number of the entire Western Military District of the Russian Federation as of 2022, which was being prepared for war with NATO. And this is about 60% of the forces with which Russia planned to seize Ukraine in three days in 2022
2. Russia’s total losses for 13 months of fighting in the Pokrovsky direction amount to about 150,000 soldiers killed and wounded. This is more than Russia’s losses in the battles for Bakhmut (100,000)
3. Russia lost more tanks at Pokrovsk than any country in Europe has in its army. Or more soldiers than the entire Armed Forces of the United Kingdom. Remember this when you read the news about the battles for a small town in eastern Ukraine.
4. Probably, in the coming months, no less brutal battles and frontal attacks by the Russian army await us. These months will be the culmination of the Pokrovsk offensive. An offensive in which Russia will lose three armies to assert the ambitions of its dictator.
5. It is hard to believe, but the Russian losses of armored vehicles at Pokrovsk are greater than the losses of the German army in the Battle of Stalingrad.
The dynamics of Russia’s losses have also been consistently high, according to Dacenko’s estimates made back in November.
Recently quoting the tweet dated 10 November he writes: “Russia is suffering more and more losses trying to look like the side that is winning. The dynamics of Russian losses indicates the price of the Russian offensive.”
According to his estimates based on OSINT analysis, Russia’s daily losses skyrocketed from 200 lost soldiers daily to 1500 in 2024. F
urthermore, Russia loses 10,5 soldiers per kilometer of the occupied territory of Ukraine, an indicator that exceeds most recent wars with the exception of the Korean War.
Dacenko’s analysis ultimately begs the question: if Russia needs this much manpower and military equipment to conquer a town the size of Oosterhout in The Netherlands, why do the Allies not supply us with the weapons they have and don’t need to finish the job?
