Although the situation on the front lines looks grim for Ukraine, it is far from cheerful for Russia as well—despite the picture painted by its propaganda—especially when comparing Russia’s losses to its territorial gains, CNN reports.
The situation on the Ukrainian front lines remains intense as of November 2024, with ongoing combat across multiple fronts, particularly in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk areas. Ukrainian forces are facing increased Russian attacks, especially in Sumy Oblast, while also repelling numerous assaults in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian losses are exceeding 1,300 soldiers in a single day, and overall casualties surpassing 700,000 since the all-out began.
Despite losses, Russia managed to achieve territorial gains in eastern Ukraine and seize the initiative on the front lines.
“The Russians are the ones taking action, and they’re forcing the Ukrainians to respond. That’s not a good thing because you lose wars by constantly being on the defensive,” said George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War.
Currently, Ukraine is dealing with several complex sectors along the front. One of them is the area near Kupiansk, a city that served as a crucial transportation hub before the war and is now at risk of reoccupation by Russian forces. If that happens, it would create additional pressure on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
Another challenging area is around the city of Kurakhove, located approximately 40 kilometers south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. It has also been described as a critical logistical hub in this sector. Concerns about an imminent Russian capture of Pokrovsk were raised as early as this summer, but the city has not yet been captured.
Barros pointed out that the situation around Pokrovsk highlights Russia’s inability to achieve its publicly declared objectives despite their apparent advances.
“They were working towards trying to seize Pokrovsk this fall, but they have abandoned this operational objective, and they’ve actually started attacking in a different direction,” Barros said.
He added that this reflects not only Russia’s resource constraints but also the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defense efforts.
According to ISW estimates, Russia has lost enough military equipment near Pokrovsk over the past year to outfit five mechanized divisions, including hundreds of tanks and armored personnel carriers.
“To lose five divisions worth of tanks and other personnel carriers over the course of a year to only advance about 40 kilometers, you can go and compare this to all the other major mechanized offenses of the 21st century and even the great battles of the Second World War …. that’s actually a really terrible performance,” Barros said.
The analyst is convinced that at this rate of losses—and with continued Western support for Ukraine—Russia may be forced to reconsider its ability to sustain the war within a year or 18 months.
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