War in Ukraine, day 20: Temporary lull; Ukraine repulses attack on Mariupol; 20,000 reportedly join Foreign Legion

“The twentieth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the Russian military invasion began.

[The enemy continues the offensive operation against our State.]

Status, position, and nature of actions of the defense forces without significant changes.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are inflicting devastating blows on groups of troops and the rear infrastructure of the occupiers.

The groups of the occupying forces involved in the offensive did not have significant success in all areas of advance. The main efforts continue to be focused on maintaining the occupied borders.

[The enemy continues to use aircraft to support ground forces and destroy military and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.]

[The formation of additional occupation units to conduct hostilities on the territory of Ukraine continues. According to available information, the enemy plans to strengthen the grouping of troops of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv direction.]

[In the Volyn direction, there is a high probability of provocations at Belarusian facilities in order to involve the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the conflict.]

[In the Polissya direction, the occupying forces are fighting in the areas of the settlements of Poliske, Kropyvnya, Zakharivka, Olyva, Sloboda, Kukharska, Zhovtneve, Ozershchyna, Lypivka, Kopyliv, Motyzhyn, Buzova, Horenychi, Bucha, and Demydiv.]

[In the Siverstky direction, the enemy is fighting in the areas of the settlements of Lyubech, Slavutych, Kovryta, Zolotynka, Mena, Branytsia, Kalita, Bogdanivka, Lukash, Romny, Nedrigailiv.]

[Russian enemy does not carry out active offensive actions. It carries out regrouping of troops, improves the logistics system in order to prepare and resume the offensive in the direction of Brovary.]

[In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy does not stop trying to surround Sumy and conducts hostilities in the areas of Svatove, Izium, Hrushevakha, Petrivske, Husarivka, Balakliya, Lyman, Malynivka, Kochetok, Bezruky, Oleksandrivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Tarashivka, Nedrygailiv, Romny, Talalaivka.]

[The enemy does not carry out active offensive actions. In order to strengthen terrorist groups in the areas of Sumy, Okhtyrka, Kharkiv, and Izium, regroups troops and consolidate on the captured borders. At the same time, there are problems with the supply of ammunition to the firing positions.]

[In order to replenish units of the 6th General Army, conscripts are urged to move to contract service.]

[In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the occupiers are fighting with certain forces in the areas of the settlements of Borova, Ternove, Novokrasnyanka, Luhanske, Horlivka, Panteleimonivka, Mykilske, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Kamyanske.]

[In the Avdiivka direction in the area of settlement Kamyanka, during the reconnaissance battle, the occupiers suffered significant losses and were forced to withdraw.]

[In the Volnovakha direction, the enemy does not stop trying to breakthrough in the direction of Vuhledar.]

The enemy is trying to capture Mariupol. Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed the attacks of the invaders. The total losses of the enemy amounted to about 150 people, 2 tanks, 7 infantry fighting vehicles and one armored personnel carrier. After the losses, the occupiers stopped the offensive and retreated.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1503504952404381699

[Ukrainian] Artillery and aircraft inflicted fire damage on the accumulation of military equipment and enemy columns on the advance routes. According to the available information, as a result of the artillery fire, 12 units of motor vehicles were destroyed.

The battalion also suffered tactical groups from the 336th Separate Marine Brigade and the 11th Separate Assault Brigade.

[In the Pivdennyi Buh directions, the enemy is trying to gain a foothold in the areas of Tomyna Balka, Nadezhdivka, Kiselivka, Pervomaiskе, Mykhailo-Larine, Ulyanovsk, Pisky, Dobre, Snihurivka, Arkhangelske, Zagradivka, Osokorovka, Beryslav, Kakhovka.]

No signs of preparation for a naval landing operation were found in the Black Sea and Azov operational zones.

During the past 24hrs, four helicopters, one plane and a fighter shot down an enemy cruise missile were hit by a group of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the available information, due to the inability to maintain the functioning of institutions and organizations to ensure the livelihood of settlements in the temporarily occupied territories of ORDLO (certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts), the occupiers are forced to suspend the mobilization of communal workers.

Uses a network of health care facilities in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to treat wounded personnel.

The moral and psychological state of the enemy remains low, which leads to the refusal of servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces to carry out the orders of the command. Also, according to available information, mobilized residents from the occupied territory of some districts of Luhansk oblast are sent to replenish the losses of active units of the Russian occupation forces involved in hostilities in Ukraine.”

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 24 hours):

• Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian-occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk.
• Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimize the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
• Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
• Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
• Russian accusations that Ukraine intends to use chemical and biological weapons continue. We have seen no evidence to support these accusations.
• Russia could possibly be planning to use chemical or biological weapons in a ‘false-flag’ operation. Such an operation could take the form of a faked attack, a staged ‘discovery of agents or munitions, or fabricated evidence of alleged Ukrainian planning to use such weapons. A ‘false-flag’ attack would almost certainly be accompanied by extensive disinformation to complicate attribution.
• Intelligence suggests Russia likely intended to use ‘false-flag’ operations to justify their initial invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

“More than 1,700 people were evacuated (Monday] through humanitarian corridors in the Luhansk Oblast. For the fourth day, attempts continue to unblock the movement of a convoy with 90 tons of humanitarian cargo trying to reach Mariupol (now 60 kilometers away). It was blocked by shelling from Russian troops in violation of the Geneva Convention and previous written agreements.

The number of civilians killed in Mariupol has already exceeded 2,500 people (City Council). There was no evacuation from the Sumy Oblast, where Russian troops compromised the ceasefire, and in the Kharkiv Oblast because of a destroyed bridge.

The occupants blew up the bridge between Enerhodar (Zaporizhzhia NPP) and Zaporizhzhia. As a result, any transportation, including humanitarian convoys and evacuation of people, is temporarily impossible.

In Chernihiv, 70% of the population is without electricity. The occupants bombed one of the pumping stations that supply water to the city and an underground gas storage facility in the Chernihiv region. Four people died. Russian troops also shelled Chernihiv Polytechnic National University.

In Zaporizhia, sewage treatment plants were destroyed, and sewage entered the Dnipro River.

At night, a residential area in Kyiv was shelled. A Russian shell hit a high-rise building. Two people died, and three were hospitalized in the collapse of the residential building. The remnants of a Russian cruise missile shot down by Ukrainian air defenses fell in another district of Kyiv, killing one person and wounding six.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1503375259084468231

In the morning, the Russian occupants fired on the Antonov factory and in the evening, the large Lavina Mall shopping center. Despite the night shelling, the situation in Kyiv is stable. The metro trains are operating, and more than 30 markets are working in Kyiv, in addition to chain stores, to provide food.

A TV tower near Rivne was damaged as a result of an airstrike, 9 people died and 9 were injured.

In Kherson and Melitopol, despite the danger, local rallies continue against the Russian military, which has temporarily taken over these cities. Occupiers traditionally blocked communications and the Internet in an attempt to stop the demonstrations.”

Russians opened fire on civilians at a peaceful rally in Kherson. Acc to local journalist Ryzhenko, there were shots in the legs; Russian troops shot at least one man in the leg with a rubber bullet,–UkrPravdapic.twitter.com/Y9yxOwC3LK

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 13, 2022

“Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine.

Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions.

Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted several limited attacks northwest of Kyiv on March 14, unsuccessfully attempting to bridge the Irpin River.
• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units.
• The continued ability of Ukrainian forces to carry out successful local counterattacks around Kharkiv indicates that Russian forces are unlikely to successfully bypass Kharkiv from the southeast to advance toward Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia in the near term.
• Russian and proxy forces continue to achieve slow but steady territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast after initial failures in the first week of the Russian invasion.
• Ukrainian forces halted Russian attacks from Kherson toward Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih on March 14.
• Russia will likely deploy small units of Syrian fighters to Ukraine within the week and is confirmed to have deployed private military company (PMC) forces.
• Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.
• Russia and China deny that Russia seeks military aid from China and claimed that Russia does not need additional military support to complete its objectives in Ukraine.”

[…By ] analysing three maps depicting the operational picture, including one released by the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) and two curated by open-source investigators – the Twitter account Jomini of the West and Konrad Muzyka’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor – it is apparent that Russian forces are making progress. […]

Though it seems clear that the initial Russian plan was based around a swift coup de main against Kyiv while the bulk of the Ukrainian army was pinned in the east opposite Donetsk and Luhansk, this is unlikely to remain the case.

Even under best-case assumptions (from a Russian perspective), it is unlikely that Kyiv will be taken soon. However, it is worth considering that there is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity – alluded to by Vladimir Putin in his pledge to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine – the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO).

The position of this force is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes.

Russian forces of the 58th Combined Arms Army and 22nd Army, pushing north from Crimea, have commenced assaults on Beryslav along the Dnieper, and appear likely to link up at Polohy with Russian separatist forces and the Eighth Combined Arms Army advancing from Donbas.

Elements of the First Guards Tank Army and Sixth Combined Arms Army advancing past Kharkiv also appear to have largely eschewed attempts to take the city – focusing instead on reducing it with artillery while bypassing it as they advance south and west past Poltava, cutting the JFO off from escaping northwards.

Finally, in the southwest, Russian forces of the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division appear similarly intent on bypassing Mykolaiv but, notably, may not be advancing on Odesa. Instead, they appear to be advancing north, which could suggest a desire to seize the western banks of key crossing points over the Dnieper.

Viewed in conjunction, these advances present a troubling picture whereby the Ukrainian forces opposite Donetsk and Luhansk are at risk of encirclement on the eastern side of the Dnieper.

If this is indeed the focus of Russia’s approach, then the emphasis on Russia’s ability to take major cities as a metric of success will have been an analytical error, as Russia appears more intent on pinning Ukrainian forces in cities like Kharkiv while it bypasses them. Indeed, preparations for an amphibious assault on Odesa may have been a feint, given that the ground forces such an assault could have linked up with appear to be moving north.

The elimination of a large part of the country’s regular armed forces could lead Russia to claim it had achieved its goal of demilitarising Ukraine.

For Ukraine, this represents a critical moment. The encirclement and destruction of a large part of the country’s regular armed forces could represent a victory condition for Russia in two ways. […]

To hold Kyiv and other major cities at the cost of allowing the forces of the JFO to be encircled could prove disastrous.

Even if Ukraine will not collapse following the encirclement and destruction of the JFO, the elimination of this force could lead Russia to claim it had achieved its goal of demilitarising Ukraine and would enable an annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk at a minimum.

Finally, it is worth considering the importance of regulars in any post-war campaign mounted against Russian occupation. Compound warfare, involving both regular and irregular formations, tends to have a good track record of eventually defeating occupation by a stronger force, with examples including the Peninsular War and Chinese Civil War. It is, in many ways, preferable to a pure insurgency strategy.

While irregulars can raise the costs of occupation and harass supply lines, they require a regular force to both pin the attention of an occupier and conduct eventual counteroffensives. The survival of the forces currently in the east of Ukraine would therefore be critical to an insurgency’s success.”