Ukraine’s failure to anticipate and prepare for Russian threats is a bigger problem than the shortage of air defenses, says Oleksandr Kovalenko of the Information Resistance group. Russia, meanwhile, has demonstrated its ability to develop and execute medium-term plans for terror operations that can take years to prepare, according to Obozrevatel.
Russian forces adapt almost every month to new challenges and opportunities, scaling up their attacks. The use of jet-powered Banderol drone missiles is one example.
Russia is now employing a “tactical adaptive distribution” approach, flexibly redirecting missiles and strike drones toward different regions and rear cities depending on Ukrainian air-defense capabilities.
The main difference
The key change in Russia’s 2026 campaign against Ukraine’s rear areas has been the growing use of jet-powered drones based on the Iranian Shahed-238 and Karrar, which Russia has localized as Geran-3/4/5.
Russia first used a jet-powered kamikaze drone against Ukraine in January 2024. These weapons have been continuously upgraded over the past two years.
Ukraine, however, failed to adequately anticipate the threat and now lacks an effective, low-cost way to intercept Geran-3/4/5 drones, Kovalenko says. Russian forces used more than 1,400 jet-powered drones in the first half of 2026 alone, compared with 180 throughout all of 2025.
“It is possible that the facility in Alabuga, Tatarstan, could eventually be fully converted to producing jet-powered kamikaze drones as part of this strategy,” the analyst said.
What comes next: strikes on Kyiv to exert psychological pressure
A significant share of Russia’s new hard-to-intercept weapon variants appears to be concentrated for strikes on Kyiv.
Russian forces are seeking to exploit Ukraine’s acute shortage of Patriot and SAMP/T interceptors, using the opportunity to intensify their campaign of terror. Russia has previously used similar tactics to exert psychological pressure on civilians and disrupt economic activity in regions including Kharkiv and Odesa.
The same approach could increasingly be directed at the capital, particularly ahead of and during Ukraine’s Independence Day.
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