The area under Russian control across Ukraine grew by only 36 square kilometers, which is roughly 60% of Manhattan, in July 2026, according to the Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState.
DeepState recorded the meager increase as Moscow shifts toward sending small groups and lone soldiers through Ukrainian lines under drone cover.
The new tactics have produced few territorial gains.
Russia’s stalled Donetsk advance loses pace
DeepState said the 36-square-kilometer figure covers the entire front, not just Donetsk Oblast. It also includes corrections to data from May and June. Without those corrections, Russia’s July gains would total about 88 square kilometers.
DeepState’s figure could change again because some Ukrainian gains have not yet been added to the map for security reasons.
"At its current pace, Russia has no chance of capturing all of Donetsk Oblast, even in 2027," DeepState said.
That forecast could change if Russia launches another wave of mobilization in the fall, DeepState cautioned. Moscow's pace of advance also depends on how widely it deploys North Korean troops.
Russia made only limited progress in the hardest-hit sectors, including near Rodynske and Kostiantynivka and toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk—the heart of Ukraine’s “fortress belt".
Dense drone coverage has also changed the battlefield. Russia’s next large attacks are unlikely to resemble the mass “meat-wave” assaults previously seen near Selydove and Kurakhove, DeepState said. Ukrainian drone crews often hunt lone Russian soldiers across vast parts of the frontline.
Russia loses more troops for shrinking gains
Russia’s limited gains on the ground came during its worst month for casualties in 2026. Ukraine’s General Staff estimated that Russian forces lost 42,860 troops killed or wounded in July alone, or roughly 1,380 casualties per day. However, the figures cannot be independently verified.
Then commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russia’s losses during the first half of 2026 exceeded the number of recruits for the first time since 24 February 2022.
The Kremlin has still not dropped its territorial demands. Russian officials insist that Ukraine surrender the entire Donbas, seeing the region as a political prize. DeepState previously noted that capturing the rest of Donetsk Oblast would take Moscow two more years of fighting and cause "a colossal number of losses."
Bloomberg reported in May that Russian leader Vladimir Putin wanted to end Russia’s war by the end of 2026, with Moscow controlling all of Donbas. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied Putin had set such a deadline.
