Bloomberg tanker-tracking data show Russia shipped 4.13 million barrels of crude a day by sea in the four weeks through 28 June—the highest since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Yet the gross value of those shipments fell to $1.9 billion a week, the lowest since March.
Russia’s oil exporters are moving record volumes without receiving a larger return.
The Bloomberg calculation multiplies tanker volumes by prices by Argus Media, an independent energy and commodity price-reporting agency, so the $1.9 billion figure measures gross seaborne crude value rather than federal tax receipts. Russia’s oil exporters are moving record volumes without receiving a larger return for their cargoes.
$45 was not June’s average
The Moscow Times report says Argus assessed Urals, Russia’s main export grade, at $44.96 per barrel on 26 June—40% below the start of June and less than half April’s $115 peak, when disruption in the Strait of Hormuz had briefly erased Urals’ discount to Brent.
If prices remain near $45, they will stay below the $59-per-barrel average.
Bloomberg estimated Urals’ June average at about $62 per barrel, meaning the late-month assessment was not the price received throughout June and may not mark a lasting floor. But if prices remain near $45, they will stay below the $59-per-barrel average assumed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov for Russia’s 2026 oil-and-gas revenues.
The Moscow Times report put Pacific Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil at $61.27 per barrel on 26 June, 20% below the start of June and 36% below early May. Like Urals, it had returned to early-March levels.
Why Russia is exporting more
Kyiv School of Economics oil tracker says Ukrainian drone strikes reduced refinery runs and forced Russia to ship more unprocessed crude in April and May, while a shortage of shadow-fleet tankers pushed it back toward Western maritime services.
Bloomberg market analysis points out that lower global benchmarks, an interim US-Iran deal that began restoring Persian Gulf flows, and muted Chinese demand have all weighed on Russian prices.
Russia had 133 million barrels at sea on 28 June, 34% above its mid-April low, with cargoes accumulating near Egypt and Singapore.
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The budget can’t ignore lower prices
Russia’s 2026 budget law projected a full-year federal deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles ($49 billion).
Ministry figures via Prime show oil-and-gas revenue was 2.98 trillion rubles ($39 billion) in January–May, down 29.8% from a year earlier. The federal deficit had already reached 6 trillion rubles ($78 billion) by the end of May. The Finance Ministry attributed the early deficit partly to faster spending, and said lower oil prices in previous periods had cut energy revenue.
The federal deficit had already reached 6 trillion rubles ($78 billion) by the end of May.
The Finance Ministry reserves data place liquid National Wealth Fund assets at 3.4 trillion rubles ($44 billion) on 1 June, down from 3.6 trillion rubles ($47 billion) a month earlier. That is the fund’s liquid portion, rather than its total reported value.
Ukrainian strikes add barrels, markets cut their value
KSE’s June oil tracker says Ukrainian strikes forced Russia to export more unprocessed crude after refinery runs fell. That helps explain why more Russian barrels are moving offshore, but not why they are earning less.
Ukraine’s refinery campaign appears to be adding barrels to Russia’s export stream.
Bloomberg’s market analysis links the price decline to lower global benchmarks, recovering Persian Gulf flows, and subdued Chinese demand. For now, Ukraine’s refinery campaign appears to be adding barrels to Russia’s export stream—while the market cuts the value of each one.
