Russia probably has just one Oreshnik missile out of the four ordered built in 2025. Building more will be a major struggle, according to a new investigation by Dallas Analytics.
The Kremlin billed the Oreshnik as one of its scariest weapons, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that could hit up to 5,500 kilometers away with up to six multiple independent reentry vehicles, carrying six submunitions apiece.
However, Russia is bottlenecked by the dearth of critical parts for the Oreshnik adapted from obsolete Soviet tech. These include the GU-503 gyro, which the missile needs to maintain a precise ballistic trajectory, if the Russians hope to actually hit their intended targets, no matter how wide of an area the Oreshnik’s submunitions are designed to hit.
Following the missile's November 2024 debut strike, Russian leader Vladimir Putin quickly ordered four Oreshniks to be built in 2025. Three have subsequently been fired at Ukraine: one hit the Lviv region, one blasted some garages in Bila Tservka and one disappeared over occupied territory.
Reanimating an obsolete production chain
Dallas Analytics republished a May 2025 letter from the deputy director of the Michurinsk Plant "Progress" to the director general of the Azov Optical-Mechanical plant, both of which are part of Russia's missile manufacturing sector.
The letter says that the GU-503 gyro, developed in the 1970s, is "obsolete, many components have failed, and no replacements are available, as they are no longer manufactured." The letter recommends a complete redesign using modern electronics.
As a result, the "Progress" Plant claimed in May 2025 that "it's not possible to fulfill orders on time" and the unit cost will be “prohibitively high.”
The overhaul from scratch would have to be performed under tight engineering constraints, so that it could be slotted into the missile’s automated navigation package, without forcing a redesign of the entire package.
Forensics performed on downed Oreshniks in 2026 revealed GU-503s with 2025 manufacturing stamps, which suggests that the redesign was either scrapped or delayed.
Moscow's changing rhetoric
Putin's rhetoric on the missile has shifted as well. During his press briefing at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in 2026, the Russian leader said the Oreshnik is in a testing phase, contradicting his earlier statements that the missile is in serial production.
Oslo University missile expert Fabian Hoffmann has previously written that the Oreshnik's low accuracy has limited utility against individual buildings, but can still do damage against residential areas and sprawling industrial sites.
Furthermore, building the Oreshnik creates an opportunity cost for Russia's missile industry, whose ballistic missile production rate appears to be working at capacity, building weapons that actually work, like the Iskander and the Kinzhal.
