Russia is actively constructing new military infrastructure along its borders with Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, and Kaliningrad. Its potential capacity is for up to 115,000 personnel across all identified sites, according to a joint investigation by Swedish public broadcaster SVT, Norwegian public broadcaster NRK, Danish DR, and Estonian Delfi.
The Petsamo base, located 10 kilometers from the Norwegian border, is being expanded from its current capacity of 7,000 to 17,000 personnel.
"This is a threat we should take seriously. We don't think all of this is just for demonstration. This is about preparing capabilities for confrontation with NATO in a major conflict sometime later," said Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish military intelligence (MUST).
A Ukrainian ceasefire that releases Russian military personnel from the front lines would free them to deploy to the newly constructed northern infrastructure.
Sites identified
The investigation identified Russian military construction at multiple locations along NATO's northern and Baltic flanks, based on satellite imagery analysis:
- Petsamo — 10 kilometers from the Norwegian border; current capacity 7,000, expanding to 17,000.
- Petrozavodsk and Sapyorny — near the Finnish border.
- Luga — near Pskov, close to the Estonian border.
- Baltiysk — in Russian-controlled Kaliningrad Oblast.
According to Finnish Army Commander General Pasi Välimäki, the Russian troop grouping near Finland's borders could grow from the current 20,000 to 80,000 personnel.
The total potential for all sites combined, across Northern European and Baltic directions, is up to 115,000 personnel, per the joint investigation.
Ukraine connection
The strategic timing was named explicitly by Major General Bryan Nilssen, the NATO commander for the Baltic states and Poland: "While Russia is occupied with Ukraine, the immediate military threat is low. But this could change quickly if there is a pause in Ukraine."
Norwegian Army Commander Eirik Kristoffersen echoed the concern: "If Russia is now building up forces to the volumes they have announced, and the footage shows that they are doing this, the military threat to Norway will grow."
What satellites show
The investigation relied on commercial satellite imagery to document construction at the Russian sites. Visible elements include new barracks, ammunition warehouses, equipment concentrations, and expanded base perimeters.
The Petsamo expansion alone represents an effective doubling of base capacity, with construction visible at multiple stages. The other sites — Petrozavodsk, Sapyorny, Luga, Baltiysk — show varying stages of expansion, all consistent with personnel-staging infrastructure rather than transit or training facilities.
