Russia is deliberately steering off-course Ukrainian military drones into NATO territory, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said on 22 May, after a series of airspace violations in Baltic states this week.
Three Baltic states and Finland — all frontline NATO members on the EU's eastern flank — have recorded a growing number of cases of Ukrainian drones accidentally violating their airspace, Bloomberg reported. Ukrainian authorities say the drones are targeted at Russia but go off course because of Kremlin electronic warfare capabilities.
What Tsahkna and other ministers said
"Russia is directing these drones into NATO territory," Tsahkna said ahead of a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden.
The minister spoke on the second day of an alliance foreign ministers meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, where colleagues rejected Moscow's claims of Baltic complicity.
Several NATO foreign ministers rejected Moscow's repeated claims that Baltic states had opened their airspace to help Ukraine attack Russia. The claim is "absurd," German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said, adding that "a threat to one member is a threat to all."
"Unfortunately we have to fear that this is propaganda preparation for something insane. Russia always lies, as it did about supposed Ukrainian provocations against Russia before the attack on Ukraine," Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said.
Baltic drone incidents
The Estonia shootdown was the most dramatic moment in a building wave of incursions. On 7 May 2026, two unidentified drones entered Latvian airspace overnight, with one crashing near the Rēzekne oil storage facility. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said the drones came from Russian territory and offered to send expert teams to Baltic states. On 17 May 2026, Latvia warned of an unknown drone over its border districts.
On 19 May 2026, a Romanian F-16 flying NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission shot down a Ukrainian strike drone over Lake Võrtsjärv in southern Estonia—the first NATO drone shootdown in Baltic airspace. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi apologized to Estonia, citing Russian electronic warfare.
"Moscow is doing this deliberately, combining it with intensified propaganda. We apologize to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintentional incidents," Tykhyi wrote on X.
The following day, Lithuania activated NATO Baltic Air Policing and issued an air alert across the Vilnius region after detecting a suspected drone crossing from Belarus; Vilnius airport closed at 10:00. On 21 May 2026, Latvia's National Armed Forces issued an airspace alert over the Ludza, Krāslava, and Rēzekne municipalities—its third alert in three days.
The Latvian defense minister and prime minister both resigned after the drone incidents, bringing down the government. Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas told Euronews that "the possibility of repeated similar scenarios is very high" and that "this is the new reality of what the Baltic states face."
ISW assessment on Russian pretext-building
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on 18 May 2026 that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch drone strikes against Russia directly from Latvian territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 20 May. The SVR said Ukrainian drone operators had "already deployed to Latvian military bases."
The SVR heavily implied that Russia intends to strike the claimed Ukrainian drone launch points and "Latvian decision-making centers," ISW reported. Latvian authorities have repeatedly denied the accusations.
"The Kremlin often uses the SVR to spread extreme and unfounded narratives intended to destabilize other countries and justify potential Russian interference and aggression," ISW assessed. The think tank framed the SVR statement as part of a sustained Russian effort to "set conditions to violate Baltic and Finnish airspace or conduct other military operations against the Baltics."
