Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on 18 May that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch drone strikes against Russia directly from Latvian territory, stating that Ukrainian drone operators have "already deployed to Latvian military bases," according to ISW's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for 19 May 2026.
The SVR went further, heavily implying that Russia intends to strike the claimed Ukrainian drone launch points — specifically identified as Latvian military bases — as well as "Latvian decision-making centers," in response to any strikes it attributes to Ukrainian forces operating from Latvian soil.
Latvian officials have denied the accusations. According to ISW, Latvian authorities have "repeatedly denied Russian accusations that Latvia allowed Ukraine to use their airspace or territory to launch strikes against Russia."
ISW: A pattern of pretext-building
ISW describes the SVR's role as an instrument of narrative warfare. "The Kremlin often uses the SVR to spread extreme and unfounded narratives intended to destabilize other countries and justify potential Russian interference and aggression," the assessment states. The think tank frames the May 18 SVR statement as part of a sustained Russian effort to "set conditions to violate Baltic and Finnish airspace or conduct other military operations against the Baltics."
The drone diversion problem
The SVR's claims emerged alongside a separate, documented incident. On 19 May, a Romanian fighter jet intercepted a Ukrainian drone over Estonian airspace, according to ISW. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated that day: "Russia continues to redirect Ukrainian drones into the Baltics with EW systems," and issued an apology to Estonia and other Baltic states for what he described as unintended incidents caused by Russian electronic warfare interference.
ISW notes it has "previously observed reports of Ukrainian drones crashing in Baltic and Finnish territory, possibly as a result of Russian EW efforts" — a pattern that predates the 19 May incident.
The mechanism
The convergence of the two threads — documented Russian EW diverting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace, and SVR claims that Latvia is actively hosting Ukrainian drone units — fits what ISW identifies as an established Russian information operation framework. By attributing drone incidents in Baltic airspace to deliberate Baltic state complicity rather than Russian electronic interference, Moscow constructs a narrative in which strikes on Latvian infrastructure would be framed as self-defense.
The SVR's 18 May statement, ISW concludes, is "a continuation of Russian officials' efforts to set conditions" for exactly that scenario.
