Russia’s oil revenue got a reprieve from the Iran war in March, climbing to $19 billion from February’s $9.75 billion, the International Energy Agency reported. The Kremlin’s own bankers say the rescue won’t last, ISW assessed Sunday.
The Iran war pushed crude above $100 a barrel. Russian crude and oil-product exports rose by 320,000 barrels per day month-on-month, hitting 7.1 million. Even after that windfall, Russia’s Finance Ministry recorded a 234.3 billion ruble ($3.12 billion) shortfall against its own baseline oil-and-gas revenue projection for March. Every month of 2026 to date has come in below baseline.
Damage from drone strikes on Russian oil tanks looks spectacular, but only delays deliveries by a couple of days.
“US action against Iran has saved both the Russian oil sector and the federal budget from a crisis that was clearly developing in late February,” Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd, told the Associated Press. Damage from drone strikes on Russian oil tanks “looks very spectacular,” he said, but “only delays deliveries by a couple of days.”
But Sberbank’s CFO Taras Skvortsov said on 29 April that the ruble will weaken from around 75 to the dollar to 80–90 in the second half of 2026. The slide will be steepest in the fourth quarter, he said.
What the price spike didn’t fix
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged on 3 May that income and expenditure over the past two months had stayed flat despite the windfall. The federal budget will receive only an extra 200 billion rubles ($2.67 billion) over an unspecified period.
The Kremlin has raised the value-added tax, lowered the key interest rate despite high inflation, and continued draining its sovereign wealth fund.
New Russian tax laws are also pushing businesses and consumers toward cash payments. That expands Russia’s grey economy: prices rise, tax revenue doesn’t. The Kremlin has raised the value-added tax, lowered the key interest rate despite high inflation, and continued draining its sovereign wealth fund’s liquid reserves to plug federal deficits.
In mid-February, Russia raised sign-up bonuses for contract soldiers. It had been cutting them through 2025.
Russia’s own data shows the damage
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 29 April disclosed Russian internal data obtained by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service: loadings at Primorsk had dropped by 13%, at Novorossiysk by 38%, and at Ust-Luga by 43%.
“We believe that such internal Russian data may be underestimated,” Zelenskyy said. “We will continue our operation to reduce Russia’s oil revenues and export volumes.”
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“Russia’s special efforts will be aimed at counteracting our cooperation in the Middle East and the Gulf.”
The same files identified Moscow’s planned response. Russia has designated the disruption of Ukraine’s “Drone Deal” partnerships as a foreign-policy priority—particularly in the Middle East and Persian Gulf—alongside blocking Ukrainian access to foreign investment.
“Russia’s special efforts will be aimed at counteracting our cooperation in the Middle East and the Gulf,” Zelenskyy wrote.
Ukraine has signed 10-year defense agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar through the Drone Deal framework, with a similar agreement expected with the UAE.
“Drone Deals”: Ukraine to export surplus weapons as Zelenskyy unveils new defense trade framework
Reuters calculated in March that 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity was offline, making it the worst supply disruption in modern Russian history. Ukrainian strikes have inflicted at least $7 billion in losses on Russia since the start of 2026, Zelenskyy said Friday.
Tuapse revisited
Ukrainian drones have hit the Tuapse refinery and export terminal four times in just over two weeks. Schools have been shut. Oil washed onto Black Sea beaches. Residents reported dark oily droplets on homes and cars.
About 100 kilometers down the same Black Sea coast sits Cape Idokopas. The compound there—€1.1 billion ($1.3 billion) of helicopter pads, an amphitheater, a vineyard, an oyster farm, and an underground ice rink, exposed by Alexei Navalny’s team in 2021—may now be contaminated by carcinogenic residues from oil products spilled during the strikes, German daily Bild reported Thursday, citing Russian outlets.
The compound is widely understood to be Putin’s.
