The US may have expended up to 61% of its Patriot missile arsenal during 39 days of the war in Iran, with future deliveries expected to take “years” according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
These are grim numbers for Ukraine, whose own Patriot capabilities are running empty. Patriots are Ukraine’s answer to Russia’s ballistic missile strikes — last week, Russia unleashed its largest attack in months, killing at least 19 and injuring over 100 people.
Many other countries rely on US air defense missile systems, including Patriots and Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAADs), and they all want to get their hands on as many as possible. Gulf states have had to defend from Iranian missiles, Taiwan is preparing for an invasion by China, and European states are trying to bolster their own arsenals.
“Diminished inventories will affect the US supply of Patriot, THAADs, and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) to Ukraine and other allies and partners that use them,” CSIS wrote.
Because the Pentagon will need to procure more for itself, “the US will compete with those countries that also want to replenish and expand inventories.”
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy challenged Ukrainian companies to create homegrown anti-ballistic capabilities and do so within the following year, to wean itself off this dependence. He said Kyiv is in talks with other governments to make this happen.
However, that is a lot easier said than done. First of all, Ukraine would need to create the requisite radar systems at a time when it’s struggling with shortages of much less advanced radar. The missiles themselves might cost billions to develop and millions to produce, with no guarantee of their effectiveness against modern ballistic threats.
All while under fire from the sky and extremely tight budgets that could have been cut short if Viktor Orban had won the Hungarian presidency.
45% to 61% spent in 39 days
Eighteen countries use the Patriot. The current missiles that the US and many others use are called the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement or PAC-3 MSE.
According to the CSIS, the US had 2,330 of PAC-3 MSEs before the war in Iran. In the 39 days of the air and missile campaign before the ceasefire, Washington used anywhere from 1,060 to 1,430.
Up to 400 of the older PAC-2 missiles may also still be in the stockpile, according to CSIS, but the US Army no longer procures them and they are made in smaller quantities. They are also less effective against modern ballistic threats.
Each PAC-3 missile costs about $3.9 million. Until recently, the US was only making 550-600 per year, procuring half for itself and selling the rest abroad. Ukraine is a heavy user, with CSIS estimating that it may have received 600 missiles over the course of the war.
The US Department of Defense recently signed a framework with defense contractor Lockheed Martin to raise PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units per year over the next 6-7 years. The agreement has yet to be funded, but should slowly alleviate these issues over the next half-decade. That does nothing for the short-term bottleneck.
The US also emptied out its inventory of THAAD munitions, using 190-290 out of a total inventory of 360. The naval Standard Missile 3 and Standard Missile 6 stockpiles also took a beating, with up to 250 out of 410 and out of 370 out of 1,160 used, respectively.
Resupply might take years
Before more missiles can be produced, the polarized US Congress must pass an appropriation bill — especially challenging this year when a lot of procurement spending is inside a FY 2026 supplemental and a FY 2027 reconciliation bill.
“Then, there is the manufacturing lead time for the first delivery. Historically, that has been about 24 months, but as munitions orders have outstripped production capacity in recent years, lead times have stretched to 36 months or more,” CSIS wrote.
“Production time for the entire lot is another 12 months. That is about 52 months in all—over four years.”
While the rate of both Iranian ballistic launches and the US’s use of its Patriot and THAAD munitions went down over the course of the Iran war, it took less than two months to expend half or more of Washington’s stockpiles of both. Iran is estimated to have significant missile and drone capabilities remaining should the war flare up again.
“A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war,” CSIS wrote. “Prewar inventories were already insufficient; the levels today will constrain US operations should a future conflict arise.”
Whenever Operation Epic Fury ends, “munitions inventories will start to recover, but restoring depleted stockpiles and then achieving the desired inventory levels will take many years.”
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There was a glimmer of hope for Kyiv earlier this month when American defense contractor Raytheon signed a $3.7 billion deal to build “several hundred” older PAC-2 GEM missiles for Ukraine’s Patriot systems. However, these are less effective against modern ballistic systems than more recent missiles.
Worse, it’s unclear when Ukraine will get them. In December, Hartpunkt reported that Germany plans to produce PAC-2 GEM-Ts on its territory with Raytheon, but the delivery date of the first 1,000 to Germany and several other European countries was listed as 2028.
French-Italian alternatives: SAMP/T
Ukraine is looking at other options, such as the French-Italian SAMP/T. Both countries have already supplied some of these systems to Ukraine
In November, Zelenskyy signed a 10-year security pact with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, opening the door for Kyiv to acquire the additional SAMP/Ts. Ukraine was reportedly eyeing the purchase of eight systems.
The cost would likely be in the neighborhood of 3 billion euros. Denmark recently signed a deal to procure four of these systems for 1.47 billion euros, which includes missiles, training and support.
The Aster-30 missiles used by the SAMP/T cost less than PAC-3 MSEs and there are fewer countries that use Aster-30s, both advantages for Kyiv.
However, the Aster-30s production rate is much lower. A French national defense report from December 2024 stated that the normal rate is 80-100, with a plan to ramp up to produce 300 missiles per year by 2028.
Even if all of these missiles went to Ukraine — which they won’t — it’s not nearly enough to deal with Russia’s ballistic missile production rate of over 60 per month, according to Ukraine’s intelligence agencies.
Despite challenge, “no alternative but to try” to build Ukrainian
As such, Ukraine needs other alternatives, including Zelenskyy’s proposal to launch a domestic program.
Some have come out with optimistic statements, including Valery Zarubin, co-founder of Ukraine’s BlueBird Tech, which makes drones, electronic warfare systems, and other products.
“We must develop our own air defense systems and not depend on the major players in this market. I am convinced that we will soon create solutions similar to the Patriot system—but significantly cheaper,” Zarubin said in an emailed statement.
“Ukrainian engineers are currently actively seeking effective and technologically advanced solutions.”
However, creating a viable ballistic interceptor pipeline takes more than can-do engineering. Ukrainian military analysts at Defense Express write that this problem is extremely difficult, can cost billions to develop, and is fraught with pitfalls.
The radar must track the ballistic threat's trajectory with high accuracy and frequency and endure maximum upward visibility to avoid dead zones. The missiles themselves have to be extraordinarily precise, able to maneuver quickly, and tolerate extreme forces to have a hope to intercept ballistic missiles at speeds of kilometers per second.
Both launchers and radar must work together as a single well-oiled machine that can quickly classify threats, predict the trajectory, decide how to engage, and transmit guidance to the missile, until its homing head can acquire the target, at the bare minimum.
“And even having solved these tasks… there is no guarantee that it will work in real combat conditions, and not just on a training ground,” Defense Express wrote.
“But now Ukraine is in such a state that there seems to be no other alternative but to try.”
