Bulgaria’s new Orbán? Ex-president Radev’s anti-Ukraine party wins country’s eighth election in five years

Progressive Bulgaria, the party led by former president Rumen Radev, is on course to win Bulgaria's 19 April parliamentary election, though the final margin and its ability to form a government remain unsettled as ballots are still being counted. Bulgarian public broadcaster B.TV, citing polling by Alpha Research, reported Progressive Bulgaria on 38.1%, with turnout at 51.1%.

With 91.68% of votes processed, the country's Central Election Commission put the party at nearly 44.7%, according to The Guardian. The BBC, citing 87% of the vote counted, reported that Progressive Bulgaria had secured "a majority of at least 135 seats in the 240-seat parliament," a figure that does not align with the Central Election Commission's distribution and which other outlets have not confirmed.

Why this matters

Radev has opposed military aid to Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia. In the summer of 2023, he said that Ukraine was insisting on continuing the war while "the bills for it are being paid by all of Europe," and later described a Ukrainian victory over Russia as impossible. He stepped down as president in January 2026 — after nine years in office — to run for the premiership; Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic, where the parliament and the government it elects hold greater power than the head of state.

Bulgaria is an EU member state, and EU member states shape decisions on support for Ukraine, including sanctions and assistance. The vote comes one week after Hungary's 12 April election ended the 16-year rule of another EU opponent of Ukraine, Viktor Orbán.

In early April, Politico reported that Bulgaria had asked the European Union for help countering Russian interference ahead of the parliamentary election.

The result

According to the Central Election Commission data cited by The Guardian, Progressive Bulgaria stood at nearly 44.7% with 91.68% of ballots counted. Former prime minister Boyko Borisov's centrist-populist GERB-SDS coalition — long Bulgaria's dominant political force — was in second place on close to 13.4%, while the pro-European coalition We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria had dropped to third with 13.2%. Five political forces are currently clearing the 4% threshold, among them the far-right, pro-Russian Revival party.

Alpha Research's figures for B.TV diverged somewhat, placing Progressive Bulgaria on 38.1%, GERB on 15.9%, We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria on 14.1%, and DPS–New Beginning on 7.9%.

Under either set of figures, Progressive Bulgaria fell short of a majority in the 240-seat National Assembly and will need coalition partners. Radev has not announced whom he will negotiate with.

What Radev said

Speaking to reporters outside his party's Sofia office on 19 April, Radev declared victory. "PB has achieved an indisputable victory — a victory of hope over distrust, a victory of freedom over fear," he said, according to The Guardian. He added that Bulgaria "will do everything it can to continue on its European path," before adding: "But believe me, a strong Bulgaria and a strong Europe need critical thinking and pragmatism. Europe has become a victim of its own ambitions to be a moral leader in the world with new rules."

After casting his ballot in Sofia on 19 April, Radev called for "a democratic, modern, European Bulgaria" and said he hoped for "practical relations with Russia, based on mutual respect and equal treatment."

In his victory speech, as reported by the BBC, he framed the result as a popular rebuke of the political establishment. "People rejected the self-satisfaction and arrogance of old parties and did not fall prey to lies and manipulation. I thank them for their trust," he said. He promised to build "a strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe," adding: "What Europe needs right now is critical thinking, pragmatic actions and good results, especially to build a new security architecture and … recover its industrial power and competitiveness. That will be the main contribution of Bulgaria to its European mission."

Radev told reporters on election night that Progressive Bulgaria is open to various configurations in order to form a stable cabinet. "We will do everything possible so that we do not have to go to elections again. This is catastrophic for Bulgaria. It means moving from crisis to crisis," he said.

What GERB said

Borisov, the GERB leader and former prime minister, congratulated the winner while signalling that the arithmetic, not the result, would determine the next government. "Elections decide who will be first, but the negotiations will decide who will govern. GERB can be both in government and in opposition. And in politics, as in life, patience is needed," he said.

Radev's record on Russia and Ukraine

Radev, 62, a former MiG-29 pilot and commander-in-chief of the Bulgarian Air Force, served as president from 2017 until January 2026, when he resigned to lead the new left-leaning grouping Progressive Bulgaria. He is described by the BBC as "a pragmatic, somewhat pro-Russian leader, who has criticised EU sanctions, and called for constructive dialogue with the Kremlin."

Since 2022, he has repeatedly opposed the sale of Bulgaria's Soviet-era weapons stockpiles to Ukraine, arguing that such transfers prolong a war Ukraine cannot win — an argument the BBC notes is similar to the one made by outgoing Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán. Analysts in Sofia cited by the BBC suggest that as head of government Radev is unlikely to replicate Orbán's role as a spoiler of EU backing for Kyiv. Instead, they expect him to take what the BBC describes as a pragmatic approach: allowing Bulgarian arms exports via third countries while ending direct transfers of Soviet-era military equipment. The BBC compares his likely posture to that of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico — critical of EU support for Ukraine, but not vetoing the manufacture of arms by private companies for Ukraine.

Bulgaria has been an important supplier of ammunition and explosives to Ukraine via third countries, particularly neighbouring Romania, and the war has revived an arms industry that had struggled since the end of the Soviet era. The VMZ plant in Sopot, two hours east of Sofia, produces explosives and NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells. In October 2025, Germany's Rheinmetall announced a €1 billion joint venture with VMZ to produce up to 100,000 155mm shells a year, with a separate gunpowder plant also to be built at Sopot; Rheinmetall will hold a 51% stake. Radev took credit for inviting Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger to Bulgaria in March 2025. On a visit to Rheinmetall's headquarters in Unterlüss, Germany, in August 2025, he said: "Bulgaria is becoming part of the European defence ecosystem."

Why the vote was held

This was Bulgaria's eighth parliamentary election in five years, and the latest snap poll in a prolonged political crisis that has produced a series of short-lived governments. The vote was called after mass protests swept the country in December 2025 — the largest demonstrations in a decade, directed against corruption, demanding the restoration of the rule of law, and rejecting a draft budget that envisaged tax increases. The protests brought down the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov of GERB. According to the BBC, the election was called after the previous cabinet tried to push through what it describes as "a controversial budget" in December, and Radev, as president at the time, supported the protests.

What comes next

The result gives Progressive Bulgaria a mandate to open coalition talks. The BBC reports that the party will need the support of the second-placed We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria to pass key legislation ending political pressure on the judiciary, which requires a two-thirds majority. Radev said on Sunday evening that he is looking for coalition partners.