Ukraine’s Q1 business confidence survey captured the most optimistic moment since Russia’s full-scale invasion. It was conducted in January and February 2026—before the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and sent Urals crude soaring from $57 to $116 per barrel, up 95% from a year ago and briefly hitting a 13-year high of $124.85 in early April.
Much of what the survey captures hasn’t been overtaken by the oil price shock.
Much of what the survey captured—the war as production ceiling, the labor shortage, the currency anxiety—hasn’t been overtaken by the oil price shock. It still matters. It has gotten worse.
High confidence
With Urals at $116 per barrel, Russia collects at least $150 million a day in additional revenue—partially reversing months of sanctions pressure that had kept Urals below $60.
The Business Expectations Index—a composite score measuring whether more executives expect their companies to improve than deteriorate over the next 12 months—reached 105.8%, up from 102.1% in Q4 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) survey shows. A reading above 100 means optimists outnumber pessimists. It was the highest reading since the full-scale invasion began.
The same executives expected the hryvnia to weaken even then.
A weaker hryvnia drives up import and energy costs.
The survey placed the average 12-month dollar forecast at 45.00 hryvnia per dollar—up from 44.27 the previous quarter—with a growing share predicting the rate will reach 45.01–46.50 hryvnia.
For the first time, businesses were asked to forecast the hryvnia-euro rate: the average came in at 54.00 hryvnia per euro. The euro traded at 51.47 hryvnia and the dollar at 43.67 hryvnia on 16 April. Businesses were already pricing in depreciation before the oil shock. A weaker hryvnia drives up import and energy costs—pressures that have since intensified.
The most telling detail in the survey: more respondents anticipated rising energy prices than any other single threat. That was in February. Urals crossed $90 for the first time in years on 6 March.
What the numbers mean—and what they don’t
War and its consequences remained the dominant constraint on production, the NBU found: 82.7% of respondents named it as the primary driver of inflation—unchanged from Q4 2025. The shortage of qualified workers ranked second, as mobilization and emigration continue to shrink Ukraine’s labor pool.
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Inflation expectations held steady at 11.1% over the next 12 months—already above the 8% recorded in December 2025, suggesting businesses expected prices to accelerate even before the oil spike pushed energy costs higher.
The survey measures the gap between companies planning to raise spending and those planning to cut it.
On investment, the survey measures the gap between companies planning to raise spending and those planning to cut it. A net balance of 12.8% for machinery and equipment means 12.8 percentage points more respondents planned to raise investment than reduce it, up from 7.0% in Q4 2025. Construction crossed into positive territory for the first time in four surveys: a balance of 1.6%, against −2.9% the quarter before.
Of companies that attract foreign capital, 20.9% planned to draw in new investment over the next year. Ukrainian businesses have been borrowing at above-market rates to fund this kind of investment since 2025—a sign they expect returns to justify the cost even in wartime.
Agriculture projects the steepest further cuts of any sector.
Workforce expectations also “improved”—from −3.8% to −1.8%—but the minus sign remains. More companies still plan to cut staff than to grow it. The narrowing likely reflects that the deepest reductions have already been made, not that hiring is on the horizon. Agriculture projects the steepest further cuts of any sector.
The NBU surveyed 664 companies across 21 regions between 29 January and 27 February 2026. Occupied territories—Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts—were excluded.
