Three years. That is how long most NATO military leaders think Alliance has before Russia tests Article 5

By 2029, Russia may attack NATO. The Alliance’s military leaders agree on that.
The UK Commando Force works with the German Submarine Service during Exercise Cold Response 2026. Source: UK MOD
The UK Commando Force works with the German Submarine Service during Exercise Cold Response 2026. Source: UK MOD
Three years. That is how long most NATO military leaders think Alliance has before Russia tests Article 5

Most military leaders of NATO countries do not rule out the possibility that Russia could attempt to attack Alliance territory by 2029, says Karel Řehka, chief of the Czech General Staff, as per UkrInform. 

US intelligence say that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to seize all of Ukraine and ultimately restore control over parts of Europe that once belonged to the Soviet Union. Among them are three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Albania, and Slovakia. 

“Most of us in defense leadership share a similar view,” the general noted in response to a question about whether he agrees with the assessment that an attack could happen within the next three years.

NATO has a wide range of responses to provocations

Řehka emphasizes that he is not claiming war is inevitable but warned that to prevent it, NATO must remain strong and maintain credible deterrence, either within the Alliance or potentially with partners outside it.

“For reliable deterrence, you need real defensive capabilities and power, as well as the will to use them. The adversary must understand that you possess both,” he explains.

He also noted that Russia is aware NATO has a broad spectrum of potential responses to various provocations, informational, diplomatic, and military.

“NATO collective defense will be activated if threatened”

Řehka expresses confidence that if Russia did attempt a military attack on a NATO country, the Alliance would respond decisively.

“I fully believe NATO will activate collective defense if necessary. There is no alternative: if it did not, that would be the end of NATO. I think everyone understands that such a situation would be a tragedy for all of us. And that is precisely what Russia wants,” the military leader says.

For context, last year Karsten Bröger, General Inspector of the German Bundeswehr, also stated that NATO should prepare for a possible Russian attack over the next four years, citing analysts’ assessments that Russia could be capable of striking the Baltic states by 2029.

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