The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UKAB), Ukraine’s main farm industry association, warned the government on 18 March that a 15–20% drop in grain and oilseed yields is now the likely outcome of the spring sowing season—unless Kyiv intervenes within weeks.
Ukraine is the world’s fourth-largest corn exporter and sixth-largest wheat exporter; a contraction at that scale would cost $4–5 billion in export revenues and push up food prices in the dozens of countries that depend on Ukrainian supplies.
The Middle East war drove up global natural gas prices, the feedstock for all synthetic nitrogen fertilizer.
Russian missile strikes have cut domestic ammonium nitrate output in half—from 2 million tonnes to 1 million tonnes this season—as attacks on energy infrastructure forced key plants to curtail operations. By early March, farmers were already 190,000 tonnes short of the ammonium nitrate they need for spring sowing.
The Middle East war then drove up global natural gas prices, the feedstock for all synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, making imports sharply more expensive. According to UKAB, ammonium nitrate now costs 37% more year on year, urea is up 43%, and CAS-32 liquid nitrogen fertilizer is up by more than a half.
Diesel has climbed over 22% in the past month. Ekonomichna Pravda reported that, together, these pressures have made this spring’s sowing roughly 10% more expensive than last year.
Three asks, shrinking window
In its 18 March petition to Vice Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba and Parliament’s agricultural committees, UKAB requested three emergency measures.
First, zero import tariffs on nitrogen fertilizers through end-2026—a step it says could cut prices by $25–35 per tonne and help farmers rebuild reserves.
Second, reduced excise rates on diesel used by farm machinery that operates in fields rather than on public roads.
Third, authorization for commercial vessels to bring calcium ammonium nitrate directly into Ukrainian ports, a category currently barred from maritime import.
A stable sowing season with adequate fertilizer could lift yields 5–7% and generate $1.5–2 billion in additional export revenue.
A 20% harvest shortfall would, according to UKAB, strip $4–5 billion from annual export earnings, cut domestic VAT revenues by 15–18 billion hryvnias ($357–429 million), and cost the state budget 35–45 billion hryvnias ($833 million–$1 billion) within a single year.
A stable sowing season with adequate fertilizer could lift yields 5–7% and generate $1.5–2 billion in additional export revenue, the group estimates.
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Budapest’s mirror request
Two days before UKAB filed its petition, Hungary’s agriculture minister István Nagy sent Brussels a formal letter demanding that all EU punitive duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers be zeroed out—citing the same Middle East supply disruption as justification.
The EU introduced those levies in July 2025 specifically to reduce revenues Moscow channels into its military budget. Nagy’s letter arrived 27 days before Hungary’s 12 April parliamentary election.
The EU introduced fertilizer tariffs to cut Russian war revenues. Budapest wants them suspended. The election is in 27 days.
Ukraine’s agricultural sector contracted 5% in 2025. The two requests, filed 48 hours apart and citing the same crisis, point in opposite directions: one asks Kyiv to let Ukraine import more fertilizer; the other asks Brussels to let Russia and Belarus earn more by exporting it.
