European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius said on 6 March that the pace of missile consumption in the Middle East has laid bare a structural gap in Western production capacity — one that directly affects Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian strikes.
Speaking from Warsaw, where he began a tour of seven European capitals dedicated to the issue of missile manufacturing, Kubilius said the numbers were stark: more than 800 US-made interceptor missiles were used over just three days in the Middle East to counter Iranian missiles and drones. Ukraine, by comparison, used roughly 700 Patriot interceptors over an entire four-month winter season, he said, as reported by Euronews.
"The situation is really critical," Kubilius said. "We need to develop missile production in a very urgent and very rapid way."
The scale of consumption in both theatres collides directly with industrial reality. Lockheed Martin, the sole manufacturer of PAC-3 missiles — the most capable variant of the Patriot interceptor — produced approximately 600 units in 2025. Ukraine's winter demand alone exceeded that figure. The Middle East operations consumed a comparable number in under 72 hours.
Ukraine's exposure to ballistic missile attacks has grown significantly. According to Kubilius, Ukraine faced nearly 2,000 missile attacks in 2025, including approximately 900 ballistic missiles launched by Russia. Ballistic missiles are substantially harder to intercept than cruise missiles, requiring advanced systems such as the Patriot, and often multiple interceptors per incoming round.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at a briefing on 5 March, put the Middle East figure in direct context. "More than 800 (US missiles) have been used over the past three days alone," he said. "Ukraine has never had this many missiles to repel attacks." Zelenskyy regularly appeals to Western allies to supply PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles, noting that Ukraine typically deploys them within days of receipt.
Kubilius framed the Middle East operations not merely as a drain on existing stockpiles, but as a demonstration of European strategic dependence. "Missiles, drones and extended-range 155mm ammunition are Ukraine's key priorities," he said, adding that missiles had become "the most challenging" category for allies to provide. "Americans will not be able to provide enough of those missiles for the Gulf countries, for their own army, and also for Ukraine," he said.
Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, speaking alongside Kubilius in Warsaw, said the situation underscored the need for a more autonomous European defence industry. "Independence of armaments production in Europe and secure supply chains are becoming even more important," he said. Warsaw has signed major contracts for American military equipment and is watching whether conflicts elsewhere could slow deliveries. "If this conflict continues, then unfortunately, such a risk exists," Kosiniak-Kamysz said.
EU officials are working to address the funding gap through two financial mechanisms. The first is a €90 billion loan the EU intends to provide Ukraine, two-thirds of which is earmarked for military spending, with requirements prioritising purchases from Ukrainian and European manufacturers. That loan, which Ukraine needs to begin receiving from April, is currently blocked by Hungary over a separate energy dispute with Kyiv. The second instrument is a €150 billion EU defence loan scheme that 19 member states, including Poland, have requested access to.
Kubilius's "Missile Tour" will take him from Warsaw to Italy, Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Finland.
The broader concern among EU officials predates the current Middle East escalation. Chief EU diplomat Kaja Kallas has previously noted that weapons and air defence systems needed in Ukraine were being redirected to the Middle East — a diversion she described as a cause for concern. Zelenskyy, however, said as of Thursday that the Middle East situation had not yet affected American arms deliveries to Ukraine under the PURL initiative, particularly air defence missiles.
US President Donald Trump, for his part, criticised the Biden administration this week for supplying munitions to Ukraine free of charge — weapons he said could instead have been sold to Middle Eastern countries.
