Lithuanian intelligence has warned that Russia could be ready to attack NATO in six years if Western sanctions are lifted, citing Moscow’s expansion of military units along NATO borders, Reuters reports.
The report said Russia is developing units at the NATO frontier and training them in battlefield conditions in Ukraine.
Lithuania warned that if sanctions are removed – for example through diplomatic negotiations or economic agreements – Moscow could field a 30–50 percent larger army than it had before the war, with modern equipment and fully restored stockpiles of weapons and ammunition within six years.
These expanded forces could later serve as hubs for a potential conflict with NATO once the war in Ukraine ends, giving Moscow a significant operational advantage.
The report noted that China has helped strengthen Russia’s military industry, reducing Moscow’s reliance on Western technology. Surplus weapons produced during the war could have broader consequences for global security after the conflict.
The assessment said Russia’s ultimate aims remain projecting power in Europe and asserting control over Ukraine.
Lithuania is a frontline NATO state, bordering both Russia and Belarus, and a strong supporter of Ukraine. The assessment underscores that Moscow could leverage expanded forces and any easing of sanctions to pose a long-term threat to European security.
