70% of Ukrainians do not believe that peace talks will lead to lasting peace, according to Kyiv-based polling service

About seven in ten Ukrainians do not believe the ongoing trilateral negotiations with Russia and the United States will produce a lasting peace, according to a new KIIS survey released on 2 March. Only 25% think the talks could succeed.

The February 12–24 poll of 2,004 adults was conducted during and after the third round of US-brokered talks in Geneva—a round that produced no breakthrough on the central dispute: Donbas.

The detail that changes everything

KIIS asked respondents about a specific deal: withdraw Ukrainian troops from Donbas in exchange for US and European security guarantees. The question did not ask respondents to officially recognize Russian sovereignty over the territories or permanently renounce them—just accept a troop withdrawal. Even that softer framing drew mostly rejections: 57% categorically opposed. Thirty-six percent accepted, mostly reluctantly.

Then KIIS added detail. When told the US would not station troops in Ukraine, would not close the skies, and would not provide weapons free of charge, support dropped to 25%. Rejection jumped to 68%.

Ukrainians aren't reflexively saying no. They're reading the fine print.

Opposition to concessions is growing, not shrinking

Three months of US-brokered talks and Russia's heaviest bombing campaign of the war have not moved Ukrainian opinion toward compromise. The opposite is happening.

In late January, 52% rejected transferring Donbas for guarantees; 40% accepted. By mid-February, rejection had climbed to 57% and acceptance fallen to 36%. The gap between opponents and supporters widened from +12 in late January to +21 in mid-February.

The January survey found majorities opposed in every region of the country, including the predominantly Russian-speaking east. Kyiv residents were the most opposed at 59%.

Russia hammered Ukraine's power grid throughout the survey period—striking thermal plants across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa in –20°C cold. Yet Moscow's brutality didn't shift Ukrainian opinion toward concessions. Sixty-five percent said they were ready to endure the war as long as it takes, a number that hasn't budged since autumn 2025.

"Ukrainians continue to be critical of the current peace negotiations," said KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi. "Those who agree set tough requirements for security guarantees."

The US has signaled readiness to submit legally binding guarantees to Congress—a potentially historic step. But as the polling makes plain, the label matters less than the substance. Ukrainians gave up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal for security assurances once before. Russia invaded anyway.