126 km² in February, 245 in January, some 630 last November — Russia’s gains drop while its attacks hold steady, Deep State says

Assault operations barely slowed, dropping just 4% compared to January, while the Pokrovsk sector absorbed 31% of all attacks.
126 km² 245 some 630 last — russia's gains drop while its attacks hold steady deep state says · post deepstate monthly territorial advances (sq km) number assault actions 2024–february
DeepState infographic showing monthly territorial advances (sq km) and the number of assault actions, June 2024–February 2026. Source: DeepState
126 km² in February, 245 in January, some 630 last November — Russia’s gains drop while its attacks hold steady, Deep State says

Russia's territorial gains halved for the second consecutive month while assault intensity barely changed, Ukrainian frontline monitoring project Deep State reported on 1 March.

As Russia continues ground attacks across most fo the front, the February data deepens a pattern of accelerating diminishing returns from Moscow's grinding offensive. The continued halving of gains against near-flat assault tempo adds to mounting evidence that Russia's infantry-first offensive model is hitting structural limits, as Moscow's recruitment pipeline plateaus and Ukraine's drone-dominated battlefield extracts a rising cost per kilometer.

Gains halve again as attacks hold steady

Deep State says Russian forces occupied 126 km² in February — half of the 245 km² recorded in January and the smallest figure since July 2024. The project recorded just a 4% drop in reported assault operations compared to January, closely mirroring the January pattern when gains also halved against near-constant attack tempo.

"The only thing is that assault operations became smaller in the number of participants, so it is important to wait for the announcement of the number of verified eliminations from Ukraine's Defense Ministry," Deep State wrote.

Pokrovsk and Huliaipole absorb half of all assaults

The sector-by-sector breakdown remained virtually identical to January. The Pokrovsk sector drew 31% of all Russian assault operations, followed by Huliaipole at 21%, Kostiantynivka at 13%, and Lyman at 7%. Deep State described the distribution as stable.

The Pokrovsk sector accounted for 32% of all territorial advances — roughly matching its share of attacks. But the Sloviansk and Kramatorsk sectors together produced 39% of all Russian advances despite absorbing just 9% of assaults. Kostiantynivka accounted for 21% of advances, and Sumy Oblast for 7%.

Russian gains in Ukraine in 2025. Map: ISW

The disparity between the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk front and other sectors echoes a pattern Deep State flagged in January, when the Sloviansk direction yielded nearly 20% of territorial losses from just 3% of attacks — a record ratio for the reporting period.

The February and January figures suggest Moscow's advance has decelerated sharply from its late-2025 peak, when monthly gains exceeded 620 km², according to the ISW's estimations. Russia occupied 4,336 km² of Ukrainian territory across all of 2025 — roughly 0.72% of the country — but the downward trajectory in early 2026 points to a front where offensive effort increasingly fails to translate into ground.

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