Russia’s election demand for Ukraine comes with a catch — only a pro-Kremlin result will do, ISW says

Moscow continues pushing for elections in Ukraine as a tool to delegitimize the current government and gain political control over Kyiv, while rejecting any meaningful Western security guarantees for post-war Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, called on the US to provide security guarantees before any war termination agreement. ISW warned that conceding territory before such guarantees are locked in would leave Ukraine exposed to renewed Russian aggression.

Kremlin uses election rhetoric to undermine Zelenskyy's legitimacy, sets conditions to reject any unfavorable election result

According to ISW, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin repeated the debunked claim that Zelenskyy is "illegitimate" in a 15 February interview with Kremlin newswire TASS. Galuzin stated that Putin's March 2025 proposal for the UN to create a temporary external administration in Ukraine remains on the table. Such UN governance, Galuzin claimed, would enable "democratic" elections and produce a government with which Russia could sign a peace treaty.

ISW assessed that this amounts to "a rejection of Ukraine's sovereignty and legitimacy." UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and White House National Security Council Spokesperson James Hewitt rejected such proposals when Putin first floated them in March 2025. 

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The Kremlin's push for UN election oversight is effectively an attempt to give Russia, a permanent UN Security Council member, veto power over any resolution that does not produce a pro-Kremlin political arrangement in Kyiv.

Galuzin also claimed that Ukraine would try to block "Ukrainian citizens" living in Russia from voting. The Kremlin is laying the groundwork to declare any election that does not "sufficiently" let people under Russian control vote as not free and fair. ISW noted that it is far from clear how Russia would determine who is Ukrainian for voting purposes, given its intensive forced passportization campaign that has coerced Ukrainians in occupied territories to renounce Ukrainian citizenship.

The Kremlin likely aims to use these "Ukrainians" voting in Russia to enable massive election interference, ISW assessed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated that any postwar Ukraine must be "friendly" and "benevolent" to Russia, explicitly rejecting any government that is not pro-Kremlin.

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Security guarantees must come before concessions, Zelenskyy says

Zelenskyy said on 14 February spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He stated the US proposed 15-year postwar security guarantees, but called for at least 20 years or longer, and said guarantees must come before any war termination deal.

ISW warned that concessions before a US-Ukrainian security deal could lock Ukraine into withdrawals while the Kremlin rejects ceasefire and guarantee proposals, leaving Kyiv exposed with no assured partner backing.

The think tank noted that Russia’s aims extend beyond Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and a “buffer zone” in occupied parts of Kharkiv Oblast, while Russian forces are attacking across the full frontline, preparing for a possible summer 2026 offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Kremlin remains committed to replacing the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government that would grant Russia political control over Ukraine even without full territorial occupation, ISW assessed. Consistent Kremlin rhetoric aimed at domestic Russian audiences shows Moscow is not preparing its society to abandon these original war aims.