Ukraine's electricity grid faces potential complete failure in eastern oblasts as Russia intensifies attacks on power infrastructure, The Washington Post reports citing officials and analysts familiar with the situation.
"We are, if not at the brink" of a complete blackout in the east "then very close to it," a senior European diplomat told the newspaper.
The assault threatens to sever transmission lines connecting western Ukraine — where most electricity is currently generated — to the eastern part of the country, effectively splitting the nation's power grid in two.
Russia launched close to 5,000 drones and missiles in November alone, compared to 2,000 per month at the year's start, according to Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk. The campaign, which began in October, has triggered major power shortages as winter temperatures drop.
In Kyiv, residents now endure up to 16 hours daily without electricity. Businesses operate primarily on generators.
"They have these strategic attacks," Kolisnyk said. "For example, in the end of November we had an attack on electricity generation in western part of Ukraine and it was massive. It was split between different type of facilities, substations, power generation — there were a number of aims."
The frequency of strikes has increased, leaving less time for repairs. Power workers reduced outages in Kyiv to 2.5 hours per day in early December, but a major attack overnight on 5 December critically damaged the grid again.
"We're reacting as fast as we can but it's getting more and more difficult," said Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company. "We've lost a significant proportion of our capacity. A key focus now is to find replacement equipment in different parts of Europe, which we can deliver to Ukraine quickly. The most important parts are transformers and gas compressors."
Beyond severing the east-west connection, Russia is "pursuing another strategy to create [energy] islands," the European diplomat said, isolating individual regions from both electricity generation and transmission systems.
From October to December, Russia "launched eight massive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure," said Valerii Osadchuk, head of communications at Ukraine's electricity grid operator Ukrenergo. Attacks "on individual energy facilities or specific regions have been taking place almost every day."
Kyiv has proposed an energy ceasefire under which Russia would halt attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure while Ukraine would stop long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities. On Thursday and Friday, Ukrainian security services said drones attacked and shut down a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea.
Moscow rejected the proposal last week. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is working toward "peace, not a ceasefire."
"For weeks now, I've been publicly calling to offer Russians a negotiated energy truce," said Ukrainian lawmaker Victoria Gryb, who serves on parliament's energy committee. "Such a step, if all necessary diplomatic efforts are urgently and persistently made, would make winter perspectives a bit less pessimistic. It could also represent a vital first step toward genuine peace."
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists on 11 December he was "ready" for an energy ceasefire, but added that "the United States believes we are close to an agreement," which must be implemented before laying groundwork for a full ceasefire.
Despite the escalating crisis, the grid continues to function. One person familiar with the situation noted that in 2022, major repairs during a total blackout took only two days. If Ukraine obtains necessary supplies and Russia doesn't repeatedly bomb the same locations, repairs could happen quickly and it won't be "the end of the world," the person said.
"The situation could be much worse if not for the engineering efforts of Ukrenergo," said Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI in Kyiv. Still, power supply "will be unstable throughout the winter and even spring."
Restrictions on electricity now apply throughout the country, with front-line regions suffering most. "All day long the Russians are trying to strike energy facilities there, from the small to the big," Kolisnyk said.
Some residents say they have adapted to winters without stable power. Tetiana Palienko, 43, a beautician living with her three children, noted that "connectivity is better now — telephone connections and the internet work, everything functions." Last week she threw a St. Nicholas Day party at her daughter's school without electricity.
"There was no electricity, so everyone turned on flashlights," she said. "Everything started on time — no one waited for the power to come back on."
But Karolina Machula, 19, an administrator at a boxing club, describes climbing 15 flights of stairs when elevators fail. "It's psychologically damaging: You laugh in order not to cry," she said. "Our fridge short-circuited because it's constantly being turned on and off. And when it's turned off for a long time, all your produce spoils — you can't buy anything."
"I don't want to leave the country at all. Never in my life. But Ukrainians are just surviving this year," Machula added.
