The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia is not close to victory in Ukraine, with its advance moving slower than virtually every major military campaign over the past century.
After nearly four years of full-scale war, Russia remains far from controlling Donetsk province—a target since its first covert invasion in 2014. Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that in a comparable timeframe during World War II, the Soviet Union repelled a German invasion and captured Berlin.
"It's a stunning lack of speed," Jones said. "I just don't see evidence right now on the battlefield of a strategic change in the war."
The assessment contrasts with narratives pushed by Moscow and some Western officials. President Trump recently told Politico that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to accept a US-backed peace agreement "because he's losing." Vice President JD Vance wrote last month: "There is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand."
Front-line reality differs from political rhetoric
Senior Western military officials and Ukrainian front-line officers say Russia's military is not on the verge of a breakthrough. Radmila Shekerinska, deputy secretary-general of NATO, told reporters in Washington on Wednesday: "What we see at the battlefield is of course still advances, but marginal advances."
Ukrainian Army Major Oleh Hlushko, a battalion commander in the Separate Presidential Brigade, described repelling a Russian assault this week. "Occasionally, they manage to raise their flags and claim that a position has been taken, but we then conduct clearing operations, remove the symbols, and the position remains under our control," he said.
Hlushko said his men destroyed several Russian military vehicles during Wednesday's attack as Russian forces tried to exploit snowy weather. "We are usually able to detect and eliminate the small infantry groups that Russia uses in assaults, but they sometimes sneak through because of the sheer weight of numbers," he explained.
A Ukrainian lieutenant colonel commanding a battalion in the 56th Brigade said Russia recently rotated in new forces attempting to break through near Chasiv Yar, which his unit has defended for two years. Despite intensified drone strikes, missile attacks, and infantry assaults, "they have failed to achieve that, and we do not intend to let them succeed," the officer said.
Russia claims gains Ukraine disputes
Russia this month claimed its first major conquest in over two years—the city of Pokrovsk, once home to around 60,000 people. Ukrainian military commanders say fighting continues in northern areas of the city.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has twice in the past month worn fatigues for meetings with military commanders to announce rapid advances, encirclements of thousands of Ukrainian troops, and city captures that Ukrainian officials and analysts say exceed his military's actual achievements.
Ukraine's top military commander, General Oleksandr Syrskiy, wrote on social media Tuesday: "The volume of Russian lies far exceeds the actual pace of Russian troops' advance. The enemy is using disinformation and fake maps in a hybrid war against Ukraine, influencing both foreign audiences and our society and army."
On 9 December, Syrskiy described Russia's advance rate and called the result "worthless."
Attrition warfare presents challenges
Analysts note the slow Russian advance does not tell the full story, as Moscow is waging attritional warfare aimed at depleting Ukraine's manpower and military equipment. Ukraine faces severe challenges in recruiting sufficient personnel, leaving front-line units short on infantry.
Russia has made advances in drone warfare that some analysts say has neutralized what was once a Ukrainian advantage. Kyiv's military position has been gradually eroding, though its forces continue inflicting heavy casualties—meaning small Russian gains come at significant cost.
"Ukraine is, of course, facing a very difficult winter," Shekerinska said. "Numbers matter in war. So it is difficult actually to reconstitute and constantly move more or fresh troops on the battlefield. But Ukraine's bravery has been compensating for these deficiencies."
Ukraine has a much smaller population than Russia and is experiencing a fresh outflow of young men after easing travel restrictions in August. Ukrainian manpower is one resource the West cannot supply.
"Clearly, what Ukrainian forces have done is that they have bought a lot of time," said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Finland's Black Bird Group who uses publicly available information to assess the battlefield. "But how much it has cost them, that's a very crucial question."
Western support remains critical
Western military officials say Ukraine needs more air-defense systems to counter Russia's relentless drone and missile attacks, plus artillery to compensate for winter weather that hampers explosive drone use. More long-range strike missiles targeting Russian territory would also help, military analysts say.
The West has the means to influence the battlefield, according to the report. Russia is using its larger military to probe for weak spots where it can advance, with Ukraine redeploying units to stem breakthroughs.
Victory remains distant for Russia, whose original goal in February 2022 was to seize Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government. Jones compared Russia's rate of advance unfavorably to the Battle of the Somme in World War I.
