A November wargame in Romania's Carpathian mountains offered a preview of NATO's future: European soldiers defending the continent largely without the United States, Bloomberg reports.
In Cincu, about 260 kilometers north of Bucharest, a full-brigade deployment under French command conducted live-fire exercises while Washington signals its intent to reduce military presence in Europe. The timing carries weight as White House envoy Steve Witkoff travels to Moscow and the Trump administration threatens to cut remaining military support for Ukraine.
Romanian and European officials at the exercise voiced concerns about response times, according to Bloomberg. Due to transport infrastructure constraints, NATO reinforcements could take several weeks to reach the front, leaving Romania's land forces to repel an assault largely alone.
"This is the first time in the last 70 years that the Europeans no longer perceive American security guarantees as guarantees," said Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea program at the Middle East Institute.
The US announced in late October that troops stationed in Romania would be reduced from 1,700 to approximately 1,000, with withdrawals also planned from Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary. Romanian officials publicly expressed understanding but privately said they weren't happy with the decision, Bloomberg reports.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned on 25 November that Berlin's intelligence indicates Russia could be capable of attacking a NATO member within four years.
"Russia is really trying to test how far they can go," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told Bloomberg. "What they also try to achieve right now is to sow fear within our societies."
US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker praised European capabilities after observing the Transylvania exercise: "This is a perfect example of the Europeans handling things on their own."
However, the wargame focused on land combat, where NATO's European members are self-sufficient. The US still provided airspace control and logistical support — areas where European forces remain dependent on American capabilities, including air and missile defense, long-range precision strikes, and intelligence.
General Maxime Do Tran, commander of a French armored brigade deployed to Romania, complained about delays in the 10-day journey to the country. The voyage via Greece and Bulgaria required five planes, 11 trains, and around 15 convoys. Three days could have been saved without border stops, he said.
Romania is the second-largest recipient of the EU's €150 billion defense loan fund called Security Action for Europe (SAFE), securing €16 billion. German defense company Rheinmetall AG is leading multibillion-euro EU-backed investments to build ammunition production facilities in Romania and Bulgaria.
Romanian President Nicusor Dan said talks are ongoing with unnamed allies about replacing US troops and will travel to France to discuss defense cooperation, including a possible French military presence in Romania.
One week after the exercise, at the Mihail Kogalniceanu airbase, Romanian and American officials celebrated Thanksgiving together. The Romanian Defense Minister had to leave early — another drone had breached the country's airspace, Bloomberg reports.
French four-star General Philippe de Montenon said he's confident Europe could prevail without US support.
"The direction of history is a progressive disengagement of the United States from the European continent," he said.
