Russia masses 90,000 troops near Lyman as both sides claim advances in contested sector

Russian offensive operations near Lyman have slowed since summer 2025, but drone and aerial strikes remain intense, a Ukrainian brigade non-commissioned officer reported.
lyman direction
Assessed control of terrain in the Lyman direction on 2 October 2025. Credit: ISW
Russia masses 90,000 troops near Lyman as both sides claim advances in contested sector

Ukrainian forces advanced in northeastern Yampil, southeast of Lyman, according to geolocated footage published on 1 October.

Russian forces simultaneously pushed into northeastern Yampil and central Shandryholove northwest of Lyman, footage from 30 September indicates.

The contested Lyman direction has become a focal point of Russian military concentration. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces have massed 80,000 to 90,000 personnel, 240 to 320 tanks, approximately 600 armored vehicles, 350 to 360 tube artillery systems, and up to 220 multiple launch rocket systems in the area.

"This number of forces is roughly equivalent to the number of Russian forces concentrated in the Pokrovsk direction," Mashovets said.

Russian forces conducted attacks on 1 and 2 October northwest of Lyman near Shandryholove, Karpivka, Novoselivka, and Korovii Yar, as well as north of the city toward Stavky and Novyi Myr. Additional strikes targeted areas northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi and Myrne, east near Zarichne and Torske, and southeast near Yampil and in the Serebryanske forest area.

A non-commissioned officer from a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces "have decreased the tempo of offensive operations since the summer of 2025, but that Russian drone and aerial operations remain intense." The NCO stated that Russian forces are deploying Shahed, Molniya, and Lancet strike drones against Ukrainian positions and logistics networks.

Mashovets assessed that elements of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army, reinforced by the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, are operating along the northern part of the Lyman direction. The 25th Combined Arms Army fights in the southern sector. According to Mashovets, the 20th CAA is "attempting to reach the east (left) bank of the Siverskyi Donets River northwest of Lyman as the 25th CAA attempts to fix Ukrainian forces within its area of responsibility rather than redeploy elsewhere."

The composition of these forces raises concerns about manpower quality. Mashovets noted that both the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies "have formed battalions consisting mainly of Russian servicemembers that Russian authorities recruited in prison or coerced into military service to avoid prison."

Specialized drone elements from the Russian 10th and 16th Spetsnaz brigades and the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies continue operations in the Lyman direction, according to Mashovets. Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and 2nd Motorized Rifle Division are fighting near Karpivka, Serednie, and Shandryholove, while the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment pushes toward Stavky. The 67th Motorized Rifle Division operates near Zarichne and, alongside its 164th and 169th motorized rifle brigades and 11th Tank Brigade, advances toward Yampil.

In northern Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces advanced west of the Vovchansk Oil Extraction Plant in northwestern Vovchansk, based on geolocated footage from 2 October. Attacks continued northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Synelnykove, and Vovchanski Khutory on 1 and 2 October.

Ukrainian 2nd National Guard Corps Spokesperson Volodymyr Dehtyarev revealed that Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast "typically only recover the bodies of Russian servicemembers killed in action if the deceased servicemember held a rank above captain or relatives of deceased servicemembers pay the Russian military command." Dehtyarev reported that Russian small infantry groups attempt to seize positions near the international border between Hlyboke and Lukyantsi but face failure due to extended kill zones created by Ukrainian drone concentrations.

Ukrainian Northern Group of Forces Spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk reported that poorly trained Russian infantrymen "continue to conduct daily assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast." According to Mysnyk, Russian forces' tasks "are often as simple as seizing a single building or industrial zone to gain footholds or produce footage exaggerating Russian advances."

In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Russian forces advanced in southeastern Stepnohirsk west of Orikhiv, according to footage published on 1 October. Russian attacks on 1 and 2 October targeted areas south of Orikhiv near Novodanylivka, southwest near Lobkove and Pyatykhatky, and west near Plavni and Stepnohirsk.

A commander of a Ukrainian unit in the Zaporizhzhia direction reported that Russian forces "continue to leverage weather and terrain to conduct small infantry infiltration missions."

The fighting across multiple directions demonstrates sustained pressure along the eastern front, with Russian forces deploying substantial resources to the Lyman sector while maintaining operations in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Drone operators from various Russian units, including the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade, 54th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and 98th Airborne Division, continue striking Ukrainian positions near Rusyn Yar, Shcherbynivka, and Chasiv Yar.

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