Russia is producing weapons at an unprecedented rate while planning significant military expansion, even as it wages war in Ukraine, The Economist reported on 8 May.
Russian forces aim to grow from 1.3 million to 1.5 million active troops and establish new formations along NATO’s borders.
During 2024, Russian rearmament changed character from reconstruction to an intensified military build-up, according to a recent Danish intelligence assessment cited by The Economist. The goal is to be able “to fight on an equal footing with NATO forces.”
Russia has significantly increased its military threat toward the Baltic states in recent years. Officials warned that a ceasefire in Ukraine could allow Moscow to quickly redeploy and reinforce its forces on NATO’s northeastern flank, sharply raising security risks for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
According to Ukrainian estimates and a report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia is manufacturing more than 1,400 Iskander ballistic missiles and 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles annually. However, only 10-15% of the 1,500-2,000 tanks and 3,000 armored fighting vehicles produced each year are new. The rest are refurbished from Soviet-era stockpiles.
Military experts are divided on when Russia might pose a direct threat to NATO. American intelligence suggested Russia could reconstitute its army “during the next decade.” Norwegian intelligence estimated five to ten years “at the earliest.” Ukrainian assessments suggested five to seven years, while German estimates range from five to eight years.
Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur warned that Russia could quickly redeploy forces currently fighting in Ukraine.
“Russia could shift 50,000 troops from Ukraine to its Leningrad military district with a minimal impact on the current war,” Pevkur said. “But this would significantly change the force posture of the Russian army close to Estonia.”
The war in Ukraine reportedly severely depleted Russia’s military capabilities. General Chris Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said in April that Russia had suffered an estimated 790,000 casualties. Many junior officers needed to lead units in an expanded force have been killed or wounded.
Critics argue that Russia’s military expansion plans may be more show than substance. John Foreman, Britain’s former defense attaché in Moscow, described new formations like the 44th Army Corps as “Potemkin units.” He doubts Russia could extricate itself from Ukraine, reform its army and “march on Warsaw,” calling such scenarios “an absolute fantasy.”
Russia currently spends 6.7% of its GDP on defense, according to official figures. Despite this high spending, economic constraints limit Russia’s military capabilities. The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO has also worsened Russia’s strategic position in northern Europe.
Lithuanian intelligence suggested Russia might focus on limited military actions. “In the medium term, Russia is unlikely to be able to build up the capabilities needed for a large-scale conventional war against NATO,” Lithuania’s defense intelligence agency said. “However, Russia may develop military capabilities sufficient to launch a limited military action against one or several NATO countries.”
Sweden’s intelligence agency warned that while chances of a major war remain low, a “limited armed attack” against a Baltic state or NATO ships is entirely possible. “Such action could seem disadvantageous from a Swedish perspective, but it is important to emphasise that the Russian leadership makes decisions based on its own logic and assessment,” the agency reported.
Read also:
- Putin’s aide warns NATO’s “war games” near Kaliningrad could trigger response while Russia stages its largest military buildup since invasion of Ukraine
- Russia’s Ukraine invasion endangers global order, warns NATO chief
- Sobering update from NATO: Russia’s military now larger and more capable post-invasion
