Russia continues sustaining high-intensity offensive operations despite diminishing territorial gains, contradicting recent Western intelligence assessments that Vladimir Putin might shift to consolidating rather than expanding occupied territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) 2 May assessment.
CNN reported on 1 May that intelligence reviewed by US and Western officials suggests Putin might be pivoting to “shorter-term objectives of cementing Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territory and boosting Russia’s economy” due to concerns about Trump administration sanctions.
However, ISW identifies multiple indicators challenging this interpretation.
Russian forces have maintained offensive operations at a cost of 99 casualties per square kilometer captured—significantly higher than the 59 casualties per kilometer during late 2024, according to ISW. Despite this steep price, Russia gained only 1,627 square kilometers in the first four months of 2025 while suffering 160,600 casualties, representing a 45% slower advance rate compared to September-December 2024.
The high Russian casualty rates have led the UK intelligence to forecast that 2025 may be Russia’s deadliest war year yet.
Russia suffers 160,000 casualties in 2025 so far, heading for war’s deadliest year – UK intel
Intensified operations and tactical innovations
Rather than slowing down, Russia has increased offensive intensity in several key directions, particularly in Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. Additionally, Russian forces have launched a limited offensive operation in Sumy Oblast, further indicating Putin’s continued territorial ambitions.
The Russian military is rapidly adapting its tactics in response to Ukrainian drone capabilities, including integrating motorcycles into offensive operations. These tactical innovations suggest Russia is focused on optimizing battlefield gains rather than preparing for a defensive posture.
Poorly trained troops sustain costly war tempo
Russia has maintained these high casualty rates by rapidly deploying undertrained personnel to frontline units. According to ISW, most new Russian recruits receive just one month of training before deployment, severely limiting their combat capabilities and Russia’s ability to conduct complex operations.
“The Russian military command is currently prioritizing funneling poorly trained recruits into highly attritional infantry assaults to offset personnel losses in Ukraine while sustaining the current tempo of operations,” ISW analysts report.
This approach relies on “poorly trained, inadequately equipped infantry used as cannon fodder” and continues a pattern where Russian army recruitment barely matches daily casualty rates.
This approach has contributed to slowing Russian advances as these forces struggle against well-defended Ukrainian positions around larger towns including Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk.
Long-term strategic preparations
Furthermore, the Kremlin is implementing legal, financial, and socioeconomic measures to increase Russia’s force generation capabilities and boost drone production, the ISW says. These efforts, combined with ongoing military restructuring, suggest Russia is preparing not just for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine but potentially for a future confrontation with NATO.
Putin’s recent invocation of “Novorossiya” on 21 April signals continued commitment to maximalist territorial claims, including all of southern and eastern Ukraine, ISW reported. A recent poll found only 18% of Russian military personnel would support withdrawal from Ukraine before achieving Putin’s stated goals, indicating the Kremlin isn’t preparing its information space for any imminent peace agreement.
All this leads the ISW to conclude that Putin remains committed to his long-term military objectives of seizing all of Ukraine and undermining NATO. Were Russia to indeed consider transitioning to consolidating its grip over currently-occupied lands and abandon further offensive plans, it would slow its current offensives and shift to defense and fortifications, ISW says.
US officials have expressed skepticism about imminent peace, with Vice President JD Vance stating on 1 May that the war in Ukraine will not end “any time soon” as negotiating positions remain far apart. ISW concludes that Putin continues leveraging battlefield pressure to extract concessions from Ukraine and Western partners in any potential negotiations.
