Ukraine intelligence: North Korean forces may join new Russian offensive on Sumy, Kharkiv

North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces mastered modern combat tactics and could join new Russian offensives against Ukraine’s northeastern oblasts, according to a senior Ukrainian defense official.

This comes after previous statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who warned about potential Russian spring attacks on Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, while Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyy stated that these operations had already begun.

Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, told Japan’s NHK that North Korean forces deployed to Russia’s Kursk Oblast adapted quickly after initial setbacks.

“Unfortunately, we can talk about the evolution, about the successful training of the North Korean military,” Chernyak said.

According to Chernyak, North Korean troops suffered approximately 5,000 casualties, but 6,000 soldiers remain combat-ready in Kursk. When North Korean troops were first reported fighting for Russia in October 2024, their numbers totalled approximately 12,000–13,000 soldiers.

North Korean troops in Ukraine rely on near-suicidal tactics, which involve grenade detonations to avoid capture and using soldiers as bait for drones.

Chernyak noted that after an unsuccessful large-scale offensive that resulted in heavy losses from Ukrainian artillery and drones, North Korean forces changed their approach.

The North Korean soldiers now move in smaller groups of one or two people and have learned to use unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare equipment. They have also adopted Russian battlefield tactics and weaponry despite initial concerns about language barriers.

Chernyak explained that North Korean forces operate effectively as assault units even with minimal communication. They receive basic instructions to “reach this or that frontier” and then secure positions without requiring constant contact with Russian commanders.

He also highlighted North Korea’s material support for Russia’s war effort, noting that half of the artillery shells used by Russian forces are North Korean-made. 

Since late 2023, North Korea dispatched approximately 64 shipments to Russia, delivering an estimated 4 to 6 million artillery shells. 

In addition, North Korea supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, long-range artillery systems, and multiple launch rocket systems. Ukrainian intelligence estimates include 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, 120 long-range self-propelled artillery units, and 120 multiple launch rocket systems. ​

North Korea benefited more than $20 billion from its involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine,  according to a new analysis from a South Korean defense think tank. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) report indicates that Pyongyang’s military cooperation with Moscow became a substantial revenue source, primarily through munitions supplies to Russian forces.

The Ukrainian intelligence official expressed concern that North Korean troops will take their battlefield experience back home, representing a threat not only to Ukraine but also to the Asia-Pacific region.