Last month, Kristofer Harrison of the Dekleptocracy Alliance, announced that his project identified a powerful but unused sanction that could significantly impact Russia’s military capabilities in Ukraine. According to the report, Russia’s critical industrial vulnerability is its dependence on specialized lubricant additives essential for military and industrial equipment. While Russia has abundant oil resources, it lacks the chemical industry sophistication to produce these crucial additives domestically.
The report notes that if US President Donald Trump truly aimed to bring Russia to the negotiating table, he has leverage available.
“If Donald Trump wanted to put the squeeze on Putin and force him to the negotiating table, he wouldn’t be talking about a Ukraine mineral deal. He’d use the cold, hard leverage of the rule of law and the influence the US has over global commerce. Russia has a very nerdy but vital industrial chokepoint: Russian lubricants.“
Dekleptocracy researchers discovered that when Western companies withdrew from Russia in 2022, the country experienced “a long-lasting and severe shortage of industrial lubricant precursor chemicals.” The report reveals that currently a single Chinese producer, Xinxiang Richful Lubricant Additive Company, stepped in to fill this gap and now serves as Russia’s primary supplier.
“Ok, Stop Giggling. Industrial lubricants are essential. Anything with an engine or two metal parts rubbing together needs it. Cars, trains, machinery, tanks, artillery, you name it,” the report states.
Chinese company vulnerability creates leverage
The report identifies that only four companies dominate the global industrial lubricant additives market – three American (Chevron Oronite, Lubrizol, Afton) and one British (Infineum). When these companies left Russia, Richful seized the opportunity.
Importantly, Richful operates within US jurisdiction, making it vulnerable to sanctions.
“In 2024, Richful opened an office down the road from one of the largest naval bases in the world, Hampton Roads, Virginia,” the report notes. “They also poached an executive from a Western competitor.“
The Chinese firm reportedly secured Shell Marine Oil as a client in January 2024 and aims to add ExxonMobil to its portfolio.
Limited alternatives for Russia
The report addresses whether Russia could simply source these additives elsewhere, concluding there’s “no quick fix.” It highlights that lubricant formulations must be precisely matched to specific base oils and engines, making substitution time-consuming.
While Belarus-based EddieTek produces similar additives, its capacity of 40,000 metric tons annually falls far short of Russia’s import needs of approximately 82,679 tons. The report suggests Russia likely already includes EddieTek’s production in its domestic consumption figures.
Report offers four-step strategy to Trump
The Dekleptocracy Alliance outlines a four-point strategy that Trump could implement:
- Sanction Richful to cut off its US expansion, blocking Western business opportunities and access to capital markets.
- Pressure China to stop supporting Richful’s exports to Russia, suggesting Beijing “won’t risk a broader trade war over a single company.”
- Expose Richful’s deals with Iran, as records indicate the company also supplies the Iranian market.
- Target Richful’s supply chain by disrupting the flow of key raw materials needed for producing chemical additives.
Significance for Russia’s war machine
The report emphasizes this approach could effectively pressure Putin without direct military confrontation.
“Putin is waging a war that depends on machinery – tanks, planes, trains, trucks, and factories. None of that functions without lubricants, which, at this point, come almost entirely from Richful,” the report states.
The author suggests this leverage would be more effective than “vague claims about ending the war overnight” and question why Trump hasn’t utilized this option despite his administration allegedly being aware of it.
“Yes, his people know about this, and that Trump isn’t using it tells you all you need to know,” the report concludes.
