Russia keeps making demands and slowing down the process to get as many concessions as possible.
According to the NYT, this is exactly the kind of strategy that Russia employs in its negotiations with the US and ultimately Ukraine.
The Trump administration has set out to secure a series of limited cease-fire deals, arguing that the modest agreements will pave the way for a broader truce and eventually a peace deal to end the conflict,” NYT writes, adding “But so far, these incremental deals have largely been a way for Russia to win concessions from Ukraine and good will from a White House eager to be seen as the peacemaker.”
The publication notes that another limited agreement brokered by Washington- a 30-day halt in strikes by Russia and Ukraine against energy targets- “also benefits Moscow, given the extensive damage Ukrainian strikes have inflicted on oil and gas installations across Russia, and it came with no clear enforcement mechanism. Both sides quickly accused each other of continuing such strikes.”
While NYT acknowledged that Trump believes that Russia might be dragging their feet, it also quoted Daniel Fried, a former top US diplomat and fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, who has negotiated with the Russians in the past: “It seems clear that the Russians are stalling, and they are very good at that. The Russians are drawing this out and loading it with conditions to send us down a rabbit hole of complexity.”
Fried added that given that Ukraine has destroyed much of Russia’s navy in the Black Sea to resume the grain shipments in 2023, “the Black Sea deal to be seen as balanced, it would need to include a clear benefit to Kyiv, such as a commitment by the Russians to halt attacks on the southern port of Odesa or on all Ukrainian agriculture export facilities.”
Meanwhile, Andrey Sizov, director of Sovecon, an agriculture market analysis firm, believes that the possible Black Sea truce is not a step ahead as Ukraine has been exporting grain successfully through the Black Sea since late 2023, and Russia has been exporting both oil and grain despite increased costs
“In my view, it shows that progress toward a full truce, toward a full cease-fire, is quite limited, if any,” he said.
