Russia will expand in all directions—and Trump’s envoy just gave the go-ahead

For Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s longtime strategist, Russia’s destiny is expansion. First Ukraine, then wherever else Moscow can impose its will. For years, the US rejected this vision, refusing to recognize land grabs seen as “referendums” and standing firm against Russian revisionism.

Then Steve Witkoff spoke.

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East repeated Kremlin propaganda, falsely claiming that Ukraine’s occupied territories are Russian because they are “Russian-speaking” and have held “referendums” in favor of Russian rule.

This signals a dangerous shift: for the first time, an American official is openly talking about Putin’s logic of conquest.

That the only real obstacle, in Witkoff’s view, is not Russia’s imperial ambitions but Ukraine’s refusal to surrender.

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Surkov envisions a Russia that “gathers lands.” Witkoff just sent the message that America might not stop it.

Steve Witkoff is not a policymaker, but his words mark a dangerous precedent: the first time a US official has so openly toyed with legitimizing Russia’s theft of Ukrainian land. And history shows what happens when Moscow senses weakness.

Putin thrives on Western ambiguity. When the Obama administration hesitated on Crimea in 2014, Russia annexed it without effort. When Macron pondered giving Russia “security guarantees” in 2022, the Kremlin doubled down on its war. Now, with Witkoff repeating Kremlin propaganda, Putin hears something new: Washington might be ready to concede.

It’s already happening. Just days ago, Surkov bluntly declared that Russia “will expand in all directions.” Moscow is demanding the West lift sanctions in exchange for “peace,” a clear strategy to solidify its territorial gains before its next attack. The US response is not pushing Russia out but finding ways to make Ukraine surrender on Putin’s terms.

Surkov’s lines serve as a blueprint for Kremlin policy makers. For decades, Russia has used the same playbook to justify its wars: claim that Russian speakers are in danger, invade under the cover of “protection,” and never leave. Witkoff’s reckless endorsement of Moscow’s propaganda only makes this strategy more effective.

“They are Russian-speaking, and there have been referendums,” Witkoff stated.

We’ve seen this before. In 1992, Russia fueled a war in Moldova’s Transnistria, using “protecting Russian speakers” as a pretext. Russian troops are still there. In 2008, Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Georgia, claiming to defend Russian-speaking Ossetians. Today, 20% of Georgia remains under Russian occupation. In 2014, Putin justified his annexation of Crimea by falsely claiming that ethnic Russians were under threat. That same year, Russian-backed militants seized Donbas, using fabricated referendums as cover.

In 2022, the U.S Department of State explicitly clarified: “The United States will never recognize these illegal attempts to seize territory that does not belong to Russia.”

“The overwhelming majority of people have indicated they want to be under Russian rule,” Witkoff claimed.

Now, Witkoff signals that Washington might tolerate this expansionist logic. Why would Moscow stop at Ukraine? The Baltics, with their Russian-speaking populations, would be next. Kazakhstan, where Putin once claimed that “Kazakhs never had a state,” is already on high alert. With every Western retreat, the Kremlin advances.

For years, the United States categorically rejected Russia’s claims over occupied Ukraine. The official position was clear: land seized by force could not be legitimized. That principle, core to international stability since World War II, has been the foundation of US policy.

Then Steve Witkoff echoed the Kremlin’s rhetoric. Whether intentional or not, his words suggest that Washington is now entertaining Russia’s claims. And once that door is open, the consequences are catastrophic.

If the world accepts this in Ukraine, why wouldn’t China use the same playbook in Taiwan? Why wouldn’t Iran justify aggression in the Middle East with “referendums”? North Korea could stage a forced vote in the South tomorrow and call it “democratic reunification.”

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This is bigger than Ukraine. It is about whether the post-WWII order, designed to prevent large-scale border changes through war, still holds. If the US now blesses land grabs, the very concept of sovereignty dies. And in its place, a new reality emerges: one where the strong take from the weak, and the world simply watches.

Furthermore, Witkoffs statements have direct implications on the negotiation process. Donald Trump has built his brand on making deals, and ending the war in Ukraine is his biggest test yet. His team understands that negotiating with Putin is not like closing a business deal. It requires coercive diplomacy, a combination of pressure and incentives to force an adversary to the table.

But before Trump has even begun, his own special envoy, Steve Witkoff, may have crippled his leverage by signaling that the US might recognize Russia’s land grabs.

Putin exploits ambiguity. As Sean Monaghan of the Center for Strategic & International Studies notes, “the biggest challenge to coercive diplomacy in Ukraine is mutual mistrust.” If Ukraine cannot trust Russia to abide by a deal, and if Russia cannot trust the US to follow through on threats, the very premise of negotiation collapses.

Trump’s approach, “We can do it the easy way, or the hard way… It’s time to ‘MAKE A DEAL’”, relies on maintaining pressure. But now, thanks to Witkoff, Russia has reason to believe Washington might be open to legitimizing its conquests, shifting the balance in Putin’s favor.

Trump wants to be seen as the ultimate dealmaker, the man who forces Putin to back down. But with one reckless interview, Witkoff just gave Moscow the upper hand, before talks have even started.

The stakes could not be higher. If Putin sees weakness, he will push further, in Ukraine, in the Baltics, and in Kazakhstan. The next war will not be a possibility; it will be a certainty. The only way to prevent it is to deny him victory now.

Khusanboy Kotibjonov

Khusanboy Kotibjonov is a political science student at New York University and research assistant at Wilf Family Department of Politics

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