The Musk factor: Would Ukraine’s frontline really collapse without Starlink?

The US support for Ukraine has wavered — from Trump briefly pausing military aid and intelligence sharing to slashing 83% of critical USAID programs — casting uncertainty over Ukraine’s access to Starlink, a vital lifeline for its defense.

Concerns spiked after a social media clash between Elon Musk and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski over the billionaire’s satellite network in Ukraine.

“No matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals,” Musk posted on X, claiming that without it, Ukraine’s “entire front line would collapse.”

In response, Sikorski noted that Poland funded Ukraine’s Starlink subscription and warned that shutdown threats would push the search for alternatives. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio jumped in, telling him to be grateful, while Musk dismissed him as a “small man.”

Neither Washington nor Kyiv commented on a potential Starlink shutdown. However, after the US suspended intelligence sharing in March, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov hinted at seeking alternatives.

“As for Starlink, we are already working on it; there are alternatives,” the minister stated at the Ukraine.Year 2025 forum.

Euromaidan Press took a deep dive into Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink for both civilian and military needs — and whether domestic or European alternatives could step up if Musk pulls the plug.

From tomorrow’s rockets to today’s warzone

Starlink terminals arrived in Ukraine just two days into Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Musk swiftly sent thousands to restore connectivity after Russia’s offensive and cyberattacks crippled Ukraine’s communications in the early days of the war.

“Starlink played an important role in the rapid restoration of communication in critical places and de-occupied territories,” Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, said in 2022.

However, despite earning nationwide praise in Ukraine for his support, Musk quickly grew critical of Kyiv’s wartime strategy.

In his 2023 biography, Walter Isaacson claimed the tech tycoon had disabled Starlink to thwart a Ukrainian drone strike on Russian warships in fall 2022 — a pivotal moment when Ukraine was reclaiming Russia’s gains in Kharkiv Oblast in the east and Kherson in the south. Isaacson later rebuffed this statement, saying it was based on “mistaken” information.

In February 2023, SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell announced that the company had requested Ukraine halt using Starlink for drone operations and refused to extend its coverage to Russian-occupied areas, stating it was intended solely for humanitarian purposes.

In February 2025, The Washington Post, with confirmation from Ukrainian soldiers, reported that Russian troops were using Starlink terminals to aid in their recent capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. SpaceX denied any connection to the Russian government, insisting it does not do business with Russia.

Initially funded by SpaceX, the US Department of Defense took over the cost of Starlink operations in Ukraine in July 2023 – the move Isaacson related to Musk’s desire to distance himself from the responsibility for the war.

By late 2023, Poland also emerged as a major contributor, lending nearly half of Ukraine’s Starlink terminals, though they are unlikely to be returned. By the end of 2024, Poland had supplied 24,400 terminals, covering $50 million annually—about a quarter of the estimated $200 million yearly cost.

Not coincidentally, Reuters reports that Musk’s threat to shut off Starlink if Ukraine walks away from a mineral deal sparked a reaction in Warsaw. Polish digital minister Krzysztof Gawkowski warned that cutting Ukraine’s Starlink access would trigger “a big international relations crisis” between Poland and the US, vowing that Wasrsaw would keep funding Ukraine’s subscription.

20 milliseconds that change everything

By mid-2023, SpaceX had supplied about 42,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine via its digital ministry, with an additional 100,000 reportedly brought in by volunteers, businesses, and individuals.

Starlink’s low-Earth-orbit satellites deliver blazing-fast internet with just a 20-millisecond delay, outpacing competitors. It keeps Ukraine’s military, aid organizations, and 150,000 civilians connected, even in areas devastated by missile strikes and Russia’s power grid attacks.

Ukrainian forces also use up to 100,000 terminals for various operational needs, including artillery coordination and connecting headquarters with frontline positions. The network’s quick 15-minute setup also makes it highly effective for combat deployments.

“Starlink provides Internet connectivity to the battalion’s and brigade’s control observation point,” says defense technology expert Lyuba Shipovich. The entire hierarchy of command sees what is happening on the front line, enabling real-time coordination.”

Starlink’s jam-resistant technology gives it a crucial edge over traditional radio signals, making it vital for battlefield communication. Without it, evacuations and target location sharing would be blocked by range limitations, jamming, or security flaws in standard radios.

Most importantly, Starlink is essential for drone warfare, a key technology shaping the Russian-Ukrainian war since its outbreak in 2014. Ukrainian forces depend on drones for surveillance, target identification for kamikaze drones, and guiding artillery fire.

Long-range drones — capable of reaching up to 620 miles — are also crucial for striking Russian military bases and energy facilities deep behind the front lines, crippling its war machine.

“The video signal from the drone must be transmitted without delay: first to the control center, then to the pilot, and back,” a press officer from a Defense Forces unit in the Kharkiv Oblast told Euromaidan Press. “This determines the speed of detecting enemy […] and making precise adjustments in real-time.”

Ukrainian forces use Starlink for various drone operations, from reconnaissance units streaming real-time battlefield data to sea drones and long-range UAVs, enabling quick responses to attacks.

“Losing Starlink would be a game changer,” says Melinda Haring, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, noting that Russia now matches Ukraine in drone usage and artillery shells.

Not-so-stellar European satellites

The Musk-Sikorski clash has pushed European companies and their backers to look for alternatives. The Financial Times repored that EU governments and institutions are in talks with four satellite providers to replace SpaceX’s Starlink for Ukraine’s defense and infrastructure needs.

However, industry experts caution that European satellite networks cannot match Starlink’s capabilities. Luke Palermo Serra, Research Director at Analysys Mason, stated that even a combined European effort would struggle to replicate Starlink’s connectivity.

Unlike Starlink, European alternatives use geostationary satellites, leading to higher latency and slower speeds. These systems are more region-focused or specialized, catering to government and military communications, while Starlink provides global coverage and direct-to-consumer broadband.

The EU is eyeing Govsatcom, a secure satellite network pooling member states’ satellite resources. French MEP Christophe Grudler even suggested fast-tracking its launch by skipping certification. However, while set to debut this year as a stopgap, its full capabilities remain uncertain.

Of the European alternatives, Franco-British operator Eutelsat/OneWeb stands out as the most promising. With plans to “provide an alternative for government and defense applications,” cooperation with Kyiv is looking more likely, as reported by Reuters.

Eutelsat’s 2023 merger with Britain’s OneWeb made it the only company, alongside Starlink, to control a global-coverage constellation in low Earth orbit. CEO Eva Berneke claims that “reaching Starlink’s level of deployment would take a couple of months, not years.”

However, Eutelsat’s deployment in Ukraine may face reputational challenges. In December 2024, The Insider revealed that the company continued broadcasting Russian propaganda and military recruitment ads. Its 36D satellite, which serves 30% of households in Russia and post-Soviet states, also covers Ukraine and Russian-occupied territories.

Despite EU sanctions and Ukrainian bans on 16 Russian propaganda channels, Eutelsat continues its broadcasts. By enabling Russian media, the company risks allowing Russia to hijack Ukrainian signals and exploit network vulnerabilities for cyberattacks.

In mid-December, the EU unveiled plans for the IRIS² satellite network, set to launch by 2027 with initial government services in 2030. While it promises lower latency and better European coverage than Starlink’s global reach, IRIS² aims to boost cybersecurity and protect government communications, positioning itself as a serious competitor to Musk’s network.

However, Eutelsat will also contribute to IRIS²’s record €10.6 billion funding and gain access to its capabilities, raising risks for Ukraine.

The promise and perils of Ukrainian tech

Before Starlink, Ukraine depended on slower, costlier systems like British Inmarsat and UAE’s Thuraya, which struggled to meet the demands of wartime communication. Both systems use geostationary and have slower speeds and higher latency compared to Starlink’s fast, low-latency service.

Additionally, Inmarsat’s 40-meter detection range and Thuraya’s data vulnerabilities risk compromising Ukrainian positions.

Kyiv forces also tap into alternative wireless tech, ensuring operations can run smoothly even without Starlink.

“Ukrainian forces have operated in Russia’s Kursk Oblast for nearly a year without Starlink, and their operations have been largely successful,” said a military unit representative.

He added that his brigade relies on Wi-Fi bridges, transmitting signals over 10-30 km (9-19 miles) with fiber optics connected to a transmitter and antenna.

“With proper antenna positioning, high-quality broadband signals can travel tens of kilometers, though it’s technically challenging,” he said, adding that the Russians use this technology as well.

Ukrainian army also use LTE networks and aerostats (balloons) with signal repeaters, though these alternatives are trickier to deploy.

Additionally, Kyiv operates its own ICEYE satellite, purchased by the Serhiy Prytula Charitable Foundation with $17 million raised in a nationwide campaign in June 2022.

Equipped with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for reconnaissance, the satellite aids military surveillance. However, without internet access, Starlink remains essential for quick and reliable frontline communication.

Would Starlink’s loss derail Ukraine’s operations?

Experts warn that cutting off Starlink could cripple military communications and frontline coordination, leaving Ukrainian forces vulnerable.

“Everything related to control, surveillance, and inflicting fire damage – whether by drops or correction – requires Starlink or any other type of reliable communication,” said a military unit representative.

A Ukrainian drone operator, call sign Spaniard, adds that the loss of Starlink would disrupt the flow of information between the front lines and the rear.

“Streaming, which is sometimes used to adjust artillery, will disappear, and operational intelligence will be lost,” he told Euromaidan Press.

Lyuba Shipovich cautions that cutting off Starlink risks disrupting operational coordination, leaving Ukrainian infantry vulnerable on the frontlines.

“The lowest tactical level will be most critically affected by the lack of streams. This would blind our army, which means more attacks on infantry,” she said.

She adds that at the strategic level, it could lead to setbacks in key areas and weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position in peace talks with Russia.

“In the short term, there could be a failure at the front, which would consequently impact decisions at the military-political command level, cooperation with allies, and ceasefire negotiations,” she added.