NATO should start preparing now by making its primary airbases less vulnerable to Russian Kedr medium-range ballistic missiles also known as Oreshnik, says Decker Eveleth in a report for Foreign Policy.
This can be achieved by dispersing aircraft to secondary runways and highways across Europe, making them harder to target.
The report highlights that the use of long-range ballistic missiles could significantly alter Russia’s strategy in a future conflict with NATO, posing a real threat.
Despite its high cost, the missile is well-suited for attacking airbases, where its submunition can cause substantial harm.
“In a war with NATO, Russia is likely to attack the alliance’s air bases in the opening days of a conflict. Russia is well aware of NATO’s air superiority, and it hopes to give its forces some breathing room by destroying—or at least delaying—NATO’s ability to respond,” says the report.
The analyst points out that modern fighter jets, especially the F-35, are too complex to repair in field conditions. Decades of budget cuts have also concentrated NATO’s air forces on a few key bases, making them especially vulnerable to Kedr missiles.
While Russian missiles with conventional warheads failed to incapacitate key Ukrainian airbases due to low accuracy and effective air defense, Kedr can help Russia resolve this issue.
“Based on Russia’s performance in Ukraine, it may take dozens of conventional Iskander missiles to destroy aircraft at major air bases. It would take far fewer Oreshniks to achieve a similar effect,” says the analysis.
Experts suggest that using Kedr missiles gives Russia more non-nuclear options, lowering the risk of early nuclear escalation. They provide Russia with increased opportunities to disrupt NATO’s operations.
The problem is that European defense systems are not fully equipped to counter medium-range ballistic missiles. While many NATO bases are protected by layered missile defense, Kedr can fly beyond the interception range of most systems and descends too quickly for interceptors like the Patriot air defense system. Interceptors capable of stopping them, such as the Arrow 3 and SM-3 Block IIA, will likely be deployed in limited quantities if current procurement trends continue.
“Regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends, in a decade or two, NATO may face a rearmed Russia wielding a reconstituted arsenal in which large conventional ballistic missiles like the Oreshnik feature prominently,” the report concludes.
Related:
- Moscow’s first ICBM attack: Russia hits Dnipro with intercontinental ballistic missile injuring two
- CNN: Russia breaks Cold War deterrence doctrine with multiple warhead missile strike on Dnipro
- Two children among eight dead in Russian missile attack on Sumy
- Russia’s deadly missile attack on Zaporizhzhia kills six, injures 23 Ukrainians
