As concerns grow over US military assistance to Ukraine under President Donald Trump amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, European leaders are working to bolster their support for Kyiv. A €20 billion EU military aid package is under discussion, while Ukraine ramps up its domestic defense production to sustain its war effort. Ukraine backed by European allies can continue fighting for many months, according to Politico.
European governments are rushing to demonstrate support for Ukraine. More than a dozen leaders visited Kyiv on 24 February 2025, with many more joining virtually, while the EU works on a new military aid package.
“The most powerful leverage Trump has on Ukraine is to threaten non-delivery of weapons. We have, in my view, six months before we would really start to feel the lack of weapons on the front line,” former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Politico.
European leaders have taken notice, with German Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz stating that Europe must work toward full defense “independence” from the US.
Politico says US military aid remains crucial for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s military strength and European support
Ukraine remains the largest military force in Europe outside of Russia, with 980,000 soldiers under arms and control over a 1,500-kilometer frontline. Ukrainian forces also hold approximately 400 square kilometers inside Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Vladimir Putin aims to expand the Russian military by 180,000 troops to reach 1.5 million. Russia has also received support from North Korean troops in the Kursk fighting.
Despite heavy casualties – Zelenskyy recently confirmed 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 390,000 wounded over the three years – Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s offensive. Russian forces, with troop reinforcements from North Korea, are advancing slowly, suffering over 1,000 casualties per day, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russian casualty estimates range from 600,000 to 750,000 killed and wounded, according to Politico.
Despite being outnumbered, Ukraine has maintained its defense using domestic weapons and arms supplied by allies. Kyiv has received US-supplied ATACMS and HIMARS missiles, European SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and Soviet-era tanks from former Warsaw Pact nations.
Meanwhile, Russia receives military supplies from Iran and North Korea, which have provided drones, missiles, artillery systems and up to 8 million artillery shells, Politico reports.
The Russian army has absorbed massive losses throughout the war. IISS calculated that 1,400 main battle tanks were destroyed last year, but Russia continues drawing from diminishing Soviet-era stockpiles and increased domestic production.
Ukraine expands domestic weapons production
Ukraine is increasingly focusing on domestic defense manufacturing. Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian production now accounts for 30% of the country’s military needs, with drones, electronic warfare systems, and artillery shells being key priorities. Several EU nations have signed direct contracts with Ukrainian defense firms to accelerate arms production, though officials warn that replacing lost US aid will take time.
Despite increased domestic output, Ukraine remains dependent on Western support.
What happens if US aid stops?
A full US withdrawal would cut Ukraine’s foreign military aid by nearly half. Since February 2022, the US has provided €64 billion in military support, while European nations, including the UK and Norway, have contributed nearly €62 billion.
Ukraine’s 2025 defense budget will reach 2.2 trillion hryvnias (€50 billion), accounting for 26% of the country’s GDP. Meanwhile, Russia’s military budget last year stood at 13.1 trillion rubles ($145.9 billion), or 6.7% of its GDP.
Although Europe could theoretically replace US aid, the question remains whether it has the political will to do so.
Zelenskyy insists that Ukraine will continue fighting, regardless of Trump’s decisions.
“Everyone understands that we are quite stable today. We are much stronger than we were at the beginning of the invasion,” he said.
At the same time, Zelenskyy directly appealed to the US for continued support, stating, “For our people, for life in general, it is so important that American assistance remains.”
Related:
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- Rubio sets goal for “next” talks: defining war exit conditions for Russia, Ukraine
- Trump says he may visit Moscow, not on 9 May but “within weeks”
- ISW: Putin remains committed to war, Kremlin rejects ceasefire without Ukraine’s full capitulation
- Trump refused to call Putin a dictator: “I don’t use those words lightly”
- Zelenskyy: I’m ready to step down as president for peace or in return for NATO membership
- Russian advances would take 83 years to capture remaining Ukraine, ISW says in its Ukraine Fact Sheet
