ISW: Russian tries to envelop Pokrovsk increasing attacks east of the city

The Russian command exploits weaker Ukrainian positions east of Pokrovsk, overall prioritizing Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions across the front.
isw russian tries envelop pokrovsk increasing attacks east city command exploits weaker ukrainian positions overall prioritizing kurakhove directions across front forces have intensified offensive operations targeting defenses advancing toward strategic
Map: ISW
ISW: Russian tries to envelop Pokrovsk increasing attacks east of the city

Russian forces have intensified offensive operations east of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, targeting weaker Ukrainian defenses and advancing toward strategic objectives, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 January. These actions are likely part of a broader strategy to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast, the think tank says.

For months, Russia has been pushing to capture the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Chasiv Yar and other Ukrainian strongholds.

Recent geolocated footage confirms Russian advances in Vozdvyzhenka, Tymofiivka, and southeastern Yelyzavetivka, all east and/or south of Pokrovsk. Russian forces reportedly consolidated positions along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway and moved toward settlements such as Baranivka and Vodyane Druhe. The ISW has not independently verified all reported claims.

ISW indicates that elements of the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) are heavily involved in operations east of Pokrovsk, while units from the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly part of the Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps) are split between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, Russia’s prioritized frontline sectors.

Broader objectives and strategic implications

ISW assesses that the envelopment of Pokrovsk remains a key operational goal for Russian forces in this area. Reports suggest that weaker Ukrainian defensive positions south and east of Pokrovsk are being exploited to facilitate advances toward Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s administrative boundary.

Kostyantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military observer, noted that Russia reinforced its groupings east of Pokrovsk with units from the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 137th Motorized Rifle Brigade. The intensification of attacks since late December 2024 coincides with efforts to consolidate gains in open fields and smaller settlements.

In September 2024, the Russian military reprioritized operations in the region, focusing on Selydove (southwest of Pokrovsk), Kurakhove, and Vuhledar rather than Pokrovsk. Recent developments indicate a return to prioritizing Pokrovsk envelopment through incremental gains eastward and potential advances toward Novoekonomichne, according to ISW.

Elements of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade have also been deployed to Kurakhove, where operations included seizing the Kurakhivske Thermal Power Plant. ISW reports that Russian forces may view this brigade as a tactical penetration unit critical for achieving regional objectives.

ISW calls Pokrovsk and Kurakhove “Russia’s two most prioritized sectors of the frontline.”

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