Two US intelligence assessment suggests Russia is preparing to deploy its newly developed Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine potentially within days.
The missile was first deployed in combat on 21 November, striking the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on 21 November. Ukrainian and US sources identified the missile as a ballistic missile potentially derived from the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
A week after the strike on Dnipro, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia was preparing to use the Oreshnik missile system against “decision-making centers” in Kyiv.
The US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated in December that Russia may launch the missile by the end of December or sooner.
According to the officials, Russia currently possesses only a handful of Oreshnik missiles, which carry a smaller warhead compared to other missiles regularly used against Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also claimed earlier that Oreshnik’s multiple warheads can penetrate targets at 10 Mach and are virtually immune to interception. “A sufficient number of these advanced weapon systems simply makes the use of nuclear weapons almost unnecessary,” Putin said.
The missile’s deployment follows Putin’s revised nuclear doctrine and President Biden’s decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons. The Russian Defense Ministry has also warned of potential retaliation after Ukraine used US-made ATACMS missiles to strike a military air base in the Rostov Oblast.
The Pentagon has characterized the Oreshnik as an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile, noting it is not technically a hypersonic missile.
This potential missile launch occurs against the backdrop of shifting US political dynamics, with President-elect Donald Trump claiming for a ceasefire and suggesting Ukraine might receive reduced military support.
Read also:
- ISW: Deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus does not increase the risk of strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries
- UK intel: Russia’s Oreshnik missile likely deployed for strategic messaging
- Putin threatens to strike “decision-making centers in Kyiv” with high-precision weapon Oreshnik
