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US and Europe consider granting Ukraine ”punishing blow” capability to prevent future ceasefire violations

Several officials even suggested that Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union.
byBenjamin Looijen
22/11/2024
2 minute read
ukrainian soldier on frontline
Ukrainian soldier. Photo: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy via Telegram.
US and Europe consider granting Ukraine ”punishing blow” capability to prevent future ceasefire violations

European and United States’ officials are currently discussing arming Ukraine to such an extent that it can deliver a decisive ”punishing blow” to Russia, in case the latter country would violate a potential future negotiated cease-fire.

The discussions between Western powers about potentially arming Ukraine to deliver a “punishing blow” against Russia represent a shift in deterrence strategy, as traditional security guarantees like NATO membership remain unlikely. The stakes are particularly high given Ukraine’s demonstrated resilience against a more powerful opponent and the need to establish credible deterrence mechanisms for any future peace agreement.

As reported by The New York Times, the one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Trump’s presidency.

Therefore, the US and Europe are ‘‘discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient enough” to give Ukraine a leverage in the future against Russia, the media outlet writes.

Several officials even suggested that Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, said in an interview that for a successful cease-fire, Ukraine and its allies must reverse the momentum on the front line to set conditions for talks.

In addition, Ukraine must also have sufficient firepower in reserve to deter any cease-fire violations, he said, for example with an arsenal of longer-range weaponry to inflict immediate damage if Russia resumes hostilities.

Ukraine’s army, though on a back foot now, has held out for more than two and a half years against a larger, more powerful opponent. “The fact that we went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson is a success,” Zagorodnyuk said.

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